The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Lazio v Genoa

2026-08-30 18:45 UTC — Serie A - Italy

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lazio (Local)

Prediction 52.48%1.91fair odd
EV +4.44%
Edge +2.23%
Kelly +4.49%
Growth +0.199%

assuming max odds 1.99

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.42%52.48%52.48%52.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.751.821.811.9957.14%54.98%55.25%50.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Genoa (Visit)

Prediction 20.19%4.95fair odd
EV -5.09%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.19%20.19%20.19%21.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.544.544.7023.26%22.04%22.03%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.32%3.66fair odd
EV -4.37%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -1.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.04%27.32%27.32%28.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.393.403.5030.30%29.46%29.41%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Lazio (Local): 52.48%; Genoa (Visit): 20.19%; Draw: 27.32%. For Lazio (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.91. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 1.99, producing a positive expected value of +4.44%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 49.42%EV +4.44%E +2.23%K +4.49%G +0.199%4.54I 22.03%NM 21.66%EV -8.32%E -1.83%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.92%EV -7.10%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000%1.7%2026-08-21 10:19
SportsBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.30%EV -3.96%E -2.16%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.36%EV -5.09%E -1.08%K -1.37%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.34%EV -4.37%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-21 10:49
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.65%EV -3.96%E -2.16%K -4.77%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -7.10%E -1.54%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV -7.10%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-21 10:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.79%EV -4.48%E -2.46%K -5.46%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.49%EV -7.10%E -1.54%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -7.10%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-21 10:49
Bet Right🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.48%EV -5.01%E -2.77%K -6.18%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.71%EV -9.12%E -2.03%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -8.47%E -2.53%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-21 10:49
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -5.53%E -3.07%K -6.91%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -9.12%E -2.03%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -7.10%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-21 10:50
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.48%EV -7.10%E -4.01%K -9.23%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -7.10%E -1.54%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.32%EV -7.10%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-21 10:50
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.33%EV -7.10%E -4.01%K -9.23%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.13%EV -13.16%E -3.06%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.53%EV -9.84%E -2.98%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-21 11:19
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.53%EV -8.15%E -4.66%K -10.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -9.12%E -2.03%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -7.10%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-21 10:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.79I 55.87%NM 50.42%4.17I 23.98%NM 21.64%3.23I 30.96%NM 27.94%10.8%2026-08-21 14:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 32.72%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.64%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.64%180.4%2026-08-21 10:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 32.72%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.64%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.64%180.4%2026-08-21 10:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.33%197.0%2026-08-21 10:45

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