The School of Odds
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PAOK Thessaloniki v Asteras Tripolis

Kickoff: 2026-11-01 17:00 UTC

Final: PAOK Thessaloniki 2–1 Asteras Tripolis

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

52 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

PAOK Thessaloniki (Local)

Prediction 71.47%1.40fair odd
EV -4.94%
Edge -3.71%
Kelly -14.97%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.98%71.50%71.54%73.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.281.301.3383.33%77.82%76.92%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Asteras Tripolis (Visit)

Prediction 10.86%9.21fair odd
EV +8.62%
Edge +0.862%
Kelly +0.958%
Growth +0.083%

assuming max odds 10.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.51%10.73%10.88%12.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.758.508.5010.0014.81%11.77%11.76%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.66%5.66fair odd
EV -1.79%
Edge -0.322%
Kelly -0.393%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.16%17.77%17.58%19.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.065.055.5622.22%19.75%19.80%17.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: PAOK Thessaloniki (Local): 71.47%; Asteras Tripolis (Visit): 10.86%; Draw: 17.66%. For Asteras Tripolis (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.21. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.62%.

Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.19%EV -7.08%E -5.45%K -23.61%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.51%EV +8.62%E +0.862%K +0.958%G +0.083%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.30%EV -2.85%E -0.518%K -0.633%G +0.000%5.1%2026-11-01 16:19
Pinnacle🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.75%EV -5.65%E -4.28%K -17.67%G +0.000%9.62I 10.40%NM 9.98%EV +4.50%E +0.467%K +0.522%G +0.023%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.27%EV -1.79%E -0.322%K -0.393%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-01 16:55
Casumo🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.85%EV -7.08%E -5.45%K -23.61%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +3.19%E +0.336%K +0.376%G +0.012%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.32%EV -9.92%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-01 16:15
Unibet (NL)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.85%EV -7.08%E -5.45%K -23.61%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +3.19%E +0.336%K +0.376%G +0.012%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.32%EV -9.92%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-01 16:15
Grosvenor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.85%EV -7.08%E -5.45%K -23.61%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +3.19%E +0.336%K +0.376%G +0.012%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.32%EV -9.92%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-01 16:15
TABtouch🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.85%EV -7.08%E -5.45%K -23.61%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +3.19%E +0.336%K +0.376%G +0.012%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.32%EV -9.92%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-01 16:15
Unibet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.85%EV -7.08%E -5.45%K -23.61%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +3.19%E +0.336%K +0.376%G +0.012%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.32%EV -9.92%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-01 16:15
Unibet (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.85%EV -7.08%E -5.45%K -23.61%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +3.19%E +0.336%K +0.376%G +0.012%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.32%EV -9.92%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-01 16:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.85%EV -7.08%E -5.45%K -23.61%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +3.19%E +0.336%K +0.376%G +0.012%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.32%EV -9.92%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-01 16:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.85%EV -7.08%E -5.45%K -23.61%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +3.19%E +0.336%K +0.376%G +0.012%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.32%EV -9.92%E -1.94%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-01 16:15
betano_uk🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -7.80%E -6.05%K -26.89%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +3.19%E +0.336%K +0.376%G +0.012%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -7.27%E -1.38%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-01 16:40
Bet Victor🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.38%EV -7.80%E -6.05%K -26.89%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.83%EV +3.19%E +0.336%K +0.376%G +0.012%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.79%EV -7.27%E -1.38%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-01 16:40
DraftKings🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.27%EV -6.37%E -4.86%K -20.55%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.52%EV -2.24%E -0.249%K -0.280%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.21%EV -2.85%E -0.518%K -0.633%G +0.000%5.6%2026-11-01 16:40
Bet Right🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.52%EV -8.51%E -6.65%K -30.40%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.17%EV -2.24%E -0.249%K -0.280%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.31%EV -11.68%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.2%2026-11-01 16:20
Tipico (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.74%EV -10.66%E -8.53%K -42.63%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.10%EV -2.24%E -0.249%K -0.280%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.16%EV -6.38%E -1.20%K -1.48%G +0.000%10.0%2026-11-01 16:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.21%EV -9.23%E -7.27%K -34.18%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.34%EV -4.95%E -0.566%K -0.639%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.46%EV -13.45%E -2.74%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.6%2026-11-01 16:20
Betsson🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.53%EV -5.65%E -4.28%K -17.67%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.98%EV -6.58%E -0.765%K -0.866%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.49%EV -4.62%E -0.855%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.9%2026-11-01 16:40
BetMGM🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.30%EV -4.94%E -3.71%K -14.97%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.00%EV -7.67%E -0.902%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -11.68%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-01 16:36
Unibet (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.40%EV -7.08%E -5.45%K -23.61%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.92%EV -7.67%E -0.902%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.68%EV -7.27%E -1.38%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-01 16:40
FanDuel🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.68%EV -7.80%E -6.05%K -26.89%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.88%EV -7.67%E -0.902%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.45%EV -6.38%E -1.20%K -1.48%G +0.000%8.2%2026-11-01 16:50
Fanatics🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.56%EV -7.80%E -6.05%K -26.89%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -7.67%E -0.902%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -7.27%E -1.38%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-01 04:40
Betway🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.56%EV -7.80%E -6.05%K -26.89%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -7.67%E -0.902%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.58%EV -7.27%E -1.38%K -1.71%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-01 16:35
888sport🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -7.08%E -5.45%K -23.61%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -7.67%E -0.902%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -11.68%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-01 16:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -7.08%E -5.45%K -23.61%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -7.67%E -0.902%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -11.68%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-01 16:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -7.08%E -5.45%K -23.61%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -7.67%E -0.902%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -11.68%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-01 16:50
William Hill🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.77%EV -7.08%E -5.45%K -23.61%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.82%EV -7.67%E -0.902%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.40%EV -11.68%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-01 16:55
SportsBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.60%EV -8.51%E -6.65%K -30.40%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.78%EV -7.67%E -0.902%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.62%EV -8.15%E -1.57%K -1.94%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 16:36
betfred_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.58%EV -10.66%E -8.53%K -42.63%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.53%EV -7.67%E -0.902%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.89%EV -11.68%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%11.8%2026-11-01 16:50
LiveScore Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.05%EV -10.66%E -8.53%K -42.63%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.45%EV -7.67%E -0.902%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.50%EV -15.21%E -3.17%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.6%2026-11-01 16:15
Virgin Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.05%EV -10.66%E -8.53%K -42.63%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.45%EV -7.67%E -0.902%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.50%EV -15.21%E -3.17%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.6%2026-11-01 16:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.05%EV -10.66%E -8.53%K -42.63%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.45%EV -7.67%E -0.902%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.50%EV -15.21%E -3.17%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.6%2026-11-01 16:15
PMU (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 71.15%EV -13.52%E -11.17%K -64.36%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.13%EV -7.67%E -0.902%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.72%EV -18.75%E -4.08%K -5.21%G +0.000%16.1%2026-11-01 16:15
1xBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.45%EV -6.37%E -4.86%K -20.55%G +0.000%8.34I 11.99%NM 11.22%EV -9.41%E -1.13%K -1.28%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.33%EV -4.62%E -0.855%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-01 16:55
NordicBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.97%EV -7.08%E -5.45%K -23.61%G +0.000%8.30I 12.05%NM 11.12%EV -9.84%E -1.19%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.91%EV -9.03%E -1.75%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-01 16:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.47%EV -7.08%E -5.45%K -23.61%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.33%EV -10.93%E -1.33%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.20%EV -4.62%E -0.855%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-01 16:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.47%EV -7.08%E -5.45%K -23.61%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.33%EV -10.93%E -1.33%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.20%EV -4.62%E -0.855%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-01 16:50
BetUS🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.47%EV -7.08%E -5.45%K -23.61%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.33%EV -10.93%E -1.33%K -1.52%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.20%EV -4.62%E -0.855%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-01 16:49
Bovada🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.30%EV -7.08%E -5.45%K -23.61%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.42%EV -13.10%E -1.64%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.28%EV -11.68%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-01 16:53
Codere (IT)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.46%EV -7.80%E -6.05%K -26.89%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.36%EV -13.10%E -1.64%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.18%EV -11.68%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%10.0%2026-11-01 16:40
BoyleSports🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.79%EV -7.80%E -6.05%K -26.89%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.25%EV -13.10%E -1.64%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.95%EV -16.10%E -3.39%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.1%2026-11-01 16:55
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -10.66%E -8.53%K -42.63%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -13.10%E -1.64%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -11.68%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%12.5%2026-11-01 16:36
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.11%EV -10.66%E -8.53%K -42.63%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -13.10%E -1.64%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.78%EV -11.68%E -2.34%K -2.92%G +0.000%12.5%2026-11-01 16:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 70.92%EV -12.09%E -9.83%K -52.55%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 10.90%EV -13.10%E -1.64%K -1.87%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.17%EV -15.21%E -3.17%K -4.00%G +0.000%14.6%2026-11-01 16:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 70.77%EV -11.37%E -9.17%K -47.38%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.32%EV -15.82%E -2.04%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.91%EV -13.45%E -2.74%K -3.45%G +0.000%14.0%2026-11-01 16:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.65%EV -7.80%E -6.05%K -26.89%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.15%EV -18.53%E -2.47%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.20%EV -6.38%E -1.20%K -1.48%G +0.000%9.7%2026-11-01 16:40
Neds🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.24%EV -7.08%E -5.45%K -23.61%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -18.53%E -2.47%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -15.21%E -3.17%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.1%2026-11-01 16:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.24%EV -7.08%E -5.45%K -23.61%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -18.53%E -2.47%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -15.21%E -3.17%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.1%2026-11-01 16:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.24%EV -7.08%E -5.45%K -23.61%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -18.53%E -2.47%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -15.21%E -3.17%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.1%2026-11-01 16:35
Coral🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.24%EV -7.08%E -5.45%K -23.61%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -18.53%E -2.47%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -15.21%E -3.17%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.1%2026-11-01 16:36
Unibet (FR)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 70.05%EV -14.23%E -11.86%K -71.16%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 11.68%EV -21.79%E -3.03%K -3.51%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 18.27%EV -18.75%E -4.08%K -5.21%G +0.000%19.0%2026-11-01 16:40
Sky Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 67.98%EV -7.80%E -6.05%K -26.89%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.53%EV -23.96%E -3.42%K -3.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.49%EV -20.51%E -4.56%K -5.86%G +0.000%14.0%2026-11-01 16:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 69.01%EV -9.94%E -7.89%K -38.24%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.88%EV -26.68%E -3.95%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.11%EV -15.21%E -3.17%K -4.00%G +0.000%15.0%2026-11-01 16:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 73.31%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.50%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.19%0.3%2026-11-01 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 73.31%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.50%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.19%0.3%2026-11-01 16:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 73.31%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.50%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.19%0.3%2026-11-01 16:55
Kalshi◎1.35I 74.07%NM 73.28%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.89%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.82%1.1%2026-11-01 16:30
Smarkets◎1.34I 74.63%NM 73.60%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.39%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.00%1.4%2026-11-01 16:55

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