The School of Odds

PAOK Thessaloniki v Levadiakos

2026-08-22 15:00 UTC — Super League - Greece

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

PAOK Thessaloniki (Local)

Prediction 70.67%1.41fair odd
EV -6.00%
Edge -4.51%
Kelly -18.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.92%70.67%70.34%72.10%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.241.281.271.3381%78%79%75%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Levadiakos (Visit)

Prediction 10.02%9.98fair odd
EV +0.230%
Edge +0.023%
Kelly +0.026%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.30%10.02%10.17%12.03%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
7.008.699.2010.0014%12%11%10%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 19.30%5.18fair odd
EV -3.49%
Edge -0.697%
Kelly -0.872%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.60%19.30%19.49%20.05%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.204.654.755.0024%21%21%20%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel1.29I 77.52%NM 72.10%EV -8.83%E -6.85%K -30.45%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.30%EV +0.230%E +0.023%K +0.026%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -3.49%E -0.697%K -0.872%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-21 11:33
SportsBet1.27I 78.74%NM 71.97%EV -10.24%E -8.07%K -37.94%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.37%EV -2.28%E -0.233%K -0.260%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.65%EV -5.42%E -1.11%K -1.39%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-21 11:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.25I 80.00%NM 71.70%EV -11.66%E -9.33%K -46.63%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.43%EV -4.78%E -0.503%K -0.563%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.87%EV -8.31%E -1.75%K -2.22%G +0.000%11.6%2026-07-21 11:35
Betsson1.33I 75.19%NM 70.34%EV -6.00%E -4.51%K -18.19%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.17%EV -7.79%E -0.847%K -0.950%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.49%EV -7.35%E -1.53%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-21 11:35
NordicBet1.33I 75.19%NM 70.34%EV -6.00%E -4.51%K -18.19%G +0.000%9.20I 10.87%NM 10.17%EV -7.79%E -0.847%K -0.950%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.49%EV -7.35%E -1.53%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-21 11:35
Codere (IT)1.31I 76.34%NM 69.58%EV -7.42%E -5.66%K -23.92%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.60%EV -13.80%E -1.60%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.82%EV -11.21%E -2.44%K -3.11%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-21 11:35
Winamax (DE)1.27I 78.74%NM 68.89%EV -10.24%E -8.07%K -37.94%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.67%EV -24.83%E -3.31%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.44%EV -13.14%E -2.92%K -3.75%G +0.000%14.3%2026-07-21 11:35
Sky Bet1.25I 80.00%NM 68.71%EV -11.66%E -9.33%K -46.63%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.45%EV -24.83%E -3.31%K -3.82%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.84%EV -16.42%E -3.79%K -4.93%G +0.000%16.4%2026-07-21 11:34
Winamax (FR)1.24I 80.65%NM 67.92%EV -12.36%E -9.97%K -51.52%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.03%EV -29.84%E -4.26%K -4.97%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.05%EV -18.93%E -4.51%K -5.92%G +0.000%18.7%2026-07-21 11:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-21 11:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-21 12:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-21 12:25