The School of Odds
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Cagliari v Bologna

2026-10-24 13:00 UTC — Serie A - Italy

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Cagliari (Local)

Prediction 29.40%3.40fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -0.449%
Kelly -0.640%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.60%29.58%29.47%31.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.083.103.3534.48%32.42%32.26%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bologna (Visit)

Prediction 38.87%2.57fair odd
EV -2.05%
Edge -0.813%
Kelly -1.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.57%38.73%38.79%40.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.412.442.5245.45%41.54%40.98%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.73%3.15fair odd
EV -0.688%
Edge -0.220%
Kelly -0.323%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.55%31.69%31.73%32.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.963.003.1336.36%33.78%33.33%31.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Cagliari (Local): 29.40%; Bologna (Visit): 38.87%; Draw: 31.73%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.15. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.13, with an expected value of -0.688%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 29.41%EV -1.50%E -0.449%K -0.640%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.10%EV -2.05%E -0.813%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 31.48%EV -0.688%E -0.220%K -0.323%G +0.000%1.5%2026-10-11 20:49
Pinnacle🎯3.28I 30.49%NM 29.08%EV -3.56%E -1.09%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.47%EV -3.60%E -1.45%K -2.44%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.45%EV -6.72%E -2.28%K -3.46%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-11 21:15
Marathon Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.40%EV -4.44%E -1.37%K -1.98%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.16%EV -5.16%E -2.11%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.43%EV -3.54%E -1.17%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-11 20:44
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.49%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.52%EV -4.77%E -1.95%K -3.29%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.99%EV -6.40%E -2.17%K -3.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-11 20:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -6.71%E -2.80%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -4.81%E -1.60%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-12 00:19
Fanatics🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.41%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -6.71%E -2.80%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.37%EV -4.81%E -1.60%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 21:05
Unibet (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.03%EV -5.91%E -1.85%K -2.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.71%EV -6.71%E -2.80%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.26%EV -8.62%E -2.99%K -4.59%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-11 21:24
Betway🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.69%EV -8.85%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.35%EV -6.71%E -2.80%K -4.80%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.96%EV -8.62%E -2.99%K -4.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-11 20:14
LeoVegas🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -8.85%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -7.49%E -3.15%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -7.99%E -2.75%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-11 21:24
Unibet (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -8.85%E -2.86%K -4.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.30%EV -14.49%E -6.59%K -12.07%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.11%EV -9.57%E -3.36%K -5.17%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-11 21:24
Betclic (FR)🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 28.99%EV -9.44%E -3.07%K -4.54%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 39.34%EV -11.77%E -5.18%K -9.26%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 31.67%EV -10.52%E -3.73%K -5.78%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-11 21:24
Winamax (DE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.01%EV -10.33%E -3.39%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.95%EV -8.66%E -3.68%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.03%EV -6.40%E -2.17%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-11 21:24
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.57%EV -11.80%E -3.93%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -2.83%E -1.13%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -1.64%E -0.529%K -0.781%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-11 21:09
Betr (AU)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.41%EV -11.80%E -3.93%K -5.90%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.69%EV -2.83%E -1.13%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.90%EV -3.23%E -1.06%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-11 21:39
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -14.74%E -5.08%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -4.77%E -1.95%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -4.81%E -1.60%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-11 21:04
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -14.74%E -5.08%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -4.77%E -1.95%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -4.81%E -1.60%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-11 21:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -14.74%E -5.08%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -4.77%E -1.95%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -4.81%E -1.60%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-11 21:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.74%EV -14.74%E -5.08%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.57%EV -4.77%E -1.95%K -3.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -4.81%E -1.60%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-11 21:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 29.91%EV -14.74%E -5.08%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.55%EV -12.54%E -5.58%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.54%EV -12.75%E -4.63%K -7.28%G +0.000%15.3%2026-10-11 20:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.12I 32.05%NM 29.65%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.88%2.94I 34.01%NM 31.47%8.1%2026-10-11 20:15
Smarkets◎2.92I 34.25%NM 29.50%2.26I 44.25%NM 38.12%2.66I 37.59%NM 32.38%16.1%2026-10-11 21:24