The School of Odds

Parma v Cagliari

2026-08-23 16:30 UTC — Serie A - Italy

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Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Parma (Local)

Prediction 36.48%2.74fair odd
EV -0.058%
Edge -0.021%
Kelly -0.033%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.56%36.52%36.38%38.03%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.252.482.502.7444%40%40%36%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Cagliari (Visit)

Prediction 32.72%3.06fair odd
EV -1.85%
Edge -0.615%
Kelly -0.923%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.73%32.63%32.80%33.32%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.552.822.873.0039%36%35%33%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 30.81%3.25fair odd
EV -1.42%
Edge -0.444%
Kelly -0.645%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.49%30.85%30.82%32.57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.633.003.013.2038%33%33%31%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.74I 36.50%NM 35.93%EV -0.058%E -0.021%K -0.033%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.82%EV -1.85%E -0.615%K -0.923%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.25%EV -2.96%E -0.940%K -1.38%G +0.000%1.6%2026-06-25 12:58
Marathon Bet2.68I 37.31%NM 35.91%EV -2.25%E -0.838%K -1.34%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.85%EV -4.14%E -1.41%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.25%EV -5.12%E -1.66%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-24 13:30
Tipico (DE)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.56%EV -3.34%E -1.26%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.94%EV -3.48%E -1.18%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.50%EV -10.66%E -3.68%K -5.61%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-25 05:24
Pinnacle2.63I 38.02%NM 35.84%EV -4.07%E -1.55%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.84%EV -6.10%E -2.12%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 31.32%EV -7.27%E -2.42%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-19 15:00
Bet Victor2.55I 39.22%NM 36.59%EV -6.99%E -2.74%K -4.51%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -8.39%E -3.00%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -4.50%E -1.45%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-19 10:38
betfred_uk2.50I 40.00%NM 37.75%EV -8.81%E -3.52%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.77%EV -5.77%E -2.00%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -1.42%E -0.444%K -0.645%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-18 19:59
SportsBet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -8.81%E -3.52%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -5.12%E -1.76%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -4.50%E -1.45%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-18 15:39
FanDuel2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -8.81%E -3.52%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -5.12%E -1.76%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -4.50%E -1.45%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-18 15:41
Betr (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -8.81%E -3.52%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -5.12%E -1.76%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -4.50%E -1.45%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-18 20:10
Sky Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -8.81%E -3.52%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.46%EV -5.77%E -2.00%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -4.50%E -1.45%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-18 18:10
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 35.79%EV -8.81%E -3.52%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -11.66%E -4.32%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -11.28%E -3.92%K -6.00%G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-25 04:45
Winamax (DE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -10.64%E -4.34%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -8.39%E -3.00%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -4.50%E -1.45%K -2.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-25 04:25
Paddy Power2.45I 40.82%NM 37.49%EV -10.64%E -4.34%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.89%EV -5.77%E -2.00%K -3.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.62%EV -7.58%E -2.53%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.9%2026-06-18 15:40
Unibet (UK)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.15%EV -10.64%E -4.34%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.51%EV -8.39%E -3.00%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.34%EV -7.58%E -2.53%K -3.79%G +0.000%9.9%2026-06-25 04:26
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 35.70%EV -12.46%E -5.19%K -8.90%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.73%EV -11.66%E -4.32%K -6.86%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 32.57%EV -18.98%E -7.22%K -11.64%G +0.000%16.7%2026-06-18 20:20
Betclic (FR)2.32I 43.10%NM 37.82%EV -15.38%E -6.63%K -11.65%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 32.14%EV -10.68%E -3.91%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.05%EV -10.05%E -3.44%K -5.23%G +0.000%14.0%2026-06-25 04:27
NetBet (FR)2.32I 43.10%NM 36.75%EV -15.38%E -6.63%K -11.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.79%EV -14.93%E -5.74%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.45%EV -13.74%E -4.91%K -7.63%G +0.000%17.3%2026-06-22 20:09
Unibet (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 38.03%EV -16.11%E -7.00%K -12.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.81%EV -10.02%E -3.65%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.16%EV -10.66%E -3.68%K -5.61%G +0.000%14.3%2026-06-25 04:25
Winamax (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 37.43%EV -17.93%E -7.97%K -14.34%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.02%EV -16.57%E -6.50%K -10.69%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 29.55%EV -12.20%E -4.28%K -6.60%G +0.000%18.7%2026-06-25 04:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.38I 42.02%NM 37.93%2.84I 35.21%NM 31.78%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.29%10.8%2026-06-23 13:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.02I 98.04%NM 34.19%186.7%2026-06-25 11:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.02I 98.04%NM 34.19%186.7%2026-06-25 11:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.06I 94.34%NM 32.90%1.02I 98.04%NM 34.19%186.7%2026-06-25 11:10