The School of Odds
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Frosinone v Lecce

2026-10-29 17:30 UTC — Serie A - Italy

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Frosinone (Local)

Prediction 49.09%2.04fair odd
EV -1.32%
Edge -0.659%
Kelly -1.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.98%49.12%49.11%50.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.771.901.912.0156.50%52.77%52.36%49.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lecce (Visit)

Prediction 25.13%3.98fair odd
EV -1.22%
Edge -0.311%
Kelly -0.417%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.20%25.08%25.16%26.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.633.603.9331.25%27.54%27.78%25.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.77%3.88fair odd
EV -0.773%
Edge -0.201%
Kelly -0.271%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.50%25.81%25.73%26.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.613.603.8528.99%27.71%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Frosinone (Local): 49.09%; Lecce (Visit): 25.13%; Draw: 25.77%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.88. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.85, with an expected value of -0.773%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 49.02%EV -1.32%E -0.659%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 25.39%EV -2.48%E -0.639%K -0.860%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.59%EV -0.773%E -0.201%K -0.271%G +0.000%1.5%2026-10-18 22:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.02%EV -4.27%E -2.19%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.42%EV -5.49%E -1.46%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.56%EV -3.61%E -0.965%K -1.32%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-18 22:09
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -4.27%E -2.19%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.31%EV -5.75%E -1.53%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.01%EV -5.93%E -1.62%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-19 00:45
Fanatics🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.92%EV -5.25%E -2.72%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.85%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -7.22%E -2.00%K -2.78%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-18 22:10
Pinnacle🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.53%EV -5.74%E -2.99%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.20%EV -1.22%E -0.311%K -0.417%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.27%EV -6.70%E -1.85%K -2.56%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-19 00:05
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.22%E -2.00%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-18 22:10
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -9.79%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-18 22:40
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -9.79%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-18 22:44
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -9.79%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-18 22:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -6.23%E -3.26%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.52%E -2.64%K -3.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -9.79%E -2.80%K -3.92%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-18 22:44
Tipico (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.66%EV -6.72%E -3.54%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.50%EV -4.64%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-18 21:59
picklebet_au🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -6.72%E -3.54%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -7.22%E -2.00%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-18 22:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.87%EV -7.71%E -4.10%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -13.29%E -3.85%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.50%EV -3.35%E -0.893%K -1.22%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-18 22:10
LeoVegas🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.73%EV -7.71%E -4.10%K -8.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.17%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -5.93%E -1.62%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-18 22:44
Betway🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -9.18%E -4.96%K -10.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -4.49%E -1.18%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -7.22%E -2.00%K -2.78%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-19 00:44
Betclic (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.12%EV -10.65%E -5.85%K -12.99%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.69%EV -12.53%E -3.60%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.18%EV -8.51%E -2.40%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-18 22:08
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 47.98%EV -11.63%E -6.46%K -14.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.99%EV -19.57%E -6.12%K -8.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.03%EV -11.08%E -3.21%K -4.52%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-18 22:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.07%EV -13.11%E -7.40%K -17.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.32%EV -12.03%E -3.44%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.62%EV -7.22%E -2.00%K -2.78%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-18 22:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 49.51%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.26%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.23%3.0%2026-10-18 23:45
Smarkets◎1.81I 55.25%NM 47.50%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.45%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.05%16.3%2026-10-18 22:10