The School of Odds
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PAOK Thessaloniki v AE Kifisia FC

2026-11-22 17:30 UTC — Super League - Greece

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

PAOK Thessaloniki (Local)

Prediction 66.16%1.51fair odd
EV -4.73%
Edge -3.29%
Kelly -10.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.45%66.30%66.16%67.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.391.401.4476.92%72.04%71.43%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AE Kifisia FC (Visit)

Prediction 14.20%7.04fair odd
EV -4.89%
Edge -0.730%
Kelly -0.858%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.59%14.15%14.20%16.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.306.066.306.7018.87%16.49%15.87%14.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.65%5.09fair odd
EV -5.70%
Edge -1.19%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.97%19.54%19.65%20.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.484.554.8025.32%22.34%21.98%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: PAOK Thessaloniki (Local): 66.16%; AE Kifisia FC (Visit): 14.20%; Draw: 19.65%. For PAOK Thessaloniki (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.51. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.44, with an expected value of -4.73%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.89%EV -4.73%E -3.29%K -10.75%G +0.000%6.41I 15.60%NM 14.58%EV -9.01%E -1.41%K -1.66%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.54%EV -10.61%E -2.33%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-09 11:40
Pinnacle🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.10%EV -5.39%E -3.77%K -12.54%G +0.000%6.69I 14.95%NM 14.13%EV -5.03%E -0.752%K -0.884%G +0.000%4.78I 20.92%NM 19.77%EV -6.09%E -1.27%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-09 08:20
Betsson🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.46%EV -5.39%E -3.77%K -12.54%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.63%EV -9.15%E -1.43%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -7.67%E -1.63%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-09 02:55
Bovada🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 63.97%EV -5.39%E -3.77%K -12.54%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -14.83%E -2.47%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.79%EV -13.56%E -3.08%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-09 11:44
NordicBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.04%EV -6.05%E -4.26%K -14.42%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 14.66%EV -10.57%E -1.68%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.30%EV -10.61%E -2.33%K -2.99%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-09 02:54
Fanatics🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -7.38%E -5.27%K -18.44%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -7.73%E -1.19%K -1.41%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -6.68%E -1.41%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.9%2026-11-08 23:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 64.08%EV -9.36%E -6.83%K -25.30%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 15.96%EV -21.92%E -3.99%K -4.87%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.95%EV -13.56%E -3.08%K -3.99%G +0.000%13.9%2026-11-09 02:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.44%EV -10.69%E -7.92%K -30.53%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.59%EV -4.89%E -0.730%K -0.858%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.97%EV -5.70%E -1.19%K -1.50%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-08 23:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 63.84%EV -10.69%E -7.92%K -30.53%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.39%EV -20.50%E -3.66%K -4.46%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 20.77%EV -18.47%E -4.45%K -5.86%G +0.000%16.0%2026-11-09 02:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 63.45%EV -10.69%E -7.92%K -30.53%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.16%EV -24.76%E -4.67%K -5.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.39%EV -17.49%E -4.16%K -5.47%G +0.000%16.8%2026-11-09 02:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 63.52%EV -13.99%E -10.76%K -46.65%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 15.58%EV -24.76%E -4.67%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 20.90%EV -22.40%E -5.67%K -7.59%G +0.000%21.1%2026-11-09 02:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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