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Inter Milan v Monza
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Inter Milan (Local)
Prediction 77.72%1.29fair odd
EV -3.63%
Edge -2.93%
Kelly -15.12%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.24
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.08%77.94%77.67%80.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.091.181.181.2491.74%84.90%84.75%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Monza (Visit)
Prediction 7.25%13.79fair odd
EV +16.01%
Edge +1.00%
Kelly +1.07%
Growth +0.171%
assuming max odds 16.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.88%7.34%7.19%9.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0012.8313.0016.0011.11%7.79%7.69%6.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 15.03%6.65fair odd
EV +12.73%
Edge +1.70%
Kelly +1.96%
Growth +0.249%
assuming max odds 7.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.61%14.72%15.14%17.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.006.156.007.5020.00%16.26%16.67%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Inter Milan (Local): 77.72%; Monza (Visit): 7.25%; Draw: 15.03%. For Monza (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.79. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 16.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.01%.
Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.12%EV -8.29%E -7.03%K -46.07%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.27%EV -5.74%E -0.442%K -0.479%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.61%EV +12.73%E +1.70%K +1.96%G +0.249% | 5.8% | 2026-06-25 04:54 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.22%EV -3.63%E -2.93%K -15.12%G +0.000% | 14.60I 6.85%NM 6.73%EV +5.86%E +0.401%K +0.431%G +0.025% | 6.99I 14.31%NM 14.05%EV +5.07%E +0.725%K +0.846%G +0.043% | 1.8% | 2026-06-25 13:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.43%EV -9.07%E -7.75%K -53.35%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.98%EV -16.62%E -1.45%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.59%EV +1.46%E +0.216%K +0.254%G +0.004% | 9.0% | 2026-06-25 04:24 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.00%EV -6.74%E -5.61%K -33.69%G +0.000% | 11.90I 8.40%NM 7.87%EV -13.72%E -1.15%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.62I 15.11%NM 14.14%EV -0.496%E -0.075%K -0.088%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-19 17:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 78.28%EV -4.41%E -3.58%K -19.16%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 7.13%EV -2.12%E -0.157%K -0.170%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.59%EV -0.797%E -0.121%K -0.142%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-25 18:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.66%EV -8.29%E -7.03%K -46.07%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.88%EV +16.01%E +1.00%K +1.07%G +0.171% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -2.30%E -0.354%K -0.418%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-19 13:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.86%EV -6.74%E -5.61%K -33.69%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.19%EV -5.74%E -0.442%K -0.479%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.95%EV -6.06%E -0.969%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-19 13:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.84%EV -5.18%E -4.25%K -23.56%G +0.000% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.33%EV +8.76%E +0.584%K +0.625%G +0.055% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.83%EV -9.82%E -1.64%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-19 14:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -6.74%E -5.61%K -33.69%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.67%EV +1.51%E +0.108%K +0.116%G +0.002% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -9.82%E -1.64%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-19 14:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.38%EV -6.74%E -5.61%K -33.69%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -5.74%E -0.442%K -0.479%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV -9.82%E -1.64%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-25 18:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.67%EV -8.29%E -7.03%K -46.07%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.05%EV -5.74%E -0.442%K -0.479%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -9.82%E -1.64%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-06-25 19:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.21%EV -9.07%E -7.75%K -53.35%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.54%EV +1.51%E +0.108%K +0.116%G +0.002% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -9.82%E -1.64%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-06-19 13:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.21%EV -9.07%E -7.75%K -53.35%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.54%EV +1.51%E +0.108%K +0.116%G +0.002% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -9.82%E -1.64%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-06-25 04:26 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.69%EV -8.29%E -7.03%K -46.07%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.23%EV -20.25%E -1.84%K -2.02%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.08%EV -9.82%E -1.64%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-06-25 04:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 77.96%EV -15.29%E -14.02%K -169.85%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.39%EV -16.62%E -1.45%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 14.65%EV -12.82%E -2.21%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 17.7% | 2026-06-23 07:29 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 77.20%EV -11.40%E -10.00%K -81.43%G +0.000% | 11.75I 8.51%NM 7.49%EV -14.81%E -1.26%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.31%EV -13.57%E -2.36%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-06-25 04:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 77.22%EV -11.40%E -10.00%K -81.43%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.34%EV -12.99%E -1.08%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 15.44%EV -14.32%E -2.51%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-06-25 04:24 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 75.08%EV -12.95%E -11.57%K -107.96%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.34%EV -34.75%E -3.86%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 15.57%EV -18.83%E -3.49%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 18.9% | 2026-06-25 04:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 75.10%EV -9.07%E -7.75%K -53.35%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.32%EV -12.99%E -1.08%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.57%EV -24.85%E -4.97%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-06-25 19:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.19I 84.03%NM 76.01% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.24% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.75% | 10.6% | 2026-06-24 15:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 30.12% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 34.10% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 35.78% | 176.7% | 2026-06-25 11:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 30.12% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 34.10% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 35.78% | 176.7% | 2026-06-25 11:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.20I 83.33%NM 30.12% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 34.10% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 35.78% | 176.7% | 2026-06-25 11:10 |