The School of Odds
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Levadiakos v Aris Thessaloniki

Kickoff: 2026-11-01 15:00 UTC

Final: Levadiakos 3–0 Aris Thessaloniki

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

52 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Levadiakos (Local)

Prediction 30.02%3.33fair odd
EV -0.919%
Edge -0.278%
Kelly -0.399%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.05%29.90%30.00%31.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.083.103.3035.71%32.47%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Aris Thessaloniki (Visit)

Prediction 39.29%2.55fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -0.869%
Kelly -1.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.06%39.43%39.30%41.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.042.292.302.4949.02%43.64%43.48%40.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.68%3.26fair odd
EV -0.278%
Edge -0.086%
Kelly -0.124%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.39%30.66%30.70%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.003.003.2537.04%33.31%33.33%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Levadiakos (Local): 30.02%; Aris Thessaloniki (Visit): 39.29%; Draw: 30.68%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.26. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.25, with an expected value of -0.278%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (52 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -0.919%E -0.278%K -0.399%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -12.38%E -5.55%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -3.35%E -1.06%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 14:50
Grosvenor🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -0.919%E -0.278%K -0.399%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -12.38%E -5.55%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -3.35%E -1.06%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 14:50
Unibet (NL)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -0.919%E -0.278%K -0.399%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -12.38%E -5.55%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -3.35%E -1.06%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 14:50
TABtouch🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -0.919%E -0.278%K -0.399%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -12.38%E -5.55%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -3.35%E -1.06%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 14:50
Casumo🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -0.919%E -0.278%K -0.399%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -12.38%E -5.55%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -3.35%E -1.06%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 14:50
Unibet (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -0.919%E -0.278%K -0.399%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -12.38%E -5.55%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -3.35%E -1.06%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 14:50
Svenska Spel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -0.919%E -0.278%K -0.399%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -12.38%E -5.55%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -3.35%E -1.06%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 14:50
ATG (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.35%EV -0.919%E -0.278%K -0.399%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.95%EV -12.38%E -5.55%K -10.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.70%EV -3.35%E -1.06%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 14:50
Pinnacle🎯3.22I 31.06%NM 29.98%EV -3.32%E -1.03%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.77%EV -2.16%E -0.869%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 31.24%EV -5.19%E -1.68%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.6%2026-11-01 14:55
FanDuel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.26%EV -3.92%E -1.23%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.01%EV -5.70%E -2.37%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -9.48%E -3.21%K -4.86%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-01 14:49
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.51%EV -3.92%E -1.23%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.55%EV -11.59%E -5.15%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -9.48%E -3.21%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.6%2026-11-01 14:50
DraftKings🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.13%EV -5.42%E -1.72%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.74%EV -3.74%E -1.52%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.12%EV -6.42%E -2.10%K -3.13%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-01 14:40
BetOnline.ag🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.87%EV -5.42%E -1.72%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.56%EV -4.13%E -1.69%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.57%EV -8.56%E -2.87%K -4.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-01 14:55
LowVig.ag🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.87%EV -5.42%E -1.72%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.56%EV -4.13%E -1.69%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.57%EV -8.56%E -2.87%K -4.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-11-01 14:55
SportsBet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -5.42%E -1.72%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.12%EV -7.66%E -3.26%K -5.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -11.02%E -3.80%K -5.80%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-01 14:40
LiveScore Bet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.14%EV -5.42%E -1.72%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 41.81%EV -16.70%E -7.88%K -14.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.05%EV -9.48%E -3.21%K -4.86%G +0.000%12.8%2026-11-01 14:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.14%EV -5.42%E -1.72%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 41.81%EV -16.70%E -7.88%K -14.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.05%EV -9.48%E -3.21%K -4.86%G +0.000%12.8%2026-11-01 14:50
Virgin Bet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 28.14%EV -5.42%E -1.72%K -2.52%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 41.81%EV -16.70%E -7.88%K -14.91%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.05%EV -9.48%E -3.21%K -4.86%G +0.000%12.8%2026-11-01 14:50
Coolbet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.81%EV -6.92%E -2.23%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.80%EV -5.70%E -2.37%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.39%EV -0.278%E -0.086%K -0.124%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-01 14:48
Betsson🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -6.92%E -2.23%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.70%E -2.37%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -4.88%E -1.57%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 14:40
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -6.92%E -2.23%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.44%EV -6.49%E -2.73%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%EV -4.88%E -1.57%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-01 14:40
Bet Victor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -6.92%E -2.23%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -6.49%E -2.73%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -7.95%E -2.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-01 14:48
betano_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.98%EV -6.92%E -2.23%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.05%EV -6.49%E -2.73%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.98%EV -7.95%E -2.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-01 14:48
BetMGM🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -6.92%E -2.23%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -9.63%E -4.19%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -4.88%E -1.57%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-01 14:39
Fanatics🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.83%EV -6.92%E -2.23%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.35%EV -7.66%E -3.26%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -7.95%E -2.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-01 14:50
Paddy Power🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -6.92%E -2.23%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -9.63%E -4.19%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -14.09%E -5.03%K -7.83%G +0.000%11.5%2026-11-01 14:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -6.92%E -2.23%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -9.63%E -4.19%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -14.09%E -5.03%K -7.83%G +0.000%11.5%2026-11-01 14:50
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -6.92%E -2.23%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -15.52%E -7.22%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -11.02%E -3.80%K -5.80%G +0.000%13.3%2026-11-01 14:50
1xBet🎯3.06I 32.68%NM 30.63%EV -8.12%E -2.66%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.73%EV -4.91%E -2.03%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.63%EV -6.11%E -2.00%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-01 14:55
NordicBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.17%EV -8.42%E -2.76%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.16%EV -7.66%E -3.26%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -7.95%E -2.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-01 14:50
PMU (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 28.05%EV -8.42%E -2.76%K -4.11%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 41.94%EV -19.84%E -9.73%K -19.08%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.02%EV -12.55%E -4.40%K -6.78%G +0.000%16.9%2026-11-01 14:50
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -9.93%E -3.31%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -6.49%E -2.73%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.67%EV -7.95%E -2.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-01 14:50
Bet Right🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.93%E -3.31%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -9.63%E -4.19%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -4.88%E -1.57%K -2.32%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-01 14:50
Bovada🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.52%EV -9.93%E -3.31%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -7.66%E -3.26%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.52%EV -7.95%E -2.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-11-01 14:53
BetUS🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.52%EV -9.93%E -3.31%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -7.66%E -3.26%K -5.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.52%EV -7.95%E -2.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.2%2026-11-01 14:55
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -9.93%E -3.31%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -5.70%E -2.37%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -11.02%E -3.80%K -5.80%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-01 14:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -9.93%E -3.31%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -5.70%E -2.37%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -11.02%E -3.80%K -5.80%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-01 14:50
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -9.93%E -3.31%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -5.70%E -2.37%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -11.02%E -3.80%K -5.80%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-01 14:50
William Hill🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -9.93%E -3.31%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -5.70%E -2.37%K -4.07%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -11.02%E -3.80%K -5.80%G +0.000%9.5%2026-11-01 14:50
Codere (IT)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.37%EV -9.93%E -3.31%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.27%EV -8.84%E -3.81%K -6.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.37%EV -7.95%E -2.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%9.8%2026-11-01 14:50
Sky Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.03%EV -9.93%E -3.31%K -4.96%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.71%EV -11.59%E -5.15%K -9.27%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.26%EV -17.15%E -6.35%K -10.09%G +0.000%14.8%2026-11-01 14:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.97I 33.67%NM 29.57%EV -10.83%E -3.65%K -5.50%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.85%EV -15.52%E -7.22%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 29.57%EV -8.87%E -2.99%K -4.50%G +0.000%13.9%2026-11-01 14:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.92%EV -11.43%E -3.87%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.66%EV -9.63%E -4.19%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -4.88%E -1.57%K -2.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-11-01 14:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.77%EV -11.43%E -3.87%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -9.63%E -4.19%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.76%EV -6.42%E -2.10%K -3.13%G +0.000%10.2%2026-11-01 14:50
NetBet (FR)🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 29.90%EV -12.33%E -4.22%K -6.42%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.68%EV -13.56%E -6.16%K -11.30%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.42%EV -11.94%E -4.16%K -6.38%G +0.000%14.5%2026-11-01 14:50
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.93%E -4.46%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -11.59%E -5.15%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -7.95%E -2.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%12.3%2026-11-01 14:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.93%E -4.46%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -11.59%E -5.15%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -7.95%E -2.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%12.3%2026-11-01 14:40
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.93%E -4.46%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -11.59%E -5.15%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -7.95%E -2.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%12.3%2026-11-01 14:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -12.93%E -4.46%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -11.59%E -5.15%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -7.95%E -2.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%12.3%2026-11-01 14:40
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.86%EV -13.53%E -4.70%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.51%EV -11.59%E -5.15%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.63%EV -7.95%E -2.65%K -3.97%G +0.000%12.5%2026-11-01 14:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 29.50%EV -14.43%E -5.06%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 41.01%EV -19.45%E -9.49%K -18.53%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 29.50%EV -12.55%E -4.40%K -6.78%G +0.000%19.0%2026-11-01 14:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.04%EV -15.93%E -5.69%K -8.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.50%EV -13.56%E -6.16%K -11.30%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.46%EV -9.48%E -3.21%K -4.86%G +0.000%15.1%2026-11-01 14:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.78%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.7%2026-11-01 14:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.78%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.7%2026-11-01 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.78%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.7%2026-11-01 14:55
Smarkets◎3.40I 29.41%NM 29.20%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.78%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.7%2026-11-01 14:55
Kalshi◎3.33I 30.03%NM 29.42%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.18%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.40%2.1%2026-11-01 14:50

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