The School of Odds
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Sassuolo v Lazio

2026-10-27 17:30 UTC — Serie A - Italy

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sassuolo (Local)

Prediction 33.15%3.02fair odd
EV -1.87%
Edge -0.633%
Kelly -0.955%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.99%33.07%33.16%34.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.782.802.9640.00%35.93%35.71%33.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lazio (Visit)

Prediction 38.78%2.58fair odd
EV -1.89%
Edge -0.747%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.95%38.79%38.91%40.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.382.402.5346.51%41.99%41.67%39.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.07%3.56fair odd
EV -0.630%
Edge -0.178%
Kelly -0.248%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.53%28.14%27.93%29.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.323.303.5431.25%30.09%30.30%28.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sassuolo (Local): 33.15%; Lazio (Visit): 38.78%; Draw: 28.07%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.56. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.54, with an expected value of -0.630%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 33.27%EV -1.87%E -0.633%K -0.955%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.92%EV -1.89%E -0.747%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.82%EV -0.630%E -0.178%K -0.248%G +0.000%1.6%2026-10-18 19:59
Pinnacle🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.31%EV -2.20%E -0.747%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.28%EV -3.44%E -1.38%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.42%EV -9.05%E -2.79%K -4.04%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-18 23:04
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -2.20%E -0.747%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.52%EV -4.99%E -2.04%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -10.17%E -3.18%K -4.62%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-18 22:59
Marathon Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.25%EV -4.52%E -1.57%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.92%EV -4.61%E -1.87%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.83%EV -3.44%E -0.999%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-18 19:49
Bovada🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.29%EV -5.52%E -1.94%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.95%EV -3.05%E -1.22%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -7.37%E -2.23%K -3.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-18 23:02
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -5.52%E -1.94%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.25%EV -6.93%E -2.89%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -4.56%E -1.34%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-18 22:59
Codere (IT)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.98%EV -7.18%E -2.56%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.83%EV -4.99%E -2.04%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -1.75%E -0.501%K -0.701%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 23:05
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -7.18%E -2.56%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -6.93%E -2.89%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -8.77%E -2.70%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-18 23:00
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -7.18%E -2.56%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -6.93%E -2.89%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -8.77%E -2.70%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-18 23:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -7.18%E -2.56%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -6.93%E -2.89%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -8.77%E -2.70%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-18 22:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.02%EV -7.18%E -2.56%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.53%EV -6.93%E -2.89%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -8.77%E -2.70%K -3.90%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-18 23:00
Betway🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -7.18%E -2.56%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -6.93%E -2.89%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -10.17%E -3.18%K -4.62%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-18 19:19
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -8.83%E -3.21%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -6.93%E -2.89%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -4.56%E -1.34%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-18 23:00
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -8.83%E -3.21%K -5.05%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -10.81%E -4.70%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -7.37%E -2.23%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-19 00:44
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -10.49%E -3.89%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.04%EV -8.87%E -3.77%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -4.56%E -1.34%K -1.90%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-18 22:59
picklebet_au🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.70%EV -10.49%E -3.89%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.72%EV -8.87%E -3.77%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.57%EV -7.37%E -2.23%K -3.20%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-18 22:59
Unibet (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.53%EV -10.49%E -3.89%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.85%EV -16.63%E -7.73%K -14.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -7.37%E -2.23%K -3.20%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-18 22:59
Betclic (FR)🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 33.30%EV -11.15%E -4.16%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.66%EV -12.75%E -5.67%K -10.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -7.37%E -2.23%K -3.20%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-18 22:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.53%EV -12.15%E -4.58%K -7.36%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.94%EV -8.87%E -3.77%K -6.57%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.53%EV -3.16%E -0.915%K -1.29%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-18 22:58
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.27%EV -17.12%E -6.85%K -11.41%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.95%EV -14.69%E -6.68%K -12.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.78%EV -10.17%E -3.18%K -4.62%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-18 22:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.03I 33.00%NM 31.75%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.48%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.78%4.0%2026-10-18 23:00
Smarkets◎2.54I 39.37%NM 33.86%2.24I 44.64%NM 38.40%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.74%16.3%2026-10-18 22:59