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Lecce v AS Roma

2026-08-31 16:30 UTC — Serie A - Italy

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lecce (Local)

Prediction 17.82%5.61fair odd
EV +1.56%
Edge +0.274%
Kelly +0.332%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 5.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.55%17.83%17.77%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.125.005.7022.22%19.54%20.00%17.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AS Roma (Visit)

Prediction 55.20%1.81fair odd
EV -0.638%
Edge -0.354%
Kelly -0.797%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.41%55.07%55.25%56.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.701.701.8062.50%58.85%58.82%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.98%3.71fair odd
EV +2.26%
Edge +0.596%
Kelly +0.809%
Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 3.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.00%27.10%26.99%30.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.443.423.7932.26%29.05%29.24%26.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Lecce (Local): 17.82%; AS Roma (Visit): 55.20%; Draw: 26.98%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.71. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.79, producing a positive expected value of +2.26%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯5.57I 17.95%NM 17.69%EV -0.754%E -0.135%K -0.165%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.31%EV -3.40%E -1.94%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 26.00%EV +2.26%E +0.596%K +0.809%G +0.018%1.5%2026-08-23 16:10
Marathon Bet🎯5.45I 18.35%NM 17.67%EV -2.89%E -0.531%K -0.650%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.31%EV -5.61%E -3.28%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.02%EV -0.171%E -0.046%K -0.063%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-23 16:04
Pinnacle🎯5.38I 18.59%NM 17.60%EV -4.14%E -0.769%K -0.945%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.03%EV -6.71%E -3.97%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.37%EV -3.14%E -0.874%K -1.21%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-23 16:35
Codere (IT)🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.65%EV -3.78%E -0.701%K -0.860%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.11%EV -4.50%E -2.60%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.24%EV -5.57%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-23 16:19
SportsBet🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.93%EV -5.56%E -1.05%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.92%EV -4.50%E -2.60%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.15%EV -5.57%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 14:45
Betr (AU)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV -10.91%E -2.18%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.05%EV -3.40%E -1.94%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.03%EV -5.57%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-23 14:45
Tipico (DE)🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 16.55%EV +1.56%E +0.274%K +0.332%G +0.005%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.49%EV -7.81%E -4.68%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.96%EV -5.57%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-23 18:04
Fanatics🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.95%EV -6.46%E -1.23%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.61%E -3.28%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.57%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-23 14:44
betfred_uk🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -10.91%E -2.18%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.34%EV -4.50%E -2.60%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.86%EV -5.57%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-23 15:05
FanDuel🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 17.70%EV -5.56%E -1.05%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.50%EV -6.71%E -3.97%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -5.57%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-23 14:45
Winamax (DE)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.81%EV -12.69%E -2.59%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.86%EV -7.26%E -4.32%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -5.57%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-23 16:20
Betway🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 19.23%EV -15.36%E -3.23%K -4.10%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.68%EV -7.81%E -4.68%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -5.57%E -1.59%K -2.23%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-23 15:29
Bet Right🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.04%EV -12.69%E -2.59%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -4.50%E -2.60%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.04%EV -6.92%E -2.00%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 17:44
Betclic (FR)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.97%EV -9.13%E -1.79%K -2.23%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 55.22%EV -8.37%E -5.04%K -12.68%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 26.80%EV -7.73%E -2.26%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-23 16:32
William Hill🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.65%EV -10.91%E -2.18%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.91%EV -4.50%E -2.60%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.43%EV -8.27%E -2.43%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 16:10
Unibet (UK)🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 17.75%EV -6.46%E -1.23%K -1.52%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.83%EV -6.16%E -3.62%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -8.27%E -2.43%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 14:10
Sky Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.48%EV -10.91%E -2.18%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -6.16%E -3.62%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -8.27%E -2.43%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-23 14:45
Paddy Power🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.48%EV -10.91%E -2.18%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -6.16%E -3.62%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -8.27%E -2.43%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-23 14:45
888sport🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.48%EV -10.91%E -2.18%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -6.16%E -3.62%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -8.27%E -2.43%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-23 16:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.48%EV -10.91%E -2.18%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -6.16%E -3.62%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -8.27%E -2.43%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-23 16:09
888sport (SE)🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.48%EV -10.91%E -2.18%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -6.16%E -3.62%K -8.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -8.27%E -2.43%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-23 16:10
LeoVegas🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -10.91%E -2.18%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.81%E -4.68%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.27%E -2.43%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-23 14:50
BoyleSports🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -10.91%E -2.18%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 54.79%EV -7.81%E -4.68%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.27%E -2.43%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-23 14:15
PlayUp🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 18.21%EV -10.91%E -2.18%K -2.73%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.20%EV -7.26%E -4.32%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.59%EV -10.96%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-23 14:45
Unibet (FR)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 18.21%EV -12.69%E -2.59%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 54.75%EV -10.02%E -6.15%K -15.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -10.96%E -3.32%K -4.77%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-23 16:19
Winamax (FR)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 19.16%EV -19.82%E -4.40%K -5.66%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 53.89%EV -11.68%E -7.30%K -19.46%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.95%EV -13.66%E -4.27%K -6.21%G +0.000%16.0%2026-08-23 14:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 17.15%EV -2.00%E -0.364%K -0.445%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.41%EV -0.638%E -0.354%K -0.797%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.43%EV -16.36%E -5.28%K -7.79%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-23 16:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎5.56I 17.99%NM 17.66%1.79I 55.87%NM 54.84%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.50%1.9%2026-08-23 17:30
Smarkets◎5.90I 16.95%NM 16.40%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.94%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.65%3.3%2026-08-23 18:59
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.81%5.1%2026-08-23 17:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.81%5.1%2026-08-23 17:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎6.00I 16.67%NM 15.86%1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.81%5.1%2026-08-23 17:00
Arbitrage (2 combinations) +0.52%Tipico (DE) 5.70 (17.6%) / PointsBet (AU) 1.80 (55.8%) / 1xBet 3.79 (26.5%)Show all 2 combinations
Lecce (Local)AS Roma (Visit)DrawMargin
Tipico (DE)🎯 5.70 (17.6%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 1.80 (55.8%)1xBet🎯 3.79 (26.5%)+0.518%
1xBet🎯 5.57 (18.0%)PointsBet (AU)🎯 1.80 (55.6%)1xBet🎯 3.79 (26.4%)+0.106%