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Atromitos Athens v PAOK Thessaloniki

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atromitos Athens (Local)

Prediction 15.99%6.25fair odd
EV -4.07%
Edge -0.678%
Kelly -0.814%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.85%15.99%15.99%17.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.575.606.0020.00%17.96%17.86%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

PAOK Thessaloniki (Visit)

Prediction 59.57%1.68fair odd
EV -4.70%
Edge -2.93%
Kelly -7.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.85%59.57%59.57%59.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.551.541.6066.67%64.59%64.72%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.45%4.09fair odd
EV -5.88%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -2.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.19%24.45%24.45%24.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.743.773.8528.57%26.73%26.49%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atromitos Athens (Local): 15.99%; PAOK Thessaloniki (Visit): 59.57%; Draw: 24.45%. For Atromitos Athens (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.25. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 6.00, with an expected value of -4.07%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -4.07%E -0.678%K -0.814%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.44%EV -4.70%E -2.93%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.70%EV -5.88%E -1.53%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-21 21:49
SportsBet🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 16.19%EV -8.86%E -1.56%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.53%EV -7.67%E -4.95%K -13.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -7.10%E -1.87%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-21 21:44
FanDuel🎯5.70I 17.54%NM 16.13%EV -8.86%E -1.56%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.69%EV -8.27%E -5.37%K -15.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -7.10%E -1.87%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-21 21:44
betfred_uk🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -12.06%E -2.19%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%EV -6.48%E -4.13%K -11.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.57%EV -8.33%E -2.22%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-21 21:44
Paddy Power🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.50%EV -12.06%E -2.19%K -2.68%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 59.31%EV -8.87%E -5.79%K -16.73%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.20%EV -8.33%E -2.22%K -3.03%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-21 21:49
Sky Bet🎯5.00I 20.00%NM 17.36%EV -20.06%E -4.01%K -5.01%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 57.85%EV -10.65%E -7.10%K -21.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.79%EV -14.44%E -4.13%K -5.78%G +0.000%15.2%2026-08-21 21:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.