The School of Odds
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Lazio v Atalanta BC

Kickoff: 2026-03-04 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

35 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lazio (Local)

Prediction 31.75%3.15fair odd
EV +0.005%
Edge +0.002%
Kelly +0.002%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.32%31.69%31.74%32.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.972.953.1535.71%33.67%33.90%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atalanta BC (Visit)

Prediction 36.98%2.70fair odd
EV -2.74%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.19%37.11%36.91%38.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.482.502.6343.48%40.28%40.00%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.27%3.20fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -0.475%
Kelly -0.697%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.92%31.20%31.35%32.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.983.003.1537.04%33.51%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lazio (Local): 31.75%; Atalanta BC (Visit): 36.98%; Draw: 31.27%. For Lazio (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.1498. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.1500, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.005%.

Sportsbook Odds (35 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.80%EV +0.005%E +0.002%K +0.002%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.90%EV -5.33%E -2.08%K -3.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.30%EV -3.06%E -0.987%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-04 19:50
Svenska Spel🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.67%EV +0.005%E +0.002%K +0.002%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.65%EV -7.55%E -3.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.67%EV -1.50%E -0.475%K -0.697%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-04 19:50
ATG (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.67%EV +0.005%E +0.002%K +0.002%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.65%EV -7.55%E -3.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.67%EV -1.50%E -0.475%K -0.697%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-04 19:50
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.32%EV -1.58%E -0.510%K -0.754%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -9.39%E -3.83%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.33%EV -6.19%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-04 19:55
Betclic (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.54%EV -3.17%E -1.04%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.73%EV -5.70%E -2.23%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.73%EV -2.12%E -0.678%K -0.997%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-04 19:53
Unibet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -3.17%E -1.04%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -9.39%E -3.83%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -4.62%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-04 19:50
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -3.17%E -1.04%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -9.39%E -3.83%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -4.62%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-04 19:50
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -3.17%E -1.04%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.36%EV -9.39%E -3.83%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.82%EV -4.62%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-04 19:50
Grosvenor🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -3.17%E -1.04%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.56%EV -10.13%E -4.17%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -4.62%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-04 19:50
LeoVegas🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -3.17%E -1.04%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.36%EV -10.13%E -4.17%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -6.19%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-04 19:50
LiveScore Bet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -3.17%E -1.04%K -1.55%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.36%EV -10.13%E -4.17%K -7.09%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.07%EV -6.19%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-04 19:50
Pinnacle🎯3.04I 32.89%NM 31.85%EV -3.49%E -1.15%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.82%EV -2.74%E -1.04%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.33%EV -3.37%E -1.09%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-04 19:45
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.71%EV -4.76%E -1.59%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.85%E -1.48%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.71%EV -6.19%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 19:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.36%EV -4.76%E -1.59%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -3.85%E -1.48%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.45%EV -9.32%E -3.21%K -4.90%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-04 19:20
Unibet (FR)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -4.76%E -1.59%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.69%EV -8.29%E -3.34%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.16%EV -6.19%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-04 19:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -4.76%E -1.59%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -11.24%E -4.68%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.77%EV -6.19%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-04 19:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -6.34%E -2.15%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.84%EV -5.70%E -2.23%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%EV -6.19%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-04 19:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -6.34%E -2.15%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.84%EV -5.70%E -2.23%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%EV -6.19%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-04 19:55
NetBet (FR)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.45%EV -6.34%E -2.15%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -7.55%E -3.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.45%EV -7.75%E -2.63%K -3.98%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-04 19:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.46%EV -6.34%E -2.15%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.56%EV -13.83%E -5.94%K -10.40%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.98%EV -9.32%E -3.21%K -4.90%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-04 19:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -7.93%E -2.74%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.29%EV -7.55%E -3.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.56%EV -4.62%E -1.52%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-04 19:55
Betway🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.98%EV -7.93%E -2.74%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.10%EV -7.55%E -3.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.92%EV -6.19%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-04 19:54
Paddy Power🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -7.93%E -2.74%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -7.55%E -3.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -9.32%E -3.21%K -4.90%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-04 19:44
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -7.93%E -2.74%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.38%EV -9.39%E -3.83%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -7.75%E -2.63%K -3.98%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-04 19:55
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -7.93%E -2.74%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -7.55%E -3.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -9.94%E -3.45%K -5.29%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-04 19:20
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -7.93%E -2.74%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -7.55%E -3.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -9.94%E -3.45%K -5.29%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-04 19:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -7.93%E -2.74%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -7.55%E -3.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -9.94%E -3.45%K -5.29%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-04 19:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -7.93%E -2.74%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -7.55%E -3.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -9.94%E -3.45%K -5.29%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-04 19:20
BetMGM🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.58%EV -7.93%E -2.74%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.63%EV -7.55%E -3.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.80%EV -9.94%E -3.45%K -5.29%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-04 19:20
BoyleSports🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -7.93%E -2.74%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -11.24%E -4.68%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.17%EV -9.32%E -3.21%K -4.90%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-04 18:43
Sky Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.21%EV -8.57%E -2.97%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.86%EV -9.39%E -3.83%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.92%EV -3.06%E -0.987%K -1.46%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-04 19:45
SportsBet🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.53%EV -8.88%E -3.10%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.94%EV -9.39%E -3.83%K -6.48%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.53%EV -10.25%E -3.57%K -5.48%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-04 19:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -9.52%E -3.34%K -5.15%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.89%EV -7.55%E -3.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.74%EV -6.19%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-04 19:55
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.75%EV -11.11%E -3.97%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.68%EV -7.55%E -3.02%K -5.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.57%EV -6.19%E -2.06%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-04 19:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.73%EV -11.11%E -3.97%K -6.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.41%EV -14.94%E -6.50%K -11.49%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.87%EV -15.57%E -5.77%K -9.16%G +0.000%16.2%2026-03-04 19:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.65%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.20%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.15%0.3%2026-03-04 19:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.65%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.20%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.15%0.3%2026-03-04 19:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.65%2.68I 37.31%NM 37.20%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.15%0.3%2026-03-04 19:55