The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Waldhof Mannheim v TSG Hoffenheim II

Kickoff: 2026-10-25 18:30 UTC

Final: Waldhof Mannheim 4–1 TSG Hoffenheim II

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

40 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Waldhof Mannheim (Local)

Prediction 41.29%2.42fair odd
EV -5.04%
Edge -2.19%
Kelly -3.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.42%41.32%41.29%42.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.182.182.3048.78%45.96%45.87%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TSG Hoffenheim II (Visit)

Prediction 33.37%3.00fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -0.876%
Kelly -1.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.24%33.44%33.36%35.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.702.702.9241.67%37.03%37.04%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.34%3.95fair odd
EV -2.43%
Edge -0.631%
Kelly -0.852%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.50%25.23%25.35%26.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.613.603.8530.30%27.73%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Waldhof Mannheim (Local): 41.29%; TSG Hoffenheim II (Visit): 33.37%; Draw: 25.34%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.95. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.85, with an expected value of -2.43%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.04%E -2.19%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.76%EV -3.89%E -1.35%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -8.76%E -2.43%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-25 18:08
BetOnline.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.04%E -2.19%K -3.88%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.76%EV -3.89%E -1.35%K -2.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -8.76%E -2.43%K -3.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-25 18:08
Pinnacle🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 41.55%EV -5.46%E -2.38%K -4.23%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.59%EV -2.56%E -0.876%K -1.33%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.86%EV -6.74%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-25 18:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.22%EV -7.11%E -3.16%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -8.23%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -6.23%E -1.68%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-25 04:44
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.09%EV -7.11%E -3.16%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -11.57%E -4.36%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -2.43%E -0.631%K -0.852%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-23 19:44
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.42%EV -7.11%E -3.16%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.32%EV -11.57%E -4.36%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.26%EV -8.76%E -2.43%K -3.37%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-25 04:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 41.04%EV -7.93%E -3.56%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.89%EV -9.90%E -3.67%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.07%EV -7.50%E -2.05%K -2.83%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-25 06:35
1xBet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 40.95%EV -8.76%E -3.96%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 33.77%EV -10.57%E -3.94%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.28%EV -9.27%E -2.59%K -3.59%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-25 18:08
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -9.17%E -4.17%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -3.22%E -1.11%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -6.23%E -1.68%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-25 18:08
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.91%EV -9.17%E -4.17%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -9.90%E -3.67%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -2.43%E -0.631%K -0.852%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-25 04:45
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -9.17%E -4.17%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -6.56%E -2.34%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -8.76%E -2.43%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-25 18:03
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.08%EV -9.17%E -4.17%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.47%EV -9.90%E -3.67%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -10.03%E -2.83%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-25 18:25
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.87%EV -9.17%E -4.17%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.69%EV -8.23%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -13.83%E -4.07%K -5.76%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-25 18:03
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.87%EV -9.17%E -4.17%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.69%EV -8.23%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -13.83%E -4.07%K -5.76%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-25 18:08
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.87%EV -9.17%E -4.17%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.69%EV -8.23%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -13.83%E -4.07%K -5.76%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-25 18:08
Virgin Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.98%EV -10.00%E -4.59%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.23%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -6.23%E -1.68%K -2.31%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-22 20:40
Unibet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.98%EV -10.00%E -4.59%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.23%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -6.23%E -1.68%K -2.31%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-22 20:40
Casumo🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.98%EV -10.00%E -4.59%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.23%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -6.23%E -1.68%K -2.31%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-22 20:40
Grosvenor🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.98%EV -10.00%E -4.59%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.23%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -6.23%E -1.68%K -2.31%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-22 20:39
LiveScore Bet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.98%EV -10.00%E -4.59%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.23%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -6.23%E -1.68%K -2.31%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-22 20:40
TABtouch🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.98%EV -10.00%E -4.59%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.23%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -6.23%E -1.68%K -2.31%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-22 20:39
Unibet (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.98%EV -10.00%E -4.59%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.23%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -6.23%E -1.68%K -2.31%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-22 20:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.98%EV -10.00%E -4.59%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.23%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -6.23%E -1.68%K -2.31%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-22 20:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.98%EV -10.00%E -4.59%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.23%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -6.23%E -1.68%K -2.31%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-22 20:39
LeoVegas🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 41.32%EV -10.00%E -4.59%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.99%EV -11.57%E -4.36%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.68%EV -7.50%E -2.05%K -2.83%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-25 18:08
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -11.24%E -5.23%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.75%EV -8.23%E -2.99%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.37%EV -10.03%E -2.83%K -3.93%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-25 18:23
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -11.24%E -5.23%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.56%EV -13.24%E -5.09%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -3.69%E -0.972%K -1.32%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-23 19:44
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -11.24%E -5.23%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.45%EV -13.24%E -5.09%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -4.96%E -1.32%K -1.80%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-23 19:45
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.64%EV -11.24%E -5.23%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.17%EV -12.57%E -4.80%K -7.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.19%EV -6.23%E -1.68%K -2.31%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-25 15:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -11.24%E -5.23%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -9.90%E -3.67%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -11.30%E -3.23%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-25 04:06
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -11.24%E -5.23%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -9.90%E -3.67%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -11.30%E -3.23%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-25 04:06
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -11.24%E -5.23%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -9.90%E -3.67%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -11.30%E -3.23%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-25 04:06
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.48%EV -11.24%E -5.23%K -9.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -9.90%E -3.67%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -11.30%E -3.23%K -4.52%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-25 04:06
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.98%EV -13.30%E -6.33%K -12.09%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.52%EV -12.23%E -4.65%K -7.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.49%EV -8.76%E -2.43%K -3.37%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-25 18:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.95%EV -13.30%E -6.33%K -12.09%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.24%EV -11.57%E -4.36%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.81%EV -10.03%E -2.83%K -3.93%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-22 20:40
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.53%EV -13.30%E -6.33%K -12.09%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.55%EV -13.24%E -5.09%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.92%EV -11.30%E -3.23%K -4.52%G +0.000%14.7%2026-10-25 15:35
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.53%EV -13.30%E -6.33%K -12.09%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.55%EV -13.24%E -5.09%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.92%EV -11.30%E -3.23%K -4.52%G +0.000%14.7%2026-10-22 18:52
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 41.26%EV -15.36%E -7.49%K -14.63%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.24%EV -19.91%E -8.30%K -14.22%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.50%EV -8.76%E -2.43%K -3.37%G +0.000%18.2%2026-10-25 18:03
betano_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 40.68%EV -15.36%E -7.49%K -14.63%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 34.04%EV -18.24%E -7.45%K -12.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.27%EV -16.37%E -4.96%K -7.12%G +0.000%19.9%2026-10-25 18:10
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 40.68%EV -15.36%E -7.49%K -14.63%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 34.04%EV -18.24%E -7.45%K -12.58%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.27%EV -16.37%E -4.96%K -7.12%G +0.000%19.9%2026-10-25 18:13
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.49%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.86%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.65%1.4%2026-10-25 18:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.49%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.86%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.65%1.4%2026-10-25 18:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.02%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.77%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.21%1.7%2026-10-25 18:25