The School of Odds
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Asteras Tripolis v Olympiakos Piraeus

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Asteras Tripolis (Local)

Prediction 12.61%7.93fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -0.292%
Kelly -0.335%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.32%12.61%12.61%13.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.257.047.007.7516.00%14.20%14.29%12.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Olympiakos Piraeus (Visit)

Prediction 64.73%1.54fair odd
EV -4.84%
Edge -3.29%
Kelly -10.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.00%64.73%64.73%65.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.411.401.4773.53%70.75%71.17%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.66%4.41fair odd
EV -4.84%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.16%22.66%22.66%24.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.974.004.2027.78%25.21%25.00%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Asteras Tripolis (Local): 12.61%; Olympiakos Piraeus (Visit): 64.73%; Draw: 22.66%. For Asteras Tripolis (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.93. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 7.75, with an expected value of -2.26%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯7.75I 12.90%NM 12.32%EV -2.26%E -0.292%K -0.335%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.95%EV -4.84%E -3.29%K -10.31%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -4.84%E -1.15%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-21 21:35
SportsBet🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.57%EV -8.57%E -1.18%K -1.37%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 64.64%EV -8.73%E -6.19%K -21.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.79%EV -9.37%E -2.34%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-21 21:34
betfred_uk🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.14%EV -11.72%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 63.87%EV -6.79%E -4.71%K -15.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -9.37%E -2.34%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-21 21:34
FanDuel🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.90%EV -11.72%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 64.52%EV -9.37%E -6.70%K -23.44%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.58%EV -9.37%E -2.34%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-21 21:34
Paddy Power🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 12.66%EV -11.72%E -1.67%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 65.18%EV -11.96%E -8.80%K -33.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.16%EV -9.37%E -2.34%K -3.12%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-21 21:35
Sky Bet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 13.89%EV -21.18%E -3.39%K -4.03%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 62.00%EV -9.37%E -6.70%K -23.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.11%EV -18.44%E -5.12%K -7.09%G +0.000%15.2%2026-08-21 21:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-21 21:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-21 21:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-21 21:40