The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Asteras Tripolis v Aris Thessaloniki

2026-11-23 15:00 UTC — Super League - Greece

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Asteras Tripolis (Local)

Prediction 26.46%3.78fair odd
EV -2.89%
Edge -0.786%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.86%26.46%26.46%27.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.343.403.6732.26%29.98%29.41%27.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Aris Thessaloniki (Visit)

Prediction 42.23%2.37fair odd
EV -3.72%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -2.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.63%42.23%42.23%43.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.892.102.152.2852.91%47.62%46.51%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.31%3.19fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -0.947%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.28%31.31%31.31%32.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.963.003.1035.71%33.81%33.33%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Asteras Tripolis (Local): 26.46%; Aris Thessaloniki (Visit): 42.23%; Draw: 31.31%. For Asteras Tripolis (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.78. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.67, with an expected value of -2.89%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.67I 27.25%NM 25.86%EV -2.89%E -0.786%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.63%EV -3.72%E -1.63%K -2.91%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.51%EV -8.57%E -2.94%K -4.46%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-08 16:30
1xBet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.34%EV -6.06%E -1.71%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -7.10%E -3.23%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.17%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-08 16:15
Betsson🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -8.71%E -2.52%K -3.55%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.82%EV -7.94%E -3.64%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -2.94%E -0.947%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-08 16:10
NordicBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.03%E -2.95%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -9.21%E -4.28%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-08 16:10
Bovada🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.03%E -2.95%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -9.21%E -4.28%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-08 16:15
Betclic (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.00%EV -15.32%E -4.79%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.20%EV -15.54%E -7.77%K -15.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.80%EV -9.20%E -3.17%K -4.84%G +0.000%15.7%2026-11-08 16:10
Winamax (DE)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 27.88%EV -16.65%E -5.28%K -7.74%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.84%EV -13.43%E -6.55%K -12.79%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.28%EV -6.07%E -2.02%K -3.03%G +0.000%13.9%2026-11-08 16:10
Winamax (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 27.63%EV -17.97%E -5.80%K -8.56%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.83%EV -15.54%E -7.77%K -15.54%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.54%EV -9.20%E -3.17%K -4.84%G +0.000%16.7%2026-11-08 16:15
Unibet (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 26.69%EV -17.97%E -5.80%K -8.56%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 43.77%EV -20.19%E -10.68%K -22.69%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 29.54%EV -12.33%E -4.40%K -6.85%G +0.000%20.9%2026-11-08 16:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Discuss this game on odds.forum

No published comments yet.