The School of Odds

Parma v Cagliari

2026-08-23 16:30 — Serie A - Italy

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (8 in analysis)

Option 1: Parma (Local)

Odds
2.2544.44%Min
2.4840.26%Mean
2.5040.00%Median
2.7436.50%Max
Consensus probabilities
35.56%2.812Min
38.03%2.629Max
36.52%2.739Mean
36.38%2.749Median
36.48%2.742IQM
36.38%2.749Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.74 under the IQM model: 36.48%

EV -0.058%Edge -0.021%Kelly -0.033%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Cagliari (Visit)

Odds
2.5539.22%Min
2.8235.50%Mean
2.8734.84%Median
3.0033.33%Max
Consensus probabilities
31.73%3.152Min
33.32%3.001Max
32.63%3.065Mean
32.80%3.049Median
32.72%3.056IQM
32.65%3.063Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.00 under the IQM model: 32.72%

EV -1.85%Edge -0.615%Kelly -0.923%Growth +0.000%

Option 3: Draw

Odds
2.6338.02%Min
3.0033.38%Mean
3.0133.22%Median
3.2031.25%Max
Consensus probabilities
29.49%3.391Min
32.57%3.070Max
30.85%3.241Mean
30.82%3.245Median
30.81%3.246IQM
30.97%3.229Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 3.20 under the IQM model: 30.81%

EV -1.42%Edge -0.444%Kelly -0.645%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

BookmakerParma (Local) ▼Cagliari (Visit)DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.74I 36.50% NM 35.93%EV -0.058% E -0.021% K -0.033% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 32.82%EV -1.85% E -0.615% K -0.923% G +0.000%3.15I 31.75% NM 31.25%EV -2.96% E -0.940% K -1.38% G +0.000%1.6%2026-06-25 12:58
Marathon Bet2.68I 37.31% NM 35.91%EV -2.25% E -0.838% K -1.34% G +0.000%2.93I 34.13% NM 32.85%EV -4.14% E -1.41% K -2.14% G +0.000%3.08I 32.47% NM 31.25%EV -5.12% E -1.66% K -2.46% G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-24 13:30
Tipico (DE)2.65I 37.74% NM 35.56%EV -3.34% E -1.26% K -2.02% G +0.000%2.95I 33.90% NM 31.94%EV -3.48% E -1.18% K -1.79% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 32.50%EV -10.66% E -3.68% K -5.61% G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-25 05:24
Pinnacle2.63I 38.02% NM 35.84%EV -4.07% E -1.55% K -2.50% G +0.000%2.87I 34.84% NM 32.84%EV -6.10% E -2.12% K -3.26% G +0.000%3.01I 33.22% NM 31.32%EV -7.27% E -2.42% K -3.62% G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-19 15:00
Bet Victor2.55I 39.22% NM 36.59%EV -6.99% E -2.74% K -4.51% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 33.32%EV -8.39% E -3.00% K -4.66% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 30.09%EV -4.50% E -1.45% K -2.14% G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-19 10:38
betfred_uk2.50I 40.00% NM 37.75%EV -8.81% E -3.52% K -5.87% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 32.77%EV -5.77% E -2.00% K -3.07% G +0.000%3.20I 31.25% NM 29.49%EV -1.42% E -0.444% K -0.645% G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-18 19:59
SportsBet2.50I 40.00% NM 37.47%EV -8.81% E -3.52% K -5.87% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 32.31%EV -5.12% E -1.76% K -2.69% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 30.22%EV -4.50% E -1.45% K -2.14% G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-18 15:39
FanDuel2.50I 40.00% NM 37.47%EV -8.81% E -3.52% K -5.87% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 32.31%EV -5.12% E -1.76% K -2.69% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 30.22%EV -4.50% E -1.45% K -2.14% G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-18 15:41
Betr (AU)2.50I 40.00% NM 37.47%EV -8.81% E -3.52% K -5.87% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 32.31%EV -5.12% E -1.76% K -2.69% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 30.22%EV -4.50% E -1.45% K -2.14% G +0.000%6.7%2026-06-18 20:10
Sky Bet2.50I 40.00% NM 37.39%EV -8.81% E -3.52% K -5.87% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 32.46%EV -5.77% E -2.00% K -3.07% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 30.15%EV -4.50% E -1.45% K -2.14% G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-18 18:10
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00% NM 35.79%EV -8.81% E -3.52% K -5.87% G +0.000%2.70I 37.04% NM 33.14%EV -11.66% E -4.32% K -6.86% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 31.07%EV -11.28% E -3.92% K -6.00% G +0.000%11.8%2026-06-25 04:45
Winamax (DE)2.45I 40.82% NM 37.52%EV -10.64% E -4.34% K -7.33% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 32.83%EV -8.39% E -3.00% K -4.66% G +0.000%3.10I 32.26% NM 29.65%EV -4.50% E -1.45% K -2.14% G +0.000%8.8%2026-06-25 04:25
Paddy Power2.45I 40.82% NM 37.49%EV -10.64% E -4.34% K -7.33% G +0.000%2.88I 34.72% NM 31.89%EV -5.77% E -2.00% K -3.07% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 30.62%EV -7.58% E -2.53% K -3.79% G +0.000%8.9%2026-06-18 15:40
Unibet (UK)2.45I 40.82% NM 37.15%EV -10.64% E -4.34% K -7.33% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 32.51%EV -8.39% E -3.00% K -4.66% G +0.000%3.00I 33.33% NM 30.34%EV -7.58% E -2.53% K -3.79% G +0.000%9.9%2026-06-25 04:26
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.40I 41.67% NM 35.70%EV -12.46% E -5.19% K -8.90% G +0.000%2.70I 37.04% NM 31.73%EV -11.66% E -4.32% K -6.86% G +0.000%2.63I 38.02% NM 32.57%EV -18.98% E -7.22% K -11.64% G +0.000%16.7%2026-06-18 20:20
Betclic (FR)2.32I 43.10% NM 37.82%EV -15.38% E -6.63% K -11.65% G +0.000%2.73I 36.63% NM 32.14%EV -10.68% E -3.91% K -6.17% G +0.000%2.92I 34.25% NM 30.05%EV -10.05% E -3.44% K -5.23% G +0.000%14.0%2026-06-25 04:27
NetBet (FR)2.32I 43.10% NM 36.75%EV -15.38% E -6.63% K -11.65% G +0.000%2.60I 38.46% NM 32.79%EV -14.93% E -5.74% K -9.33% G +0.000%2.80I 35.71% NM 30.45%EV -13.74% E -4.91% K -7.63% G +0.000%17.3%2026-06-22 20:09
Unibet (FR)2.30I 43.48% NM 38.03%EV -16.11% E -7.00% K -12.39% G +0.000%2.75I 36.36% NM 31.81%EV -10.02% E -3.65% K -5.73% G +0.000%2.90I 34.48% NM 30.16%EV -10.66% E -3.68% K -5.61% G +0.000%14.3%2026-06-25 04:25
Winamax (FR)2.25I 44.44% NM 37.43%EV -17.93% E -7.97% K -14.34% G +0.000%2.55I 39.22% NM 33.02%EV -16.57% E -6.50% K -10.69% G +0.000%2.85I 35.09% NM 29.55%EV -12.20% E -4.28% K -6.60% G +0.000%18.7%2026-06-25 04:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerParma (Local)Cagliari (Visit)DrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.38I 42.02%2.84I 35.21%2.98I 33.56%10.8%2026-06-23 13:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.06I 94.34%1.06I 94.34%1.02I 98.04%186.7%2026-06-25 11:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.06I 94.34%1.06I 94.34%1.02I 98.04%186.7%2026-06-25 11:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.06I 94.34%1.06I 94.34%1.02I 98.04%186.7%2026-06-25 11:10