The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Udinese v Fiorentina

2026-11-29 11:30 UTC — Serie A - Italy

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Udinese (Local)

Prediction 28.99%3.45fair odd
EV -1.45%
Edge -0.426%
Kelly -0.604%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.75%28.83%28.99%30.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.173.203.4035.09%31.51%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fiorentina (Visit)

Prediction 44.88%2.23fair odd
EV -1.27%
Edge -0.578%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.18%44.87%44.88%46.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.852.092.102.2054.05%47.89%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.14%3.83fair odd
EV -0.937%
Edge -0.247%
Kelly -0.336%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.75%26.31%26.14%27.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.513.503.7931.25%28.52%28.57%26.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Udinese (Local): 28.99%; Fiorentina (Visit): 44.88%; Draw: 26.14%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.83. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.79, with an expected value of -0.937%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -1.45%E -0.426%K -0.604%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -8.00%E -3.90%K -7.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -5.90%E -1.64%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-09 13:15
1xBet🎯3.38I 29.59%NM 29.11%EV -2.03%E -0.600%K -0.852%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 44.93%EV -1.72%E -0.786%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.96%EV -0.937%E -0.247%K -0.336%G +0.000%1.6%2026-11-09 13:20
Pinnacle🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.90%EV -4.35%E -1.32%K -1.89%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.98%EV -4.86%E -2.29%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.12%EV -4.60%E -1.26%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.9%2026-11-09 13:25
Marathon Bet🎯3.28I 30.49%NM 29.14%EV -4.93%E -1.50%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 44.88%EV -4.41%E -2.07%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.98%EV -3.81%E -1.04%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.6%2026-11-09 13:20
betfred_uk🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -7.25%E -2.26%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -1.27%E -0.578%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -8.52%E -2.43%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-09 13:20
Betr (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -7.25%E -2.26%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -3.52%E -1.64%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -8.52%E -2.43%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-09 13:20
Winamax (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -10.14%E -3.27%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -5.76%E -2.74%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.52%E -2.43%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-09 13:20
LeoVegas🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -10.14%E -3.27%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.74%EV -5.76%E -2.74%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -9.82%E -2.85%K -4.01%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-09 13:20
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -10.14%E -3.27%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -5.76%E -2.74%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.13%E -3.27%K -4.64%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-09 13:20
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 28.32%EV -13.04%E -4.35%K -6.52%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 45.93%EV -16.98%E -9.18%K -19.98%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.75%EV -13.74%E -4.17%K -5.98%G +0.000%17.7%2026-11-09 13:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 30.03%EV -17.39%E -6.10%K -9.40%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 43.22%EV -11.14%E -5.63%K -11.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.75%EV -16.36%E -5.11%K -7.44%G +0.000%16.8%2026-11-09 13:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.92I 34.25%NM 29.40%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.92%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.69%16.5%2026-11-09 13:20

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