The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Lecce v Atalanta BC

2026-11-30 17:30 UTC — Serie A - Italy

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lecce (Local)

Prediction 25.11%3.98fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -0.592%
Kelly -0.797%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.89

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.53%25.22%25.11%25.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.713.753.8929.85%26.97%26.67%25.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atalanta BC (Visit)

Prediction 50.10%2.00fair odd
EV -1.81%
Edge -0.925%
Kelly -1.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.29%49.94%50.10%52.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.841.881.9661.73%54.27%53.19%51.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.79%4.03fair odd
EV +0.150%
Edge +0.037%
Kelly +0.049%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.04

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.20%24.84%24.79%25.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.763.754.0428.99%26.63%26.67%24.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Lecce (Local): 25.11%; Atalanta BC (Visit): 50.10%; Draw: 24.79%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.03. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.04, producing a positive expected value of +0.150%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.89I 25.71%NM 25.33%EV -2.30%E -0.592%K -0.797%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.28%EV -1.81%E -0.925%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.04I 24.75%NM 24.39%EV +0.150%E +0.037%K +0.049%G +0.000%1.5%2026-11-09 14:09
Marathon Bet🎯3.78I 26.46%NM 25.29%EV -5.07%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 50.32%EV -4.82%E -2.54%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.39%EV -2.83%E -0.721%K -0.967%G +0.000%4.6%2026-11-09 14:05
Pinnacle🎯3.66I 27.32%NM 25.99%EV -8.08%E -2.21%K -3.04%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 49.29%EV -3.32%E -1.72%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.71%EV -4.56%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-09 14:10
Betr (AU)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.87%EV -4.56%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.26%EV -5.82%E -3.10%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.87%EV -5.80%E -1.53%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-09 16:10
Winamax (DE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -7.08%E -1.91%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.74%EV -8.83%E -4.85%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -5.80%E -1.53%K -2.07%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-09 14:10
betfred_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -5.82%E -1.55%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.67%EV -4.82%E -2.54%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.17%EV -7.04%E -1.88%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-09 16:10
Unibet (UK)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -5.82%E -1.55%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.47%EV -7.82%E -4.25%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -7.04%E -1.88%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-09 14:10
LeoVegas🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -7.08%E -1.91%K -2.62%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.85%EV -9.83%E -5.46%K -12.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.41%EV -7.04%E -1.88%K -2.56%G +0.000%9.2%2026-11-09 14:10
Tipico (DE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -4.56%E -1.20%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.66%EV -4.82%E -2.54%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.50%EV -8.28%E -2.24%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-09 14:20
Unibet (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 23.53%EV -9.59%E -2.66%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 52.28%EV -18.84%E -11.63%K -30.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.20%EV -13.24%E -3.78%K -5.29%G +0.000%18.1%2026-11-09 14:10
Winamax (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 25.52%EV -15.87%E -4.74%K -6.75%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 49.70%EV -13.84%E -8.04%K -19.22%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.78%EV -14.48%E -4.20%K -5.91%G +0.000%17.0%2026-11-09 14:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎3.45I 28.99%NM 24.92%1.74I 57.47%NM 49.41%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.67%16.3%2026-11-09 14:10

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