The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Lazio v Parma

2026-10-24 18:45 UTC — Serie A - Italy

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lazio (Local)

Prediction 60.69%1.65fair odd
EV -2.29%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -3.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.94%60.83%60.68%61.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.531.531.6168.97%65.36%65.36%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Parma (Visit)

Prediction 15.64%6.39fair odd
EV +2.16%
Edge +0.330%
Kelly +0.390%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 6.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.49%15.55%15.68%17.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.895.756.5320.00%16.99%17.39%15.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.66%4.23fair odd
EV -1.32%
Edge -0.316%
Kelly -0.416%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.92%23.62%23.64%24.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.913.904.1727.40%25.58%25.64%23.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Lazio (Local): 60.69%; Parma (Visit): 15.64%; Draw: 23.66%. For Parma (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.39. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 6.53, producing a positive expected value of +2.16%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 61.25%EV -2.29%E -1.42%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.53I 15.31%NM 15.10%EV +2.16%E +0.330%K +0.390%G +0.008%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.65%EV -1.32%E -0.316%K -0.416%G +0.000%1.4%2026-10-11 20:49
Tipico (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.96%EV -7.75%E -5.10%K -14.90%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.49%EV +1.69%E +0.260%K +0.307%G +0.005%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -5.34%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 20:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.32%EV -5.32%E -3.41%K -9.50%G +0.000%6.35I 15.75%NM 15.06%EV -0.659%E -0.104%K -0.123%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.62%EV -4.16%E -1.03%K -1.36%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-11 20:44
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.77%EV -5.93%E -3.83%K -10.78%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.07%EV -2.22%E -0.356%K -0.424%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -7.71%E -1.98%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 20:19
Pinnacle🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.02%EV -5.93%E -3.83%K -10.78%G +0.000%6.24I 16.03%NM 15.16%EV -2.38%E -0.381%K -0.454%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 23.82%EV -6.05%E -1.52%K -2.04%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-11 21:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.96%EV -5.32%E -3.41%K -9.50%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -6.13%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -2.97%E -0.725%K -0.959%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-12 00:19
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.72%E -3.00%K -8.27%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.82%EV -6.13%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -5.34%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-11 20:14
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.42%EV -7.14%E -4.67%K -13.48%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.66%EV -6.13%E -1.02%K -1.23%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.92%EV -2.97%E -0.725%K -0.959%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-11 21:05
William Hill🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.70%EV -5.93%E -3.83%K -10.78%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.95%EV -9.26%E -1.60%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-11 21:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.14%EV -6.54%E -4.24%K -12.10%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.11%EV -10.05%E -1.75%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.75%EV -7.71%E -1.98%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-11 23:39
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.93%EV -7.14%E -4.67%K -13.48%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -10.05%E -1.75%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-11 21:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.93%EV -7.14%E -4.67%K -13.48%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -10.05%E -1.75%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-11 21:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.93%EV -7.14%E -4.67%K -13.48%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -10.05%E -1.75%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-11 21:49
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.40%EV -8.96%E -5.98%K -17.93%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.76%EV -10.05%E -1.75%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.60%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-11 20:44
Unibet (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.13%EV -12.00%E -8.27%K -26.66%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.55%EV -10.83%E -1.90%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.32%EV -10.07%E -2.65%K -3.60%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-11 23:39
LeoVegas🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.20%EV -7.75%E -5.10%K -14.90%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.34%EV -12.39%E -2.21%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.46%EV -7.71%E -1.98%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-11 23:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.28%EV -10.18%E -6.88%K -21.20%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.93%EV -12.39%E -2.21%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.79%EV -11.26%E -3.00%K -4.09%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-11 23:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.37%EV -7.75%E -5.10%K -14.90%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -13.96%E -2.54%K -3.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -5.34%E -1.34%K -1.78%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-11 23:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 58.94%EV -10.78%E -7.34%K -22.95%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.33%EV -21.78%E -4.36%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.74%EV -13.62%E -3.73%K -5.14%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-11 23:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.61I 62.11%NM 60.84%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.67%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.49%2.1%2026-10-11 20:15
Smarkets◎1.47I 68.03%NM 58.54%5.10I 19.61%NM 16.87%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.59%16.2%2026-10-11 23:40