The School of OddsAS Roma v Fiorentina
Head to Head
Option 1: AS Roma (Local)
Odds
1.3772.99%Min
1.4867.39%Mean
1.5066.67%Median
1.5365.36%Max
Consensus probabilities
59.33%1.685Min
63.30%1.580Max
62.04%1.612Mean
62.19%1.608Median
62.16%1.609IQM
62.34%1.604Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 1.53 under the IQM model: 62.16%
EV -4.90%Edge -3.20%Kelly -9.24%Growth +0.000%
Option 2: Fiorentina (Visit)
Odds
5.4018.52%Min
5.9116.91%Mean
6.0016.67%Median
6.6015.15%Max
Consensus probabilities
14.53%6.881Min
16.64%6.008Max
15.42%6.483Mean
15.44%6.476Median
15.42%6.487IQM
15.25%6.559Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 6.60 under the IQM model: 15.42%
EV +1.74%Edge +0.264%Kelly +0.311%Growth +0.005%
Option 3: Draw
Odds
3.4029.41%Min
4.0025.00%Mean
4.0025.00%Median
4.3522.99%Max
Consensus probabilities
22.04%4.538Min
25.13%3.979Max
22.54%4.437Mean
22.37%4.470Median
22.43%4.459IQM
22.41%4.462Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 4.35 under the IQM model: 22.43%
EV -2.45%Edge -0.563%Kelly -0.731%Growth +0.000%
Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | AS Roma (Local) | Fiorentina (Visit) ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet | 1.52I 65.79% NM 63.30%EV -5.52% E -3.63% K -10.61% G +0.000% | 6.60I 15.15% NM 14.58%EV +1.74% E +0.264% K +0.311% G +0.005% | 4.35I 22.99% NM 22.12%EV -2.45% E -0.563% K -0.731% G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-06-24 14:18 |
| SportsBet | 1.50I 66.67% NM 62.98%EV -6.76% E -4.51% K -13.52% G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38% NM 14.53%EV +0.202% E +0.031% K +0.037% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.49%EV -5.81% E -1.38% K -1.82% G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-18 15:39 |
| Pinnacle | 1.48I 67.57% NM 63.13%EV -8.01% E -5.41% K -16.68% G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87% NM 14.83%EV -2.88% E -0.457% K -0.544% G +0.000% | 4.24I 23.58% NM 22.04%EV -4.92% E -1.16% K -1.52% G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-06-19 15:00 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.52I 65.79% NM 61.61%EV -5.52% E -3.63% K -10.61% G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00% NM 14.98%EV -3.65% E -0.584% K -0.696% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 23.41%EV -10.30% E -2.57% K -3.43% G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-06-18 20:10 |
| betfred_uk | 1.53I 65.36% NM 61.76%EV -4.90% E -3.20% K -9.24% G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67% NM 15.75%EV -7.51% E -1.25% K -1.50% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.50%EV -5.81% E -1.38% K -1.82% G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-18 19:59 |
| Bet Victor | 1.50I 66.67% NM 61.89%EV -6.76% E -4.51% K -13.52% G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67% NM 15.47%EV -7.51% E -1.25% K -1.50% G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 22.64%EV -8.05% E -1.96% K -2.60% G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-06-19 13:50 |
| FanDuel | 1.48I 67.57% NM 62.54%EV -8.01% E -5.41% K -16.68% G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67% NM 15.43%EV -7.51% E -1.25% K -1.50% G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81% NM 22.04%EV -5.81% E -1.38% K -1.82% G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-18 15:41 |
| Paddy Power | 1.50I 66.67% NM 61.54%EV -6.76% E -4.51% K -13.52% G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67% NM 15.38%EV -7.51% E -1.25% K -1.50% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 23.08%EV -10.30% E -2.57% K -3.43% G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-18 15:40 |
| Sky Bet | 1.50I 66.67% NM 61.54%EV -6.76% E -4.51% K -13.52% G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67% NM 15.38%EV -7.51% E -1.25% K -1.50% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 23.08%EV -10.30% E -2.57% K -3.43% G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-06-18 18:10 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.50I 66.67% NM 61.13%EV -6.76% E -4.51% K -13.52% G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39% NM 15.95%EV -11.36% E -1.98% K -2.39% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 22.92%EV -10.30% E -2.57% K -3.43% G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-06-25 04:28 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.50I 66.67% NM 61.03%EV -6.76% E -4.51% K -13.52% G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18% NM 16.64%EV -15.21% E -2.77% K -3.38% G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39% NM 22.33%EV -8.05% E -1.96% K -2.60% G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-06-25 04:27 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 1.44I 69.44% NM 59.33%EV -10.49% E -7.29% K -23.84% G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18% NM 15.53%EV -15.21% E -2.77% K -3.38% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 25.13%EV -23.75% E -6.99% K -9.90% G +0.000% | 17.0% | 2026-06-18 20:20 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.37I 72.99% NM 61.94%EV -14.84% E -10.83% K -40.12% G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18% NM 15.43%EV -15.21% E -2.77% K -3.38% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 22.63%EV -15.90% E -4.24% K -5.78% G +0.000% | 17.8% | 2026-06-22 20:09 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.46I 68.49% NM 60.25%EV -9.25% E -6.33% K -20.11% G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52% NM 16.29%EV -16.76% E -3.10% K -3.81% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 23.46%EV -15.90% E -4.24% K -5.78% G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-06-25 04:27 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.46I 68.49% NM 60.06%EV -9.25% E -6.33% K -20.11% G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52% NM 16.24%EV -16.76% E -3.10% K -3.81% G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03% NM 23.70%EV -17.02% E -4.60% K -6.31% G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-06-25 04:28 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | AS Roma (Local) | Fiorentina (Visit) | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets | 1.41I 70.92% | 7.20I 13.89% | 4.10I 24.39% | 9.2% | 2026-06-23 10:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.09I 91.74% | 1.06I 94.34% | 1.01I 99.01% | 185.1% | 2026-06-25 11:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.09I 91.74% | 1.06I 94.34% | 1.01I 99.01% | 185.1% | 2026-06-25 11:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.06I 94.34% | 1.06I 94.34% | 1.01I 99.01% | 187.7% | 2026-06-25 11:10 |