Language:English
AS Roma v Fiorentina
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
AS Roma (Local)
Prediction 62.16%1.61fair odd
EV -4.90%
Edge -3.20%
Kelly -9.24%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.33%62.04%62.19%63.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.481.501.5372.99%67.39%66.67%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Fiorentina (Visit)
Prediction 15.42%6.49fair odd
EV +1.74%
Edge +0.264%
Kelly +0.311%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 6.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.53%15.42%15.44%16.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.405.916.006.6018.52%16.91%16.67%15.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.43%4.46fair odd
EV -2.45%
Edge -0.563%
Kelly -0.731%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.04%22.54%22.37%25.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.404.004.004.3529.41%25.00%25.00%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AS Roma (Local): 62.16%; Fiorentina (Visit): 15.42%; Draw: 22.43%. For Fiorentina (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.49. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.74%.
Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.30%EV -5.52%E -3.63%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.58%EV +1.74%E +0.264%K +0.311%G +0.005% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.12%EV -2.45%E -0.563%K -0.731%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-24 14:18 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.98%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV +0.202%E +0.031%K +0.037%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.49%EV -5.81%E -1.38%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-18 15:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.13%EV -8.01%E -5.41%K -16.68%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.83%EV -2.88%E -0.457%K -0.544%G +0.000% | 4.24I 23.58%NM 22.04%EV -4.92%E -1.16%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-19 15:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.61%EV -5.52%E -3.63%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.98%EV -3.65%E -0.584%K -0.696%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.41%EV -10.30%E -2.57%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-18 20:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.76%EV -4.90%E -3.20%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.75%EV -7.51%E -1.25%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.50%EV -5.81%E -1.38%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-18 19:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.89%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.47%EV -7.51%E -1.25%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -8.05%E -1.96%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-19 13:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 62.54%EV -8.01%E -5.41%K -16.68%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.43%EV -7.51%E -1.25%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.04%EV -5.81%E -1.38%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-18 15:41 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -7.51%E -1.25%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.30%E -2.57%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-18 15:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -7.51%E -1.25%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -10.30%E -2.57%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-18 18:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -11.36%E -1.98%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -10.30%E -2.57%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-06-25 04:28 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.03%EV -6.76%E -4.51%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -15.21%E -2.77%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.33%EV -8.05%E -1.96%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-06-25 04:27 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 59.33%EV -10.49%E -7.29%K -23.84%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.53%EV -15.21%E -2.77%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 25.13%EV -23.75%E -6.99%K -9.90%G +0.000% | 17.0% | 2026-06-18 20:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 61.94%EV -14.84%E -10.83%K -40.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.43%EV -15.21%E -2.77%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 22.63%EV -15.90%E -4.24%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 17.8% | 2026-06-22 20:09 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 60.25%EV -9.25%E -6.33%K -20.11%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.29%EV -16.76%E -3.10%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.46%EV -15.90%E -4.24%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-06-25 04:27 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 60.06%EV -9.25%E -6.33%K -20.11%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.24%EV -16.76%E -3.10%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.70%EV -17.02%E -4.60%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-06-25 04:28 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.95% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 12.72% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.34% | 9.2% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 32.18% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 33.09% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 34.73% | 185.1% | 2026-06-25 11:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 32.18% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 33.09% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 34.73% | 185.1% | 2026-06-25 11:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 32.79% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 34.42% | 187.7% | 2026-06-25 11:10 |