The School of Odds
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Aris Thessaloniki v Panetolikos Agrinio

Kickoff: 2026-11-07 17:30 UTC

Final: Aris Thessaloniki 3–0 Panetolikos Agrinio

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

50 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aris Thessaloniki (Local)

Prediction 68.68%1.46fair odd
EV -3.85%
Edge -2.75%
Kelly -9.63%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.89%68.73%68.68%71.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.351.351.4080.65%74.27%74.07%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Panetolikos Agrinio (Visit)

Prediction 11.73%8.53fair odd
EV +2.15%
Edge +0.246%
Kelly +0.278%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 8.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.71%11.69%11.69%13.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.547.508.7115.38%13.26%13.33%11.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.60%5.10fair odd
EV -0.455%
Edge -0.090%
Kelly -0.111%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.20%19.58%19.62%21.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.544.505.0825.32%22.03%22.22%19.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aris Thessaloniki (Local): 68.68%; Panetolikos Agrinio (Visit): 11.73%; Draw: 19.60%. For Panetolikos Agrinio (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.53. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.71, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.15%.

Sportsbook Odds (50 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.08%EV -5.91%E -4.32%K -15.98%G +0.000%8.71I 11.48%NM 11.02%EV +2.15%E +0.246%K +0.278%G +0.006%5.08I 19.69%NM 18.90%EV -0.455%E -0.090%K -0.111%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-07 16:45
Coolbet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.83%EV -5.23%E -3.79%K -13.75%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.17%EV -0.316%E -0.037%K -0.042%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.00%EV -6.92%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-07 16:45
FanDuel🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.03%EV -8.66%E -6.51%K -26.24%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.96%EV -0.316%E -0.037%K -0.042%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -3.98%E -0.813%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-07 17:04
SportsBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.92%EV -9.35%E -7.08%K -29.21%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.86%EV -0.316%E -0.037%K -0.042%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.23%EV -5.94%E -1.24%K -1.56%G +0.000%8.4%2026-11-07 17:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.09%EV -12.09%E -9.45%K -43.19%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.71%EV -0.316%E -0.037%K -0.042%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.20%EV -2.02%E -0.404%K -0.506%G +0.000%9.9%2026-11-07 17:00
1xBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.82%EV -6.60%E -4.85%K -18.33%G +0.000%8.37I 11.95%NM 11.18%EV -1.84%E -0.220%K -0.250%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 20.00%EV -8.29%E -1.77%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-07 17:20
Betsson🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.85%EV -5.91%E -4.32%K -15.98%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.50%EV -3.83%E -0.468%K -0.533%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.65%EV -5.94%E -1.24%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-07 17:20
DraftKings🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.77%EV -5.23%E -3.79%K -13.75%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.86%EV -6.18%E -0.772%K -0.883%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.37%EV -3.98%E -0.813%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-07 16:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.51%EV -5.91%E -4.32%K -15.98%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.73%EV -6.18%E -0.772%K -0.883%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -6.92%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-07 16:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.24%EV -7.29%E -5.40%K -20.82%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV -6.18%E -0.772%K -0.883%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -3.98%E -0.813%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-07 16:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.24%EV -7.29%E -5.40%K -20.82%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.68%EV -6.18%E -0.772%K -0.883%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.08%EV -3.98%E -0.813%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-07 16:45
BetUS🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.82%EV -7.29%E -5.40%K -20.82%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.61%EV -6.18%E -0.772%K -0.883%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.56%EV -6.92%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-07 16:50
Betway🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.14%EV -8.66%E -6.51%K -26.24%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.50%EV -6.18%E -0.772%K -0.883%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.36%EV -6.92%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%8.7%2026-11-07 16:45
Bet Right🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.61%EV -6.60%E -4.85%K -18.33%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.49%EV -6.18%E -0.772%K -0.883%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -13.78%E -3.13%K -4.05%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-07 16:45
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.90%EV -10.72%E -8.25%K -35.73%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.20%EV -6.18%E -0.772%K -0.883%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -11.82%E -2.63%K -3.38%G +0.000%11.6%2026-11-07 17:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.06%EV -11.41%E -8.84%K -39.33%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.14%EV -6.18%E -0.772%K -0.883%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -11.82%E -2.63%K -3.38%G +0.000%12.2%2026-11-07 17:15
NordicBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.29%EV -7.29%E -5.40%K -20.82%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.67%EV -7.35%E -0.931%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -9.86%E -2.14%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.5%2026-11-07 17:20
Bovada🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.30%EV -7.97%E -5.95%K -23.45%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.81%EV -9.11%E -1.18%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.90%EV -9.86%E -2.14%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-07 16:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.03%EV -7.29%E -5.40%K -20.82%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.68%EV -9.11%E -1.18%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.29%EV -16.72%E -3.93%K -5.14%G +0.000%10.5%2026-11-07 16:45
TABtouch🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -3.85%E -2.75%K -9.63%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -12.04%E -1.61%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -11.82%E -2.63%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-01 16:20
Casumo🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -3.85%E -2.75%K -9.63%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -12.04%E -1.61%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -11.82%E -2.63%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-01 16:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -3.85%E -2.75%K -9.63%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -12.04%E -1.61%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -11.82%E -2.63%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-01 16:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -3.85%E -2.75%K -9.63%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -12.04%E -1.61%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -11.82%E -2.63%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-01 16:20
Grosvenor🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -3.85%E -2.75%K -9.63%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -12.04%E -1.61%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -11.82%E -2.63%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-01 16:20
Unibet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -3.85%E -2.75%K -9.63%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -12.04%E -1.61%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -11.82%E -2.63%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-01 16:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -3.85%E -2.75%K -9.63%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -12.04%E -1.61%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -11.82%E -2.63%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-01 16:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -3.85%E -2.75%K -9.63%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -12.04%E -1.61%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -11.82%E -2.63%K -3.38%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-01 16:20
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.14%EV -6.60%E -4.85%K -18.33%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.36%EV -12.04%E -1.61%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.51%EV -6.92%E -1.46%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.9%2026-11-07 16:45
Fanatics🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -6.60%E -4.85%K -18.33%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -12.04%E -1.61%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -11.82%E -2.63%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-07 16:45
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -6.60%E -4.85%K -18.33%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -12.04%E -1.61%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -11.82%E -2.63%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-07 16:40
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -6.60%E -4.85%K -18.33%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -12.04%E -1.61%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -11.82%E -2.63%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-07 16:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -6.60%E -4.85%K -18.33%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -12.04%E -1.61%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -11.82%E -2.63%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-07 16:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -6.60%E -4.85%K -18.33%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -12.04%E -1.61%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -11.82%E -2.63%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-07 16:40
betfred_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.93%EV -8.66%E -6.51%K -26.24%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.87%EV -12.04%E -1.61%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.20%EV -17.70%E -4.21%K -5.53%G +0.000%12.3%2026-11-07 16:45
Sky Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.39%EV -10.72%E -8.25%K -35.73%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -12.04%E -1.61%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.76%EV -11.82%E -2.63%K -3.38%G +0.000%12.5%2026-11-07 16:58
Betclic (FR)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 68.57%EV -12.09%E -9.45%K -43.19%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.70%EV -12.04%E -1.61%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 19.72%EV -12.80%E -2.88%K -3.71%G +0.000%13.9%2026-11-07 17:19
NetBet (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 68.59%EV -12.78%E -10.06%K -47.33%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.61%EV -12.04%E -1.61%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.80%EV -13.78%E -3.13%K -4.05%G +0.000%14.8%2026-11-07 16:50
Codere (IT)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.15%EV -7.29%E -5.40%K -20.82%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.25%EV -13.22%E -1.79%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.60%EV -13.78%E -3.13%K -4.05%G +0.000%10.3%2026-11-07 16:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 68.00%EV -7.97%E -5.95%K -23.45%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.02%EV -17.91%E -2.56%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.98%EV -5.94%E -1.24%K -1.56%G +0.000%9.7%2026-11-07 17:20
BoyleSports🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 67.81%EV -10.72%E -8.25%K -35.73%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.59%EV -17.91%E -2.56%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.59%EV -11.82%E -2.63%K -3.38%G +0.000%13.4%2026-11-07 17:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 65.89%EV -7.97%E -5.95%K -23.45%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.08%EV -20.84%E -3.09%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.02%EV -17.70%E -4.21%K -5.53%G +0.000%13.3%2026-11-01 16:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 65.89%EV -7.97%E -5.95%K -23.45%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.08%EV -20.84%E -3.09%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.02%EV -17.70%E -4.21%K -5.53%G +0.000%13.3%2026-11-01 16:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 65.89%EV -7.97%E -5.95%K -23.45%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.08%EV -20.84%E -3.09%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.02%EV -17.70%E -4.21%K -5.53%G +0.000%13.3%2026-11-01 16:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 66.24%EV -10.72%E -8.25%K -35.73%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.76%EV -20.84%E -3.09%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.00%EV -19.66%E -4.79%K -6.34%G +0.000%16.1%2026-11-01 16:20
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.03%EV -7.29%E -5.40%K -20.82%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.71%EV -23.77%E -3.66%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -13.78%E -3.13%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.2%2026-11-07 16:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.03%EV -7.29%E -5.40%K -20.82%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.71%EV -23.77%E -3.66%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -13.78%E -3.13%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.2%2026-11-07 16:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.03%EV -7.29%E -5.40%K -20.82%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.71%EV -23.77%E -3.66%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -13.78%E -3.13%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.2%2026-11-07 16:45
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.03%EV -7.29%E -5.40%K -20.82%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.71%EV -23.77%E -3.66%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -13.78%E -3.13%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.2%2026-11-07 16:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 66.87%EV -10.72%E -8.25%K -35.73%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.37%EV -23.77%E -3.66%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.76%EV -13.78%E -3.13%K -4.05%G +0.000%15.0%2026-11-07 17:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 66.46%EV -14.84%E -11.97%K -61.84%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 12.68%EV -23.77%E -3.66%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 20.86%EV -22.60%E -5.72%K -7.66%G +0.000%21.3%2026-11-07 17:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 71.22%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.97%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.81%0.3%2026-11-07 17:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 71.22%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.97%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.81%0.3%2026-11-07 17:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 71.22%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.97%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.81%0.3%2026-11-07 17:05
Smarkets◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.36%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.92%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%0.8%2026-11-07 17:00
Kalshi◎1.39I 71.94%NM 70.56%9.09I 11.00%NM 10.79%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.65%2.0%2026-11-07 17:15

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