Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

PAOK Thessaloniki v Levadiakos

Inicio: 2026-08-23 18:00 UTC

Final: PAOK Thessaloniki 4–0 Levadiakos

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

PAOK Thessaloniki (Local)

Predicción 68.58%1.46momio equitativo
EV -3.99%
Ventaja -2.85%
Kelly -9.96%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
65.86%68.62%68.73%70.77%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.241.331.331.4080.65%75.01%75.19%71.43%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Levadiakos (Visitante)

Predicción 11.54%8.67momio equitativo
EV +8.66%
Ventaja +0.919%
Kelly +1.03%
Crecimiento +0.089%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 9.42

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
9.91%11.60%11.33%13.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
6.507.878.009.4215.38%12.71%12.50%10.62%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 19.88%5.03momio equitativo
EV -0.385%
Ventaja -0.077%
Kelly -0.096%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.01

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.40%19.79%19.94%21.16%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.204.574.605.0123.81%21.87%21.74%19.96%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: PAOK Thessaloniki (Local): 68.58%; Levadiakos (Visitante): 11.54%; Empate: 19.88%. Para Levadiakos (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 8.67. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 9.42, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +8.66%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.16%EV -7.41%E -5.49%K -21.19%G +0.000%9.42I 10.62%NM 9.91%EV +8.66%E +0.919%K +1.03%G +0.089%4.46I 22.42%NM 20.93%EV -11.32%E -2.54%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 17:50
Coolbet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.05%EV -5.36%E -3.88%K -14.10%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.89%EV +0.933%E +0.107%K +0.120%G +0.001%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.06%EV -5.55%E -1.17%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-23 17:49
Pinnacle🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.79%EV -6.04%E -4.41%K -16.33%G +0.000%8.59I 11.64%NM 11.13%EV -0.913%E -0.106%K -0.120%G +0.000%5.01I 19.96%NM 19.08%EV -0.385%E -0.077%K -0.096%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-23 17:44
Unibet (UK)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.54%EV -6.04%E -4.41%K -16.33%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.05%EV -1.95%E -0.230%K -0.260%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV -8.54%E -1.86%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-23 17:44
FanDuel🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.03%EV -8.79%E -6.61%K -26.63%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.96%EV -1.95%E -0.230%K -0.260%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -2.57%E -0.525%K -0.659%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 17:44
Bet Victor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.62%EV -8.79%E -6.61%K -26.63%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV -1.95%E -0.230%K -0.260%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -5.55%E -1.17%K -1.48%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-23 17:43
betano_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.62%EV -8.79%E -6.61%K -26.63%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV -1.95%E -0.230%K -0.260%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.49%EV -5.55%E -1.17%K -1.48%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-23 17:43
William Hill🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.55%EV -7.41%E -5.49%K -21.19%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.89%EV -1.95%E -0.230%K -0.260%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.56%EV -10.53%E -2.34%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-23 17:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -10.84%E -8.34%K -36.15%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -1.95%E -0.230%K -0.260%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -0.583%E -0.117%K -0.146%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-23 17:44
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.87%EV -8.79%E -6.61%K -26.63%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -1.95%E -0.230%K -0.260%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.35%EV -10.53%E -2.34%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-23 17:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.87%EV -8.79%E -6.61%K -26.63%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -1.95%E -0.230%K -0.260%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.35%EV -10.53%E -2.34%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-23 17:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.87%EV -8.79%E -6.61%K -26.63%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -1.95%E -0.230%K -0.260%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.35%EV -10.53%E -2.34%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-23 17:54
SportsBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.69%EV -9.47%E -7.18%K -29.60%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.15%EV -4.84%E -0.586%K -0.667%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.16%EV -4.56%E -0.950%K -1.20%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-23 17:44
Betsson🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.19%EV -6.73%E -4.95%K -18.69%G +0.000%8.21I 12.18%NM 11.30%EV -5.30%E -0.645%K -0.735%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 20.52%EV -10.13%E -2.24%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-23 17:44
Suprabets🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.16%EV -7.41%E -5.49%K -21.19%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.39%EV -5.41%E -0.660%K -0.752%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.45%EV -4.56%E -0.950%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-23 17:33
NordicBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.28%EV -7.41%E -5.49%K -21.19%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.24%EV -5.41%E -0.660%K -0.752%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -10.53%E -2.34%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-23 17:44
DraftKings🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.77%EV -5.36%E -3.88%K -14.10%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV -7.72%E -0.965%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.37%EV -2.57%E -0.525%K -0.659%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-23 17:44
Bet Right🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.61%EV -6.73%E -4.95%K -18.69%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -7.72%E -0.965%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -12.51%E -2.84%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 17:50
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.38%EV -6.73%E -4.95%K -18.69%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.45%EV -7.72%E -0.965%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.16%EV -13.91%E -3.21%K -4.18%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-23 17:50
Bovada🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.71%EV -8.79%E -6.61%K -26.63%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -7.72%E -0.965%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.87%EV -8.54%E -1.86%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-23 17:53
TABtouch🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.87%EV -9.47%E -7.18%K -29.60%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -7.72%E -0.965%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -8.54%E -1.86%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 17:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.87%EV -9.47%E -7.18%K -29.60%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -7.72%E -0.965%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -8.54%E -1.86%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 17:39
Grosvenor🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.87%EV -9.47%E -7.18%K -29.60%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -7.72%E -0.965%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -8.54%E -1.86%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 17:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.87%EV -9.47%E -7.18%K -29.60%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -7.72%E -0.965%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -8.54%E -1.86%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 17:39
Casumo🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.87%EV -9.47%E -7.18%K -29.60%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -7.72%E -0.965%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -8.54%E -1.86%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 17:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.87%EV -9.47%E -7.18%K -29.60%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -7.72%E -0.965%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -8.54%E -1.86%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 17:39
ATG (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.87%EV -9.47%E -7.18%K -29.60%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -7.72%E -0.965%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -8.54%E -1.86%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 17:39
Unibet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 68.87%EV -9.47%E -7.18%K -29.60%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -7.72%E -0.965%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -8.54%E -1.86%K -2.37%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 17:39
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.63%EV -10.84%E -8.34%K -36.15%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.31%EV -7.72%E -0.965%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.06%EV -5.55%E -1.17%K -1.48%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-23 17:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.20%EV -10.84%E -8.34%K -36.15%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.24%EV -7.72%E -0.965%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%EV -8.54%E -1.86%K -2.37%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-23 17:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.75%EV -10.84%E -8.34%K -36.15%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.17%EV -7.72%E -0.965%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.08%EV -11.52%E -2.59%K -3.34%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-23 17:43
LiveScore Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.06%EV -11.53%E -8.94%K -39.76%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.14%EV -7.72%E -0.965%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -10.53%E -2.34%K -3.01%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-23 17:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.06%EV -11.53%E -8.94%K -39.76%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.14%EV -7.72%E -0.965%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -10.53%E -2.34%K -3.01%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-23 17:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.06%EV -11.53%E -8.94%K -39.76%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.14%EV -7.72%E -0.965%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -10.53%E -2.34%K -3.01%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-23 17:39
Codere (IT)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 67.74%EV -8.10%E -6.05%K -23.83%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.64%EV -10.03%E -1.29%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -12.51%E -2.84%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-23 17:44
Betr (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.20%EV -7.41%E -5.49%K -21.19%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.71%EV -10.60%E -1.37%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.10%EV -14.50%E -3.37%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-23 17:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 69.04%EV -14.96%E -12.06%K -62.33%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.05%EV -10.60%E -1.37%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 19.91%EV -14.50%E -3.37%K -4.39%G +0.000%16.8%2026-08-23 17:50
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.50%EV -3.99%E -2.85%K -9.96%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -13.49%E -1.80%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -5.55%E -1.17%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-23 17:34
Betway🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.30%EV -7.41%E -5.49%K -21.19%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -13.49%E -1.80%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.41%EV -5.55%E -1.17%K -1.48%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-23 17:55
Fanatics🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -6.73%E -4.95%K -18.69%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -13.49%E -1.80%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -10.53%E -2.34%K -3.01%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-23 17:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.44%EV -10.84%E -8.34%K -36.15%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.69%EV -13.49%E -1.80%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.87%EV -16.49%E -3.93%K -5.15%G +0.000%14.1%2026-08-23 17:44
PMU (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 68.77%EV -14.27%E -11.42%K -57.09%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.46%EV -13.49%E -1.80%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 19.76%EV -13.51%E -3.11%K -4.03%G +0.000%16.3%2026-08-23 17:20
LowVig.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.56%EV -5.36%E -3.88%K -14.10%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.60%EV -14.64%E -1.98%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV -6.55%E -1.39%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 17:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.56%EV -5.36%E -3.88%K -14.10%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.60%EV -14.64%E -1.98%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV -6.55%E -1.39%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 17:54
BetUS🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.72%EV -6.04%E -4.41%K -16.33%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.54%EV -14.64%E -1.98%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.74%EV -6.55%E -1.39%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-23 17:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.03%EV -8.10%E -6.05%K -23.83%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.57%EV -16.37%E -2.26%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.40%EV -6.55%E -1.39%K -1.77%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-23 17:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.78%EV -9.47%E -7.18%K -29.60%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.34%EV -16.37%E -2.26%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.88%EV -10.53%E -2.34%K -3.01%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-23 17:44
BoyleSports🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.81%EV -10.84%E -8.34%K -36.15%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.59%EV -19.25%E -2.75%K -3.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.59%EV -10.53%E -2.34%K -3.01%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-23 17:38
Neds🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.86%EV -6.73%E -4.95%K -18.69%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -25.02%E -3.85%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.36%EV -12.51%E -2.84%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-23 17:34
Coral🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.86%EV -6.73%E -4.95%K -18.69%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -25.02%E -3.85%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.36%EV -12.51%E -2.84%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-23 17:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.86%EV -6.73%E -4.95%K -18.69%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -25.02%E -3.85%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.36%EV -12.51%E -2.84%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-23 17:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.86%EV -6.73%E -4.95%K -18.69%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -25.02%E -3.85%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.36%EV -12.51%E -2.84%K -3.68%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-23 17:34
Sky Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 66.25%EV -10.84%E -8.34%K -36.15%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.25%EV -25.02%E -3.85%K -4.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.50%EV -16.49%E -3.93%K -5.15%G +0.000%16.1%2026-08-23 17:44
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.61%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.95%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.43%0.5%2026-08-23 17:54
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.61%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.95%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.43%0.5%2026-08-23 17:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.61%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.95%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.43%0.5%2026-08-23 17:54
Kalshi◎1.39I 71.94%NM 70.56%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.79%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.65%2.0%2026-08-23 17:40
Smarkets◎1.37I 72.99%NM 71.46%9.40I 10.64%NM 10.41%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.13%2.1%2026-08-23 17:50