The School of Odds
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Atromitos Athens v AEK Athens

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atromitos Athens (Local)

Prediction 12.66%7.90fair odd
EV +4.41%
Edge +0.535%
Kelly +0.608%
Growth +0.027%

assuming max odds 8.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.42%12.79%12.40%14.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.007.177.138.2516.67%13.94%14.04%12.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AEK Athens (Visit)

Prediction 66.32%1.51fair odd
EV -2.51%
Edge -1.71%
Kelly -5.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.10%65.90%66.45%67.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.381.381.4777.52%72.42%72.46%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.02%4.76fair odd
EV -5.40%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -1.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.32%21.30%21.14%23.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.204.304.5026.32%23.82%23.26%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Atromitos Athens (Local): 12.66%; AEK Athens (Visit): 66.32%; Draw: 21.02%. For Atromitos Athens (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.90. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.41%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯8.25I 12.12%NM 11.57%EV +4.41%E +0.535%K +0.608%G +0.027%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.22%EV -5.82%E -4.10%K -13.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.21%EV -5.40%E -1.20%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-12 04:29
Suprabets🎯8.10I 12.35%NM 11.42%EV +2.51%E +0.310%K +0.354%G +0.009%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.06%EV -8.48%E -6.14%K -22.31%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.52%EV -9.60%E -2.23%K -2.91%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-03 01:06
1xBet🎯7.80I 12.82%NM 11.98%EV -1.28%E -0.165%K -0.189%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.28%EV -6.49%E -4.60%K -15.82%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.73%EV -9.60%E -2.23%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-12 04:03
NordicBet🎯7.70I 12.99%NM 11.97%EV -2.55%E -0.331%K -0.381%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.30%EV -9.14%E -6.67%K -24.70%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.72%EV -6.45%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-20 20:54
Betsson🎯7.70I 12.99%NM 11.97%EV -2.55%E -0.331%K -0.381%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.30%EV -9.14%E -6.67%K -24.70%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.72%EV -6.45%E -1.45%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-20 20:54
FanDuel🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -5.08%E -0.677%K -0.782%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.45%EV -7.15%E -5.11%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -7.50%E -1.70%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-16 16:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -5.08%E -0.677%K -0.782%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.23%EV -7.15%E -5.11%K -17.88%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.41%EV -8.97%E -2.07%K -2.69%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-16 18:49
Bet Right🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.20%EV -5.08%E -0.677%K -0.782%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.28%EV -8.48%E -6.14%K -22.31%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.52%EV -10.65%E -2.51%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-12 04:30
betfred_uk🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.13%EV -5.08%E -0.677%K -0.782%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.87%EV -9.80%E -7.21%K -27.23%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.00%EV -8.97%E -2.07%K -2.69%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-12 04:29
Codere (IT)🎯7.40I 13.51%NM 12.25%EV -6.35%E -0.858%K -0.992%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 67.15%EV -10.47%E -7.75%K -29.91%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.60%EV -7.50%E -1.70%K -2.21%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-20 20:54
SportsBet🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.66%EV -8.24%E -1.14%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 66.01%EV -7.81%E -5.62%K -20.04%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.34%EV -9.60%E -2.23%K -2.91%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-13 23:25
Bovada🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.64%EV -8.24%E -1.14%K -1.32%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.00%EV -6.49%E -4.60%K -15.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -13.80%E -3.37%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-13 21:50
888sport🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -11.41%E -1.63%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.10%EV -4.50%E -3.12%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -20.11%E -5.29%K -7.18%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-13 23:19
888sport (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -11.41%E -1.63%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.10%EV -4.50%E -3.12%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -20.11%E -5.29%K -7.18%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-13 23:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -11.41%E -1.63%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.10%EV -4.50%E -3.12%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -20.11%E -5.29%K -7.18%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-13 23:20
William Hill🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -11.41%E -1.63%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.10%EV -4.50%E -3.12%K -10.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -20.11%E -5.29%K -7.18%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-13 23:20
Paddy Power🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.80%EV -11.41%E -1.63%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.87%EV -9.80%E -7.21%K -27.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.33%EV -11.70%E -2.79%K -3.66%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-13 23:24
NetBet (FR)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.23%EV -11.41%E -1.63%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 66.37%EV -14.45%E -11.20%K -49.81%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.40%EV -15.91%E -3.98%K -5.30%G +0.000%16.8%2026-10-12 04:08
Betclic (FR)🎯6.90I 14.49%NM 12.51%EV -12.67%E -1.84%K -2.15%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 66.42%EV -13.78%E -10.60%K -45.94%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.06%EV -13.80%E -3.37%K -4.45%G +0.000%15.8%2026-09-20 20:54
BoyleSports🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.53%EV -17.74%E -2.73%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 66.15%EV -11.79%E -8.87%K -35.74%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.32%EV -8.97%E -2.07%K -2.69%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-13 21:55
Winamax (DE)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.45%EV -17.74%E -2.73%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 66.22%EV -12.46%E -9.44%K -38.93%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.33%EV -9.60%E -2.23%K -2.91%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-20 20:54
Winamax (FR)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.32%EV -17.74%E -2.73%K -3.22%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 66.07%EV -13.12%E -10.02%K -42.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.61%EV -11.70%E -2.79%K -3.66%G +0.000%15.5%2026-09-20 20:54
Pinnacle🎯6.33I 15.80%NM 14.85%EV -19.89%E -3.14%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.94%EV -2.51%E -1.71%K -5.34%G +0.000%4.43I 22.57%NM 21.22%EV -6.87%E -1.55%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-10 17:55
Sky Bet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 14.39%EV -24.06%E -4.01%K -4.81%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 63.48%EV -9.80%E -7.21%K -27.23%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.14%EV -18.01%E -4.62%K -6.21%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-13 23:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%1.12I 89.29%NM 32.93%171.1%2026-09-28 08:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%1.12I 89.29%NM 32.93%171.1%2026-09-28 08:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 33.11%1.06I 94.34%NM 34.36%1.12I 89.29%NM 32.52%174.5%2026-10-13 12:00
Smarkets◎1.03I 97.09%NM 33.33%1.03I 97.09%NM 33.33%1.03I 97.09%NM 33.33%191.3%2026-09-28 06:40