The School of Odds
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Sassuolo v Fiorentina

2026-11-02 17:30 UTC — Serie A - Italy

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sassuolo (Local)

Prediction 36.75%2.72fair odd
EV -1.15%
Edge -0.426%
Kelly -0.679%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.43%36.77%36.65%37.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.522.502.6942.55%39.68%40.00%37.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fiorentina (Visit)

Prediction 36.42%2.75fair odd
EV -1.67%
Edge -0.619%
Kelly -0.984%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.69%36.47%36.46%38.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.512.502.7043.48%39.79%40.00%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.83%3.73fair odd
EV +0.627%
Edge +0.167%
Kelly +0.228%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.37%26.75%26.88%27.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.473.503.7530.77%28.78%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Sassuolo (Local): 36.75%; Fiorentina (Visit): 36.42%; Draw: 26.83%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.73. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.75, producing a positive expected value of +0.627%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.45%E -1.71%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV +0.627%E +0.167%K +0.228%G +0.001%5.1%2026-10-25 22:15
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -6.29%E -2.47%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -0.714%E -0.193%K -0.265%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-25 22:20
1xBet🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 36.59%EV -1.15%E -0.426%K -0.679%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.45%EV -1.67%E -0.619%K -0.984%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.96%EV -2.06%E -0.563%K -0.776%G +0.000%1.6%2026-10-25 20:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 36.61%EV -4.09%E -1.57%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.47%EV -4.59%E -1.75%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.92%EV -4.74%E -1.34%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-25 20:40
Pinnacle🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.90%EV -5.19%E -2.01%K -3.28%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 36.06%EV -3.86%E -1.46%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.04%EV -5.54%E -1.58%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-25 21:41
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -4.45%E -1.71%K -2.78%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -6.08%E -1.74%K -2.43%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-25 20:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.91%EV -6.29%E -2.47%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.89%EV -6.08%E -1.74%K -2.43%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-26 01:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -6.29%E -2.47%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -6.08%E -1.74%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-25 20:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -5.31%E -2.04%K -3.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -6.08%E -1.74%K -2.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-25 20:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -10.78%E -4.40%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -6.08%E -1.74%K -2.43%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 20:40
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -11.80%E -4.92%K -8.43%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -6.08%E -1.74%K -2.43%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-25 20:39
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -7.42%E -2.15%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-25 20:40
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -8.76%E -2.58%K -3.65%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 20:40
picklebet_au🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -8.76%E -2.58%K -3.65%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 20:40
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -8.76%E -2.58%K -3.65%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 20:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -8.76%E -2.58%K -3.65%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 20:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -8.96%E -3.58%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.88%EV -8.76%E -2.58%K -3.65%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 20:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -16.24%E -7.06%K -12.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -8.76%E -2.58%K -3.65%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-25 20:40
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -9.97%E -4.07%K -6.87%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.69%EV -7.13%E -2.80%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -10.11%E -3.02%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-25 20:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -8.13%E -3.25%K -5.42%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.66%EV -13.69%E -5.78%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.64%EV -10.11%E -3.02%K -4.30%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-25 20:39
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 36.43%EV -13.64%E -5.80%K -10.10%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.22%EV -16.24%E -7.06%K -12.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.34%EV -12.79%E -3.94%K -5.68%G +0.000%16.8%2026-10-25 20:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.56I 39.06%NM 37.52%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.57%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.91%4.1%2026-10-25 20:40
Smarkets◎2.38I 42.02%NM 36.07%2.34I 42.74%NM 36.68%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.25%16.5%2026-10-25 20:40