The School of Odds
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Aris Thessaloniki v OFI Crete

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Aris Thessaloniki (Local)

Prediction 51.53%1.94fair odd
EV -4.67%
Edge -2.52%
Kelly -5.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.67%51.53%51.53%51.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.781.771.8557.80%56.18%56.34%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

OFI Crete (Visit)

Prediction 21.44%4.66fair odd
EV -5.67%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -1.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.30%21.44%21.44%22.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.204.254.4026.32%23.81%23.53%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.03%3.70fair odd
EV -5.39%
Edge -1.54%
Kelly -2.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.94%27.03%27.03%27.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.353.403.5032.26%29.85%29.41%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aris Thessaloniki (Local): 51.53%; OFI Crete (Visit): 21.44%; Draw: 27.03%. For Aris Thessaloniki (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.94. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.85, with an expected value of -4.67%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.31%EV -4.67%E -2.52%K -5.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -5.67%E -1.29%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.12%EV -5.39%E -1.54%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-21 21:49
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.07%EV -7.24%E -4.02%K -9.06%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.89%EV -9.96%E -2.37%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-21 21:49
SportsBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 51.61%EV -8.28%E -4.65%K -10.61%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.37%EV -7.82%E -1.82%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-21 21:49
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.75%EV -8.79%E -4.97%K -11.42%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.30%EV -7.82%E -1.82%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.94%EV -8.09%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-21 21:54
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.36%EV -9.82%E -5.61%K -13.09%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.40%EV -9.96%E -2.37%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.80%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-21 21:49
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 49.67%EV -10.85%E -6.27%K -14.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.61%EV -18.54%E -4.88%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.72%EV -16.20%E -5.23%K -7.72%G +0.000%16.4%2026-08-21 21:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-21 21:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-21 21:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-21 21:40