The School of Odds
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PAOK Thessaloniki v Kalamata FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-12 15:00 UTC

Final: PAOK Thessaloniki 1–3 Kalamata FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

52 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

PAOK Thessaloniki (Local)

Prediction 76.79%1.30fair odd
EV -4.01%
Edge -3.21%
Kelly -16.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.05%76.94%76.92%79.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.191.201.2589.29%83.76%83.33%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kalamata FC (Visit)

Prediction 8.53%11.72fair odd
EV +10.92%
Edge +0.840%
Kelly +0.910%
Growth +0.099%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.07%8.47%8.57%10.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.5010.7010.9513.0011.76%9.34%9.13%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.68%6.81fair odd
EV +9.94%
Edge +1.33%
Kelly +1.53%
Growth +0.152%

assuming max odds 7.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.74%14.58%14.50%16.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.506.156.007.4918.18%16.25%16.67%13.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: PAOK Thessaloniki (Local): 76.79%; Kalamata FC (Visit): 8.53%; Draw: 14.68%. For Kalamata FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.72. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.92%.

Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.52%EV -7.85%E -6.54%K -39.27%G +0.000%12.32I 8.12%NM 7.75%EV +5.12%E +0.416%K +0.452%G +0.023%7.49I 13.35%NM 12.74%EV +9.94%E +1.33%K +1.53%G +0.152%4.8%2026-10-12 14:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.36%EV -7.85%E -6.54%K -39.27%G +0.000%12.25I 8.16%NM 7.77%EV +4.52%E +0.369%K +0.402%G +0.018%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.87%EV +8.62%E +1.17%K +1.35%G +0.116%5.0%2026-10-12 14:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.36%EV -7.85%E -6.54%K -39.27%G +0.000%12.25I 8.16%NM 7.77%EV +4.52%E +0.369%K +0.402%G +0.018%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.87%EV +8.62%E +1.17%K +1.35%G +0.116%5.0%2026-10-12 14:39
BetUS🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 79.36%EV -7.85%E -6.54%K -39.27%G +0.000%12.25I 8.16%NM 7.77%EV +4.52%E +0.369%K +0.402%G +0.018%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.87%EV +8.62%E +1.17%K +1.35%G +0.116%5.0%2026-10-12 14:40
Betway🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.43%EV -7.85%E -6.54%K -39.27%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.29%EV -14.67%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV +2.75%E +0.393%K +0.459%G +0.013%7.6%2026-10-12 14:44
Winamax (DE)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 76.98%EV -9.39%E -7.96%K -52.16%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.56%EV -18.94%E -1.99%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.46%EV -0.918%E -0.136%K -0.160%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-12 14:50
Tipico (DE)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.22%EV -10.93%E -9.42%K -68.28%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV +10.92%E +0.840%K +0.910%G +0.099%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.72%EV -1.65%E -0.247%K -0.290%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-12 14:44
DraftKings🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.01%EV -6.32%E -5.18%K -28.72%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.54%EV -6.14%E -0.558%K -0.614%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -4.59%E -0.706%K -0.834%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-12 14:55
Fanatics🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.58%EV -7.85%E -6.54%K -39.27%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV -1.88%E -0.163%K -0.179%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV -4.59%E -0.706%K -0.834%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-12 14:34
FanDuel🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.13%EV -9.39%E -7.96%K -52.16%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV +2.39%E +0.199%K +0.217%G +0.005%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -4.59%E -0.706%K -0.834%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-12 14:44
888sport🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.65%EV -7.85%E -6.54%K -39.27%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -14.67%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -4.59%E -0.706%K -0.834%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-12 14:34
William Hill🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.65%EV -7.85%E -6.54%K -39.27%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -14.67%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -4.59%E -0.706%K -0.834%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-12 14:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.65%EV -7.85%E -6.54%K -39.27%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -14.67%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -4.59%E -0.706%K -0.834%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-12 14:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.65%EV -7.85%E -6.54%K -39.27%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.20%EV -14.67%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.15%EV -4.59%E -0.706%K -0.834%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-12 14:34
SportsBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.28%EV -10.16%E -8.68%K -59.75%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.63%EV +2.39%E +0.199%K +0.217%G +0.005%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.09%EV -4.59%E -0.706%K -0.834%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-12 14:45
1xBet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.88%EV -6.32%E -5.18%K -28.72%G +0.000%10.90I 9.17%NM 8.60%EV -7.00%E -0.642%K -0.707%G +0.000%6.46I 15.48%NM 14.52%EV -5.18%E -0.801%K -0.948%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-12 14:54
Betsson🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.49%EV -7.09%E -5.86%K -33.74%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.81%EV -10.41%E -0.991%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.69%EV -7.52%E -1.19%K -1.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-12 14:55
Coolbet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 77.43%EV -5.55%E -4.51%K -24.13%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.33%EV +10.92%E +0.840%K +0.910%G +0.099%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.24%EV -8.26%E -1.32%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-12 14:39
Bovada🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.22%EV -7.85%E -6.54%K -39.27%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV -14.67%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.63%EV -8.26%E -1.32%K -1.57%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-12 14:53
Winamax (FR)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 75.92%EV -10.16%E -8.68%K -59.75%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.87%EV -23.21%E -2.58%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.21%EV -8.26%E -1.32%K -1.57%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-12 14:50
NordicBet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.46%EV -7.85%E -6.54%K -39.27%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.74%EV -10.41%E -0.991%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 14.80%EV -8.99%E -1.45%K -1.73%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-12 14:49
BetMGM🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.34%EV -4.01%E -3.21%K -16.06%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.97%EV -10.41%E -0.991%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-12 14:19
Unibet (UK)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.94%EV -5.55%E -4.51%K -24.13%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -6.14%E -0.558%K -0.614%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.57%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-12 14:49
betano_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.37%EV -6.32%E -5.18%K -28.72%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV -1.88%E -0.163%K -0.179%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-12 14:49
Bet Victor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.37%EV -6.32%E -5.18%K -28.72%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV -1.88%E -0.163%K -0.179%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-12 14:49
betfred_uk🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -7.85%E -6.54%K -39.27%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -6.14%E -0.558%K -0.614%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-12 14:55
Casumo🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -7.85%E -6.54%K -39.27%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -6.14%E -0.558%K -0.614%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-12 14:24
Grosvenor🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -7.85%E -6.54%K -39.27%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -6.14%E -0.558%K -0.614%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-12 14:24
Unibet (NL)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -7.85%E -6.54%K -39.27%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -6.14%E -0.558%K -0.614%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-12 14:25
TABtouch🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -7.85%E -6.54%K -39.27%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -6.14%E -0.558%K -0.614%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-12 14:24
Unibet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -7.85%E -6.54%K -39.27%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -6.14%E -0.558%K -0.614%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-12 14:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -7.85%E -6.54%K -39.27%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -6.14%E -0.558%K -0.614%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-12 14:24
Svenska Spel🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -7.85%E -6.54%K -39.27%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -6.14%E -0.558%K -0.614%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-12 14:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -7.85%E -6.54%K -39.27%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -6.14%E -0.558%K -0.614%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-12 14:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 77.15%EV -11.69%E -10.17%K -77.95%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.07%EV -6.14%E -0.558%K -0.614%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.79%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-12 14:49
Paddy Power🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 77.30%EV -12.46%E -10.93%K -89.01%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.01%EV -6.14%E -0.558%K -0.614%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.69%EV -11.93%E -1.99%K -2.39%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-12 14:45
NetBet (FR)🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 76.65%EV -14.00%E -12.50%K -116.64%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 8.80%EV -16.81%E -1.72%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.55%EV -13.40%E -2.27%K -2.73%G +0.000%16.5%2026-10-12 14:53
Codere (IT)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.21%EV -7.09%E -5.86%K -33.74%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.10%EV -14.67%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.69%EV -14.86%E -2.56%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-12 14:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.15%EV -10.16%E -8.68%K -59.75%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.49%EV -10.41%E -0.991%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.36%EV -14.86%E -2.56%K -3.10%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-12 14:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.15%EV -10.16%E -8.68%K -59.75%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.49%EV -10.41%E -0.991%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.36%EV -14.86%E -2.56%K -3.10%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-12 14:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 76.15%EV -10.16%E -8.68%K -59.75%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.49%EV -10.41%E -0.991%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.36%EV -14.86%E -2.56%K -3.10%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-12 14:25
Bet Right🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.73%EV -7.09%E -5.86%K -33.74%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -6.14%E -0.558%K -0.614%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.94%EV -15.60%E -2.71%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-12 14:39
Betclic (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 75.72%EV -10.93%E -9.42%K -68.28%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.01%EV -16.81%E -1.72%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.28%EV -15.60%E -2.71%K -3.28%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-12 14:53
PMU (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 76.37%EV -13.23%E -11.71%K -101.76%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.22%EV -10.41%E -0.991%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.41%EV -17.80%E -3.18%K -3.87%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-12 14:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 75.34%EV -7.85%E -6.54%K -39.27%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.22%EV -6.14%E -0.558%K -0.614%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.44%EV -19.27%E -3.50%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-12 14:35
Neds🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.06%EV -6.32%E -5.18%K -28.72%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -18.94%E -1.99%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -19.27%E -3.50%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-12 14:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.06%EV -6.32%E -5.18%K -28.72%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -18.94%E -1.99%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -19.27%E -3.50%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-12 14:20
Coral🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.06%EV -6.32%E -5.18%K -28.72%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -18.94%E -1.99%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -19.27%E -3.50%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-12 14:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.06%EV -6.32%E -5.18%K -28.72%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.51%EV -18.94%E -1.99%K -2.23%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.43%EV -19.27%E -3.50%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-12 14:19
BoyleSports🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 74.73%EV -7.85%E -6.54%K -39.27%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.97%EV -14.67%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -19.27%E -3.50%K -4.28%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-12 14:34
Sky Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 74.05%EV -10.16%E -8.68%K -59.75%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.19%EV -27.47%E -3.23%K -3.66%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.75%EV -19.27%E -3.50%K -4.28%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-12 14:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 74.97%EV -12.46%E -10.93%K -89.01%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.50%EV -23.21%E -2.58%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.54%EV -19.27%E -3.50%K -4.28%G +0.000%17.0%2026-10-12 14:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.24I 80.65%NM 80.16%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.41%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.43%0.6%2026-10-12 14:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.24I 80.65%NM 80.16%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.41%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.43%0.6%2026-10-12 14:54
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.24I 80.65%NM 80.16%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.41%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.43%0.6%2026-10-12 14:50
Kalshi◎1.23I 81.30%NM 80.26%14.29I 7.00%NM 6.91%7.69I 13.00%NM 12.84%1.3%2026-10-12 14:35
Smarkets◎1.23I 81.30%NM 80.11%14.99I 6.67%NM 6.57%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.32%1.5%2026-10-12 14:50