The School of Odds
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Asteras Tripolis v Aris Thessaloniki

Kickoff: 2026-09-07 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Asteras Tripolis (Local)

Prediction 47.78%2.09fair odd
EV -1.56%
Edge -0.760%
Kelly -1.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.10%47.78%47.78%47.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.892.022.062.0652.91%49.59%48.54%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Aris Thessaloniki (Visit)

Prediction 24.27%4.12fair odd
EV -7.78%
Edge -2.05%
Kelly -2.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.27%24.27%24.27%27.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.503.553.8030.77%28.60%28.17%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.95%3.58fair odd
EV -4.42%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -1.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.39%27.95%27.95%28.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.243.303.4233.33%30.82%30.30%29.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Asteras Tripolis (Local): 47.78%; Aris Thessaloniki (Visit): 24.27%; Draw: 27.95%. For Asteras Tripolis (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.09. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.06, with an expected value of -1.56%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.47%EV -1.56%E -0.760%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.15%EV -16.27%E -4.72%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.39%EV -4.42%E -1.29%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-03 18:24
Unibet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.36%EV -1.56%E -0.760%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -13.84%E -3.90%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.78%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 20:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.36%EV -1.56%E -0.760%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -13.84%E -3.90%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.78%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 20:55
Casumo🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.36%EV -1.56%E -0.760%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -13.84%E -3.90%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.78%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 20:55
TABtouch🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.36%EV -1.56%E -0.760%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -13.84%E -3.90%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.78%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 20:55
Grosvenor🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.36%EV -1.56%E -0.760%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -13.84%E -3.90%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.78%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 20:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.36%EV -1.56%E -0.760%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -13.84%E -3.90%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.78%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 20:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.36%EV -1.56%E -0.760%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -13.84%E -3.90%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.78%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 20:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.36%EV -1.56%E -0.760%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.32%EV -13.84%E -3.90%K -5.43%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -7.78%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-02 20:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.10%EV -6.34%E -3.24%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.39%EV -18.70%E -5.58%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.51%EV -13.37%E -4.31%K -6.36%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-02 20:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.10%EV -6.34%E -3.24%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.39%EV -18.70%E -5.58%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.51%EV -13.37%E -4.31%K -6.36%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-02 20:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.23%EV -6.82%E -3.50%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.33%EV -18.70%E -5.58%K -7.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.45%EV -13.37%E -4.31%K -6.36%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-02 20:55
Tipico (DE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.78%EV -7.78%E -4.03%K -8.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.78%E -2.05%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -7.78%E -2.36%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-02 20:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 45.22%EV -9.69%E -5.13%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.30%EV -21.12%E -6.50%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.49%EV -16.16%E -5.39%K -8.08%G +0.000%17.0%2026-09-02 20:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.