The School of Odds
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PAOK Thessaloniki v Kalamata FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-10 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

PAOK Thessaloniki (Local)

Prediction 77.03%1.30fair odd
EV -3.72%
Edge -2.97%
Kelly -14.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.29%77.03%77.74%79.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.191.171.2587.72%83.68%85.11%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kalamata FC (Visit)

Prediction 7.31%13.67fair odd
EV +2.40%
Edge +0.172%
Kelly +0.185%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 14.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.49%7.31%7.10%8.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0012.6213.0014.0010.00%7.92%7.69%7.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.66%6.39fair odd
EV +10.39%
Edge +1.47%
Kelly +1.72%
Growth +0.179%

assuming max odds 7.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.13%15.66%15.16%18.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.755.757.0520.00%17.38%17.39%14.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: PAOK Thessaloniki (Local): 77.03%; Kalamata FC (Visit): 7.31%; Draw: 15.66%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.39. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.39%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%EV -9.11%E -7.72%K -50.60%G +0.000%11.22I 8.91%NM 8.26%EV -17.93%E -1.60%K -1.75%G +0.000%7.05I 14.18%NM 13.15%EV +10.39%E +1.47%K +1.72%G +0.179%7.8%2026-09-21 11:24
Bovada🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 79.22%EV -10.65%E -9.18%K -66.56%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.66%EV -12.23%E -1.02%K -1.11%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV +9.61%E +1.37%K +1.60%G +0.154%8.8%2026-09-21 11:18
FanDuel🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 78.21%EV -9.88%E -8.44%K -58.11%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.54%EV +2.40%E +0.172%K +0.185%G +0.004%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -6.05%E -1.01%K -1.21%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-21 06:13
SportsBet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 78.36%EV -10.65%E -9.18%K -66.56%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.49%EV +2.40%E +0.172%K +0.185%G +0.004%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.15%EV -6.05%E -1.01%K -1.21%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-21 06:09
Paddy Power🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 78.27%EV -12.19%E -10.69%K -87.07%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.86%EV -4.91%E -0.378%K -0.409%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.87%EV -6.05%E -1.01%K -1.21%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-21 06:08
Sky Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 75.68%EV -12.19%E -10.69%K -87.07%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.63%EV -26.85%E -2.69%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.69%EV -13.88%E -2.52%K -3.08%G +0.000%15.9%2026-09-21 11:29
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.29%EV -3.72%E -2.97%K -14.87%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -4.91%E -0.378%K -0.409%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -21.71%E -4.34%K -5.43%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-21 04:49
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.29%EV -3.72%E -2.97%K -14.87%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -4.91%E -0.378%K -0.409%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -21.71%E -4.34%K -5.43%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-21 04:48
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.29%EV -3.72%E -2.97%K -14.87%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -4.91%E -0.378%K -0.409%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -21.71%E -4.34%K -5.43%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-21 04:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.29%EV -3.72%E -2.97%K -14.87%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -4.91%E -0.378%K -0.409%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -21.71%E -4.34%K -5.43%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-21 04:48
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.