Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

AS Roma v Pisa

Kickoff: 2026-04-12 13:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

70%

10%

20%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AS Roma (Local)

Prediction 70.50%1.42fair odd

EV -4.12%

Edge -3.03%

Kelly -11.46%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

68.39%70.50%69.70%72.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.281.321.331.3678.13%75.47%75.47%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pisa (Visit)

Prediction 9.97%10.03fair odd

EV +14.71%

Edge +1.28%

Kelly +1.40%

Growth +0.206%

assuming max odds 11.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

8.26%9.97%10.78%10.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

8.009.318.5011.5012.50%10.74%11.76%8.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.53%5.12fair odd

EV -3.33%

Edge -0.673%

Kelly -0.844%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

19.20%19.53%19.52%20.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.304.644.604.9523.26%21.53%21.74%20.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AS Roma (Local): 70.50%; Pisa (Visit): 9.97%; Draw: 19.53%. For Pisa (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.03. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.71%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Draw	Margin	Updated
NordicBet🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 72.54%EV -7.65%E -5.84%K -24.67%G +0.000%	11.50I 8.70%NM 8.26%EV +14.71%E +1.28%K +1.40%G +0.206%	4.95I 20.20%NM 19.20%EV -3.33%E -0.673%K -0.844%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-03-22 17:39
Betsson🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 72.54%EV -7.65%E -5.84%K -24.67%G +0.000%	11.50I 8.70%NM 8.26%EV +14.71%E +1.28%K +1.40%G +0.206%	4.95I 20.20%NM 19.20%EV -3.33%E -0.673%K -0.844%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-03-22 17:40
SportsBet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.50%EV -4.12%E -3.03%K -11.46%G +0.000%	9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -5.24%E -0.552%K -0.617%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -10.17%E -2.21%K -2.82%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-23 00:54
Sky Bet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.39%EV -4.12%E -3.03%K -11.46%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 10.94%EV -15.22%E -1.79%K -2.03%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.67%EV -12.12%E -2.69%K -3.46%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-03-23 00:54
Betway🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.62%EV -6.24%E -4.69%K -18.91%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV -15.22%E -1.79%K -2.03%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -7.24%E -1.52%K -1.93%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-03-22 20:20
Paddy Power🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 68.87%EV -6.24%E -4.69%K -18.91%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -15.22%E -1.79%K -2.03%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.35%EV -12.12%E -2.69%K -3.46%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-03-23 00:54
FanDuel🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 69.34%EV -6.94%E -5.26%K -21.70%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 10.77%EV -15.22%E -1.79%K -2.03%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -10.17%E -2.21%K -2.82%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-03-23 00:54
PMU (FR)🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 68.60%EV -9.76%E -7.63%K -34.87%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 10.98%EV -20.20%E -2.53%K -2.89%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 20.42%EV -16.03%E -3.73%K -4.86%G +0.000%	13.9%	2026-03-23 00:54

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.