Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atromitos Athens v AEK Athens

2026-10-17 16:30 UTC — Super League - Greece

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atromitos Athens (Local)

Prediction 11.73%8.53fair odd
EV -3.25%
Edge -0.394%
Kelly -0.448%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.20%11.69%11.74%13.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.617.958.2515.38%13.14%12.58%12.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AEK Athens (Visit)

Prediction 67.52%1.48fair odd
EV -6.82%
Edge -4.94%
Kelly -17.94%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.73%67.64%67.52%69.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.341.341.3876.92%74.56%74.63%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.75%4.82fair odd
EV -2.48%
Edge -0.528%
Kelly -0.670%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.53%20.67%20.74%21.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.054.354.314.7024.69%23.01%23.17%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Atromitos Athens (Local): 11.73%; AEK Athens (Visit): 67.52%; Draw: 20.75%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.82. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.70, with an expected value of -2.48%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯8.25I 12.12%NM 11.32%EV -3.25%E -0.394%K -0.448%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.69%EV -6.82%E -4.94%K -17.94%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.99%EV -7.67%E -1.72%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-20 17:15
SportsBet🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV -6.18%E -0.772%K -0.883%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.00%EV -10.19%E -7.66%K -30.89%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -2.48%E -0.528%K -0.670%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-20 15:39
FanDuel🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.47%EV -6.18%E -0.772%K -0.883%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.00%EV -10.19%E -7.66%K -30.89%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -2.48%E -0.528%K -0.670%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-20 15:38
888sport🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -6.18%E -0.772%K -0.883%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.94%EV -8.17%E -6.01%K -22.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -12.86%E -3.06%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 17:14
888sport (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -6.18%E -0.772%K -0.883%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.94%EV -8.17%E -6.01%K -22.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -12.86%E -3.06%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 17:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -6.18%E -0.772%K -0.883%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.94%EV -8.17%E -6.01%K -22.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -12.86%E -3.06%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 17:15
William Hill🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.38%EV -6.18%E -0.772%K -0.883%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.94%EV -8.17%E -6.01%K -22.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.68%EV -12.86%E -3.06%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-20 17:15
Paddy Power🎯8.00I 12.50%NM 11.20%EV -6.18%E -0.772%K -0.883%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 68.90%EV -12.22%E -9.40%K -40.73%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -6.63%E -1.47%K -1.89%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-20 15:39
Betsson🎯7.90I 12.66%NM 11.71%EV -7.35%E -0.931%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.51%EV -7.49%E -5.47%K -20.25%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.78%EV -7.67%E -1.72%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-20 15:15
NordicBet🎯7.80I 12.82%NM 11.84%EV -8.53%E -1.09%K -1.25%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 67.41%EV -7.49%E -5.47%K -20.25%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.75%EV -7.67%E -1.72%K -2.22%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-20 15:15
Codere (IT)🎯7.60I 13.16%NM 11.97%EV -10.87%E -1.43%K -1.65%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 67.37%EV -8.84%E -6.55%K -25.27%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.67%EV -8.71%E -1.98%K -2.56%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-20 15:15
BoyleSports🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 11.95%EV -12.04%E -1.61%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.36%EV -10.19%E -7.66%K -30.89%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.69%EV -10.16%E -2.35%K -3.05%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-20 15:44
Betclic (FR)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.33%EV -17.91%E -2.56%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 66.37%EV -12.22%E -9.40%K -40.73%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.30%EV -15.97%E -3.94%K -5.24%G +0.000%15.9%2026-09-20 15:15
Winamax (DE)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 13.02%EV -20.84%E -3.09%K -3.62%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 66.55%EV -10.87%E -8.23%K -33.96%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.43%EV -10.78%E -2.51%K -3.27%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-20 15:14
Sky Bet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.45%EV -23.77%E -3.66%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 65.73%EV -10.19%E -7.66%K -30.89%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.82%EV -12.86%E -3.06%K -4.02%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-20 15:39
Winamax (FR)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 13.32%EV -23.77%E -3.66%K -4.32%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 66.07%EV -11.54%E -8.81%K -37.24%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.61%EV -12.86%E -3.06%K -4.02%G +0.000%15.5%2026-09-20 15:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-20 16:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.33%172.7%2026-09-20 16:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%1.06I 94.34%NM 33.33%183.0%2026-09-20 16:00