The School of Odds
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AC Milan v Inter Milan

2026-10-31 19:45 UTC — Serie A - Italy

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AC Milan (Local)

Prediction 31.58%3.17fair odd
EV -0.519%
Edge -0.165%
Kelly -0.241%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.20%31.49%31.74%32.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.922.903.1537.04%34.23%34.48%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Inter Milan (Visit)

Prediction 42.20%2.37fair odd
EV -0.407%
Edge -0.173%
Kelly -0.300%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.02%42.25%42.07%43.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.202.202.3648.78%45.39%45.45%42.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.22%3.81fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -0.448%
Kelly -0.611%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.20%26.26%26.20%27.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.543.553.7529.41%28.21%28.17%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: AC Milan (Local): 31.58%; Inter Milan (Visit): 42.20%; Draw: 26.22%. For Inter Milan (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.37. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.36, with an expected value of -0.407%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.20%EV -0.519%E -0.165%K -0.241%G +0.000%2.19I 45.66%NM 43.44%EV -7.58%E -3.46%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.35%EV -5.35%E -1.48%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-25 21:41
1xBet🎯3.11I 32.15%NM 31.68%EV -1.78%E -0.573%K -0.845%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.75%EV -0.407%E -0.173%K -0.300%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 26.56%EV -2.73%E -0.736%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.5%2026-10-25 20:40
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.10%E -0.677%K -0.999%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -7.16%E -3.25%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -8.24%E -2.35%K -3.29%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-25 23:35
Marathon Bet🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 31.67%EV -4.62%E -1.53%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.76%EV -3.36%E -1.47%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.57%EV -5.61%E -1.56%K -2.16%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-25 20:40
GTbets🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.26%EV -6.84%E -2.32%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.74%EV -3.78%E -1.66%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.00%EV -4.04%E -1.10%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-25 20:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -6.84%E -2.32%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.73%EV -7.16%E -3.25%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -2.99%E -0.809%K -1.11%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-26 00:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -8.41%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -5.05%E -2.24%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -5.61%E -1.56%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-25 20:40
Bet Right🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -8.41%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.35%EV -7.16%E -3.25%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.53%EV -4.30%E -1.18%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-25 21:20
betano_uk🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -8.41%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -7.16%E -3.25%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -5.61%E -1.56%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-25 21:20
Bet Victor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.01%EV -8.41%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.20%EV -7.16%E -3.25%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -5.61%E -1.56%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-25 21:01
LeoVegas🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.90%EV -8.41%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.05%EV -7.16%E -3.25%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.06%EV -6.92%E -1.95%K -2.72%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-26 00:00
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -8.41%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -5.05%E -2.24%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -10.86%E -3.19%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-25 23:59
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -8.41%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -5.05%E -2.24%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -10.86%E -3.19%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-26 00:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -8.41%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -5.05%E -2.24%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -10.86%E -3.19%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-25 23:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -8.41%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -5.05%E -2.24%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -10.86%E -3.19%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-26 00:00
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -8.41%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -7.16%E -3.25%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -8.24%E -2.35%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 23:35
picklebet_au🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -8.41%E -2.90%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -7.16%E -3.25%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -8.24%E -2.35%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 20:40
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.81%EV -9.05%E -3.14%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.99%EV -5.05%E -2.24%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.20%EV -1.68%E -0.448%K -0.611%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-25 21:20
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.75%EV -9.05%E -3.14%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.20%EV -13.49%E -6.58%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -10.86%E -3.19%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-26 01:04
Winamax (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -9.99%E -3.51%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.52%EV -9.27%E -4.31%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -5.61%E -1.56%K -2.16%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 21:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.41%EV -9.99%E -3.51%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.63%EV -11.38%E -5.42%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.95%EV -9.55%E -2.77%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-25 21:19
Unibet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 31.21%EV -9.99%E -3.51%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.38%EV -13.49%E -6.58%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.41%EV -8.24%E -2.35%K -3.29%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-25 21:19
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.59%EV -14.73%E -5.46%K -8.67%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.90%EV -11.38%E -5.42%K -10.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.51%EV -9.55%E -2.77%K -3.90%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-25 21:18
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎3.23I 30.96%NM 30.05%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.72%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.23%3.0%2026-10-25 23:35
Smarkets◎2.78I 35.97%NM 31.71%2.12I 47.17%NM 41.58%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.71%13.4%2026-10-25 21:20