The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Torino v Monza

Kickoff: 2026-09-01 19:00 UTC

Final: Torino 0–1 Monza

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Torino (Local)

Prediction 48.24%2.07fair odd
EV -3.52%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -3.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.90%48.23%48.23%54.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.911.912.0063.69%52.23%52.36%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Monza (Visit)

Prediction 24.17%4.14fair odd
EV +1.51%
Edge +0.360%
Kelly +0.473%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.51%24.14%24.13%24.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.873.804.2027.03%25.84%26.32%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.59%3.62fair odd
EV -3.43%
Edge -0.981%
Kelly -1.37%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.61%27.63%27.64%28.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.323.303.5031.75%30.15%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Torino (Local): 48.24%; Monza (Visit): 24.17%; Draw: 27.59%. For Monza (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.14. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.51%.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 54.87%EV -24.26%E -15.45%K -42.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.51%EV +1.51%E +0.360%K +0.473%G +0.007%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.61%EV -3.43%E -0.981%K -1.37%G +0.000%16.1%2026-09-01 18:45
1xBet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.45%EV -8.83%E -4.67%K -9.92%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 22.91%EV -1.39%E -0.340%K -0.450%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.65%EV -6.74%E -2.00%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-01 18:50
Pinnacle🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.52%EV -4.49%E -2.27%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 23.96%EV -3.08%E -0.768%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.53%EV -3.71%E -1.06%K -1.49%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-01 18:55
Unibet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.19%EV -5.45%E -2.78%K -5.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -3.32%E -0.830%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.20%EV -7.57%E -2.26%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-01 18:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.32%EV -5.93%E -3.04%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.56%EV -3.32%E -0.830%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -7.57%E -2.26%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-01 18:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.32%EV -5.93%E -3.04%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.56%EV -3.32%E -0.830%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -7.57%E -2.26%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-01 18:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.32%EV -5.93%E -3.04%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.56%EV -3.32%E -0.830%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -7.57%E -2.26%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-01 18:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.32%EV -5.93%E -3.04%K -6.24%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.56%EV -3.32%E -0.830%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.13%EV -7.57%E -2.26%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-01 18:55
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -7.86%E -4.12%K -8.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -3.32%E -0.830%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -8.95%E -2.71%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-01 18:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.84%EV -10.76%E -5.81%K -12.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -3.32%E -0.830%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -6.19%E -1.82%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-01 18:45
Codere (IT)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.25%EV -5.45%E -2.78%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.94%EV -4.53%E -1.15%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -6.19%E -1.82%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-01 18:55
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -5.93%E -3.04%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -5.74%E -1.47%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.19%E -1.82%K -2.58%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-01 18:45
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.27%EV -8.34%E -4.39%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -5.74%E -1.47%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -10.33%E -3.18%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-01 18:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.27%EV -8.34%E -4.39%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -5.74%E -1.47%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -10.33%E -3.18%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-01 18:55
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.29%EV -3.52%E -1.76%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -8.15%E -2.15%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.82%EV -6.19%E -1.82%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-01 18:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -3.52%E -1.76%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -8.15%E -2.15%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -8.95%E -2.71%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-01 18:45
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -7.86%E -4.12%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -8.15%E -2.15%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -3.43%E -0.981%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-01 18:55
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -7.86%E -4.12%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -8.15%E -2.15%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -3.43%E -0.981%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-01 18:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.89%EV -8.83%E -4.67%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.82%EV -8.15%E -2.15%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -11.71%E -3.66%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-01 18:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.89%EV -8.83%E -4.67%K -9.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.82%EV -8.15%E -2.15%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.29%EV -11.71%E -3.66%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-01 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.81%EV -9.31%E -4.95%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -8.15%E -2.15%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.53%EV -13.09%E -4.16%K -6.09%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-01 18:55
Grosvenor🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.81%EV -9.31%E -4.95%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -8.15%E -2.15%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.53%EV -13.09%E -4.16%K -6.09%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-01 18:55
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -5.93%E -3.04%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -9.36%E -2.50%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -11.71%E -3.66%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-01 18:55
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -5.93%E -3.04%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -9.36%E -2.50%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -11.71%E -3.66%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-01 18:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -5.93%E -3.04%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -9.36%E -2.50%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -11.71%E -3.66%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-01 18:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -5.93%E -3.04%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -9.36%E -2.50%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -11.71%E -3.66%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-01 18:55
betano_uk🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.02%EV -8.34%E -4.39%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -9.36%E -2.50%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -8.95%E -2.71%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-01 18:53
Bet Victor🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.02%EV -8.34%E -4.39%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -9.36%E -2.50%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.65%EV -8.95%E -2.71%K -3.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-01 18:53
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.42%EV -9.79%E -5.24%K -11.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.14%EV -9.36%E -2.50%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -8.95%E -2.71%K -3.89%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-01 18:45
BetMGM🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -5.93%E -3.04%K -6.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.78%EV -10.57%E -2.86%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.21%EV -10.33%E -3.18%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-01 18:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.06%EV -8.34%E -4.39%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.68%EV -10.57%E -2.86%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.26%EV -7.57%E -2.26%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-01 18:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 49.05%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.91%0.9%2026-09-01 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 49.05%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.91%0.9%2026-09-01 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.02I 49.50%NM 49.05%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.91%0.9%2026-09-01 18:55