The School of Odds
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Panetolikos Agrinio v Asteras Tripolis

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Panetolikos Agrinio (Local)

Prediction 36.51%2.74fair odd
EV -5.06%
Edge -1.95%
Kelly -3.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.87%36.55%36.55%37.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.332.492.502.6042.92%40.24%40.00%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Asteras Tripolis (Visit)

Prediction 33.44%2.99fair odd
EV -4.69%
Edge -1.64%
Kelly -2.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.92%33.45%33.34%34.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.692.702.8539.22%37.13%37.04%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.04%3.33fair odd
EV -5.37%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -2.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.45%30.00%30.11%30.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.873.023.003.1534.84%33.15%33.33%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Panetolikos Agrinio (Local): 36.51%; Asteras Tripolis (Visit): 33.44%; Draw: 30.04%. For Asteras Tripolis (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.99. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.85, with an expected value of -4.69%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.53%EV -5.06%E -1.95%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.32%EV -4.69%E -1.64%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.15%EV -5.37%E -1.70%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-28 23:14
1xBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.89%EV -5.06%E -1.95%K -3.17%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 33.81%EV -7.70%E -2.79%K -4.37%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.30%EV -7.47%E -2.42%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-29 07:35
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.59%EV -6.89%E -2.70%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -6.36%E -2.27%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -6.87%E -2.22%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-21 11:35
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.59%EV -6.89%E -2.70%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.32%EV -6.36%E -2.27%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.09%EV -6.87%E -2.22%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-21 11:35
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -6.89%E -2.70%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -8.03%E -2.92%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -6.87%E -2.22%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.8%2026-07-21 11:33
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.01%EV -6.89%E -2.70%K -4.45%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.39%EV -8.03%E -2.92%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.61%EV -9.87%E -3.29%K -4.94%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-27 18:50
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.60%EV -8.72%E -3.49%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -9.70%E -3.59%K -5.71%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.51%EV -6.87%E -2.22%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.3%2026-07-21 11:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.72%E -3.49%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -8.03%E -2.92%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -9.87%E -3.29%K -4.94%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-21 11:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.92%EV -8.72%E -3.49%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.15%EV -12.04%E -4.58%K -7.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -9.87%E -3.29%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-27 01:55
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -8.72%E -3.49%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -12.38%E -4.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -9.87%E -3.29%K -4.94%G +0.000%11.5%2026-07-21 17:44
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.82%EV -12.37%E -5.15%K -8.83%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.73%EV -12.38%E -4.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.45%EV -9.87%E -3.29%K -4.94%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-25 15:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.54%EV -12.37%E -5.15%K -8.83%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.73%EV -13.05%E -5.02%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.73%EV -11.37%E -3.86%K -5.83%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-27 16:50
Sky Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.35%EV -12.37%E -5.15%K -8.83%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.56%EV -13.05%E -5.02%K -8.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.09%EV -12.88%E -4.44%K -6.78%G +0.000%14.6%2026-07-21 11:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 36.60%EV -14.19%E -6.04%K -10.51%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 33.73%EV -14.72%E -5.77%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.66%EV -12.88%E -4.44%K -6.78%G +0.000%16.3%2026-07-27 16:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 37.02%EV -14.92%E -6.40%K -11.22%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 32.92%EV -12.38%E -4.72%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.06%EV -13.78%E -4.80%K -7.37%G +0.000%15.9%2026-07-23 20:38
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-07-26 09:51
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-07-26 09:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-07-26 09:50