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PAOK Thessaloniki v Iraklis FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
PAOK Thessaloniki (Local)
Prediction 70.51%1.42fair odd
EV -4.11%
Edge -3.02%
Kelly -11.41%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.39%70.63%70.40%72.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.291.301.3683.33%77.45%76.92%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Iraklis FC (Visit)
Prediction 10.82%9.24fair odd
EV +13.59%
Edge +1.29%
Kelly +1.43%
Growth +0.194%
assuming max odds 10.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.90%10.75%10.92%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.208.628.5010.5013.89%11.60%11.76%9.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 18.67%5.36fair odd
EV +0.834%
Edge +0.154%
Kelly +0.190%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 5.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.52%18.62%18.67%19.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.454.904.905.4022.47%20.40%20.41%18.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: PAOK Thessaloniki (Local): 70.51%; Iraklis FC (Visit): 10.82%; Draw: 18.67%. For Iraklis FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.24. 15 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.59%.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.42%EV -9.04%E -7.01%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.90%EV +13.59%E +1.29%K +1.43%G +0.194% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -6.64%E -1.33%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-18 17:53 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.14%EV -10.45%E -8.23%K -38.72%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.16%EV +8.18%E +0.818%K +0.909%G +0.074% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.70%EV -8.50%E -1.74%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-18 17:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.59%EV -6.22%E -4.68%K -18.86%G +0.000% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 9.92%EV +3.85%E +0.401%K +0.448%G +0.017% | 5.15I 19.42%NM 18.49%EV -3.83%E -0.744%K -0.924%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-18 17:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.34%EV -6.93%E -5.25%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 9.57I 10.45%NM 9.98%EV +3.53%E +0.368%K +0.411%G +0.015% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.68%EV +0.834%E +0.154%K +0.190%G +0.002% | 4.7% | 2026-10-18 17:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -9.04%E -7.01%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +2.77%E +0.291%K +0.326%G +0.009% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -1.97%E -0.375%K -0.463%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-18 17:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -9.04%E -7.01%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +2.77%E +0.291%K +0.326%G +0.009% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -1.97%E -0.375%K -0.463%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-18 17:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -9.04%E -7.01%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +2.77%E +0.291%K +0.326%G +0.009% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -1.97%E -0.375%K -0.463%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-18 17:29 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -9.04%E -7.01%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +2.77%E +0.291%K +0.326%G +0.009% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -1.97%E -0.375%K -0.463%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-18 17:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -9.04%E -7.01%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +2.77%E +0.291%K +0.326%G +0.009% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -1.97%E -0.375%K -0.463%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-18 17:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -9.04%E -7.01%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +2.77%E +0.291%K +0.326%G +0.009% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -1.97%E -0.375%K -0.463%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-18 17:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -9.04%E -7.01%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +2.77%E +0.291%K +0.326%G +0.009% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -1.97%E -0.375%K -0.463%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-18 17:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -9.04%E -7.01%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +2.77%E +0.291%K +0.326%G +0.009% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -1.97%E -0.375%K -0.463%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-18 17:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.89%EV -11.86%E -9.49%K -47.45%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.59%EV +2.77%E +0.291%K +0.326%G +0.009% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.52%EV -2.90%E -0.558%K -0.691%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-18 17:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.70%EV -11.86%E -9.49%K -47.45%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.43%EV +2.77%E +0.291%K +0.326%G +0.009% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.87%EV -11.30%E -2.38%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-10-18 17:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.70%EV -11.86%E -9.49%K -47.45%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.43%EV +2.77%E +0.291%K +0.326%G +0.009% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.87%EV -11.30%E -2.38%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 11.6% | 2026-10-18 17:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.18%EV -6.22%E -4.68%K -18.86%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -2.64%E -0.293%K -0.330%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.45%EV -10.37%E -2.16%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-18 17:52 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.18%EV -6.22%E -4.68%K -18.86%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -2.64%E -0.293%K -0.330%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.45%EV -10.37%E -2.16%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-10-18 17:52 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.66%EV -8.34%E -6.41%K -27.79%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.21%EV -2.64%E -0.293%K -0.330%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.14%EV -10.37%E -2.16%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-18 13:24 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.66%EV -8.34%E -6.41%K -27.79%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.21%EV -2.64%E -0.293%K -0.330%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.14%EV -10.37%E -2.16%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-18 13:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.66%EV -8.34%E -6.41%K -27.79%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.21%EV -2.64%E -0.293%K -0.330%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.14%EV -10.37%E -2.16%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-18 13:24 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.66%EV -8.34%E -6.41%K -27.79%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.21%EV -2.64%E -0.293%K -0.330%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.14%EV -10.37%E -2.16%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-18 13:24 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.52%EV -8.34%E -6.41%K -27.79%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.19%EV -2.64%E -0.293%K -0.330%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.30%EV -11.30%E -2.38%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-10-18 17:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.87%EV -8.34%E -6.41%K -27.79%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.38%EV -5.35%E -0.611%K -0.690%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -14.10%E -3.07%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-18 17:14 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.55%EV -6.93%E -5.25%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 10.83%EV -6.97%E -0.810%K -0.917%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -6.64%E -1.33%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-18 17:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.55%EV -6.93%E -5.25%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 10.83%EV -6.97%E -0.810%K -0.917%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -6.64%E -1.33%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-18 17:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.14%EV -5.52%E -4.12%K -16.23%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.06%EV -8.05%E -0.947%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -6.64%E -1.33%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-18 17:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.14%EV -5.52%E -4.12%K -16.23%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.06%EV -8.05%E -0.947%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -6.64%E -1.33%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-18 17:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -6.22%E -4.68%K -18.86%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -8.05%E -0.947%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -6.64%E -1.33%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-18 12:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -8.34%E -6.41%K -27.79%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -8.05%E -0.947%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -6.64%E -1.33%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-18 17:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.52%EV -9.04%E -7.01%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.55%EV -8.05%E -0.947%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.93%EV -15.97%E -3.55%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-18 17:14 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 71.48%EV -12.57%E -10.14%K -52.37%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.43%EV -8.05%E -0.947%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.09%EV -8.50%E -1.74%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-10-18 17:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 71.48%EV -12.57%E -10.14%K -52.37%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.43%EV -8.05%E -0.947%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.09%EV -8.50%E -1.74%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-10-18 17:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 71.48%EV -12.57%E -10.14%K -52.37%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.43%EV -8.05%E -0.947%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.09%EV -8.50%E -1.74%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-10-18 17:29 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 71.61%EV -15.39%E -12.82%K -76.94%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.11%EV -8.05%E -0.947%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.28%EV -12.24%E -2.60%K -3.31%G +0.000% | 16.4% | 2026-10-18 17:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.37%EV -6.93%E -5.25%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.06%EV -9.13%E -1.09%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.58%EV -6.64%E -1.33%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-10-18 12:49 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.30%EV -7.63%E -5.83%K -24.62%G +0.000% | 8.30I 12.05%NM 11.10%EV -10.21%E -1.23%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 18.60%EV -7.57%E -1.53%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-18 12:49 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.72%EV -6.93%E -5.25%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -13.46%E -1.68%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV -8.50%E -1.74%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-18 17:49 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.72%EV -6.93%E -5.25%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -13.46%E -1.68%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV -8.50%E -1.74%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-18 17:49 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.57%EV -8.34%E -6.41%K -27.79%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.59%EV -15.62%E -2.00%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.84%EV -10.37%E -2.16%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-10-18 12:50 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 70.20%EV -11.86%E -9.49%K -47.45%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.32%EV -16.16%E -2.09%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 18.47%EV -11.30%E -2.38%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-10-18 17:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.02%EV -8.34%E -6.41%K -27.79%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.14%EV -18.87%E -2.52%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.85%EV -4.77%E -0.935%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-10-18 12:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.68%EV -8.34%E -6.41%K -27.79%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -18.87%E -2.52%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -14.10%E -3.07%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-18 17:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.68%EV -8.34%E -6.41%K -27.79%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -18.87%E -2.52%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -14.10%E -3.07%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-18 17:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.68%EV -8.34%E -6.41%K -27.79%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -18.87%E -2.52%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -14.10%E -3.07%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-18 17:34 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.68%EV -8.34%E -6.41%K -27.79%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.91%EV -18.87%E -2.52%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -14.10%E -3.07%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-18 17:34 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.39%EV -8.34%E -6.41%K -27.79%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -18.87%E -2.52%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.76%EV -15.97%E -3.55%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-10-18 17:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 69.23%EV -11.86%E -9.49%K -47.45%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.54%EV -18.87%E -2.52%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.23%EV -15.97%E -3.55%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 15.6% | 2026-10-18 17:39 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 70.03%EV -13.98%E -11.46%K -63.54%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.39%EV -18.87%E -2.52%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 18.57%EV -14.10%E -3.07%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 17.0% | 2026-10-18 17:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.76%EV -4.11%E -3.02%K -11.41%G +0.000% | 7.48I 13.37%NM 12.50%EV -19.08%E -2.55%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 4.99I 20.04%NM 18.74%EV -6.82%E -1.37%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-10-18 17:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.64%EV -9.04%E -7.01%K -31.18%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.39%EV -21.57%E -2.98%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.97%EV -6.64%E -1.33%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-18 12:49 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 69.45%EV -14.68%E -12.14%K -69.92%G +0.000% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 11.67%EV -22.11%E -3.07%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 18.88%EV -16.91%E -3.80%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 19.0% | 2026-10-18 17:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.64% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.28% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.08% | 0.6% | 2026-10-18 17:54 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.30% | 11.11I 9.00%NM 8.91% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.80% | 1.1% | 2026-10-18 15:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.09% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.97% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.94% | 1.3% | 2026-10-18 17:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.09% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.97% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.94% | 1.3% | 2026-10-18 17:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.66% | 11.49I 8.70%NM 8.53% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.81% | 2.1% | 2026-10-18 17:55 |