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AE Kifisia FC v AEK Athens

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

AE Kifisia FC (Local)

Prediction 8.97%11.14fair odd
EV +16.66%
Edge +1.28%
Kelly +1.39%
Growth +0.231%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.14%8.97%7.60%11.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.8311.4212.0013.0012.77%8.76%8.33%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

AEK Athens (Visit)

Prediction 72.15%1.39fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -5.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.04%72.15%73.48%74.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.261.251.3681.97%79.44%80.32%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.88%5.30fair odd
EV -5.61%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.57%18.88%18.92%19.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.804.905.0023.09%20.82%20.41%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: AE Kifisia FC (Local): 8.97%; AEK Athens (Visit): 72.15%; Draw: 18.88%. For AE Kifisia FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.14. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.66%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.31%EV +16.66%E +1.28%K +1.39%G +0.231%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.68%EV -6.93%E -5.37%K -23.89%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.01%EV -5.61%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-21 21:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV +16.66%E +1.28%K +1.39%G +0.231%1.25I 80.00%NM 74.29%EV -9.81%E -7.85%K -39.26%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -5.61%E -1.12%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-21 21:49
SportsBet🎯12.50I 8.00%NM 7.34%EV +12.17%E +0.974%K +1.06%G +0.129%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.95%EV -10.54%E -8.50%K -43.90%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.71%EV -7.50%E -1.53%K -1.92%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-21 21:30
FanDuel🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.62%EV +7.68%E +0.640%K +0.699%G +0.054%1.24I 80.65%NM 73.72%EV -10.54%E -8.50%K -43.90%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.66%EV -7.50%E -1.53%K -1.92%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-21 21:34
betfred_uk🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.57%EV +7.68%E +0.640%K +0.699%G +0.054%1.25I 80.00%NM 72.68%EV -9.81%E -7.85%K -39.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -13.16%E -2.86%K -3.66%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-21 21:29
Paddy Power🎯12.00I 8.33%NM 7.48%EV +7.68%E +0.640%K +0.699%G +0.054%1.22I 81.97%NM 73.61%EV -11.98%E -9.82%K -54.45%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.91%EV -10.33%E -2.17%K -2.75%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-21 21:35
Sky Bet🎯9.00I 11.11%NM 9.56%EV -19.24%E -2.14%K -2.40%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 70.56%EV -11.98%E -9.82%K -54.45%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 19.88%EV -18.26%E -4.22%K -5.48%G +0.000%16.2%2026-08-21 21:34
Pinnacle🎯7.83I 12.77%NM 11.99%EV -29.74%E -3.80%K -4.35%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.04%EV -1.88%E -1.38%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.97%EV -6.55%E -1.32%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-22 19:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-21 21:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-21 21:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-21 21:40