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Atalanta BC v Sassuolo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Atalanta BC (Local)
Prediction 61.25%1.63fair odd
EV -2.61%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -4.42%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.59
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.15%61.26%61.38%62.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.501.511.5972.46%66.86%66.23%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sassuolo (Visit)
Prediction 16.65%6.00fair odd
EV +2.25%
Edge +0.367%
Kelly +0.438%
Growth +0.010%
assuming max odds 6.14
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.71%16.61%16.67%18.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.705.485.606.1421.28%18.24%17.86%16.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.09%4.53fair odd
EV -0.580%
Edge -0.129%
Kelly -0.166%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.43%22.13%21.95%23.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.134.254.5027.03%24.20%23.53%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atalanta BC (Local): 61.25%; Sassuolo (Visit): 16.65%; Draw: 22.09%. For Sassuolo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.00. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.14, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.25%.
Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.02%EV -2.61%E -1.64%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 6.14I 16.29%NM 16.06%EV +2.25%E +0.367%K +0.438%G +0.010% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.91%EV -0.580%E -0.129%K -0.166%G +0.000% | 1.4% | 2026-06-24 22:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.86%EV -8.12%E -5.41%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -0.080%E -0.013%K -0.016%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -2.79%E -0.634%K -0.820%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-20 06:09 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.00%EV -6.28%E -4.11%K -11.85%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.23%EV -4.24%E -0.738%K -0.893%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.76%EV -9.42%E -2.30%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-27 06:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.65%EV -6.90%E -4.54%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 5.64I 17.73%NM 16.61%EV -6.08%E -1.08%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 4.31I 23.20%NM 21.74%EV -4.78%E -1.11%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-06-24 22:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.54%EV -7.51%E -4.97%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -6.74%E -1.20%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -6.10%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-22 00:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.54%EV -7.51%E -4.97%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -6.74%E -1.20%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -6.10%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-22 00:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.54%EV -7.51%E -4.97%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -6.74%E -1.20%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -6.10%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-22 00:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.54%EV -7.51%E -4.97%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -6.74%E -1.20%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -6.10%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-22 00:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.54%EV -7.51%E -4.97%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -6.74%E -1.20%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -6.10%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-22 00:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.54%EV -7.51%E -4.97%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -6.74%E -1.20%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -6.10%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-22 00:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.54%EV -7.51%E -4.97%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -6.74%E -1.20%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -6.10%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-22 00:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.54%EV -7.51%E -4.97%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -6.74%E -1.20%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -6.10%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-22 00:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.54%EV -7.51%E -4.97%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -6.74%E -1.20%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -6.10%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-22 00:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.54%EV -7.51%E -4.97%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -6.74%E -1.20%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -6.10%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-22 00:09 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.54%EV -7.51%E -4.97%K -14.72%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.59%EV -6.74%E -1.20%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.87%EV -6.10%E -1.44%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-22 00:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.55%EV -6.90%E -4.54%K -13.26%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.44%EV -6.74%E -1.20%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.01%EV -11.63%E -2.91%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-27 06:54 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -8.12%E -5.41%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -8.41%E -1.53%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -11.63%E -2.91%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-06-20 10:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 61.32%EV -9.96%E -6.77%K -21.19%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.69%EV -10.07%E -1.87%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.99%EV -9.42%E -2.30%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-06-20 06:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.97%EV -8.12%E -5.41%K -16.24%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.26%EV -11.74%E -2.21%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.77%EV -7.21%E -1.72%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-06-24 21:59 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 61.59%EV -15.47%E -11.21%K -40.71%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.04%EV -11.74%E -2.21%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.37%EV -16.04%E -4.22%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 17.6% | 2026-06-24 21:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 60.16%EV -10.57%E -7.24%K -22.98%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 16.73%EV -12.57%E -2.39%K -2.96%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.11%EV -16.04%E -4.22%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-06-24 21:59 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 60.06%EV -10.57%E -7.24%K -22.98%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 16.86%EV -13.40%E -2.58%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.08%EV -16.04%E -4.22%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-06-24 22:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 60.07%EV -8.73%E -5.86%K -17.82%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.55%EV -15.07%E -2.95%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -11.63%E -2.91%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-07-22 00:10 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 60.07%EV -8.73%E -5.86%K -17.82%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.55%EV -15.07%E -2.95%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.38%EV -11.63%E -2.91%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-07-22 00:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -11.80%E -8.19%K -26.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -16.73%E -3.35%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -11.63%E -2.91%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 14.4% | 2026-06-23 19:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 59.15%EV -12.41%E -8.68%K -28.86%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.00%EV -21.73%E -4.62%K -5.87%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 22.86%EV -18.25%E -4.93%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 18.2% | 2026-06-24 21:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.