The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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VfB Stuttgart II v TSG Hoffenheim II

Kickoff: 2026-10-13 17:00 UTC

Final: VfB Stuttgart II 3–2 TSG Hoffenheim II

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfB Stuttgart II (Local)

Prediction 33.78%2.96fair odd
EV -0.342%
Edge -0.116%
Kelly -0.175%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.87%33.70%33.89%35.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.742.702.9542.02%36.48%37.04%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TSG Hoffenheim II (Visit)

Prediction 42.66%2.34fair odd
EV -3.59%
Edge -1.59%
Kelly -2.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.36%42.69%42.44%45.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.092.102.2651.55%47.92%47.62%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.56%4.25fair odd
EV -3.42%
Edge -0.833%
Kelly -1.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.47%23.61%23.67%24.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.793.804.1029.41%26.39%26.32%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfB Stuttgart II (Local): 33.78%; TSG Hoffenheim II (Visit): 42.66%; Draw: 23.56%. For VfB Stuttgart II (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.96. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.95, with an expected value of -0.342%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -0.342%E -0.116%K -0.175%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.26%EV -13.82%E -6.84%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.75%EV -9.31%E -2.42%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-13 09:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -0.342%E -0.116%K -0.175%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.26%EV -13.82%E -6.84%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.75%EV -9.31%E -2.42%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-13 09:09
Virgin Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -0.342%E -0.116%K -0.175%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.26%EV -13.82%E -6.84%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.75%EV -9.31%E -2.42%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-13 09:09
TABtouch🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -0.342%E -0.116%K -0.175%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.26%EV -13.82%E -6.84%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.75%EV -9.31%E -2.42%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-13 09:09
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -0.342%E -0.116%K -0.175%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.26%EV -13.82%E -6.84%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.75%EV -9.31%E -2.42%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-13 09:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -0.342%E -0.116%K -0.175%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.26%EV -13.82%E -6.84%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.75%EV -9.31%E -2.42%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-13 09:09
Unibet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -0.342%E -0.116%K -0.175%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.26%EV -13.82%E -6.84%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.75%EV -9.31%E -2.42%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-13 09:09
Svenska Spel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -0.342%E -0.116%K -0.175%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.26%EV -13.82%E -6.84%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.75%EV -9.31%E -2.42%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-13 09:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.99%EV -0.342%E -0.116%K -0.175%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.26%EV -13.82%E -6.84%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.75%EV -9.31%E -2.42%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-13 09:09
Tipico (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.76%EV -3.72%E -1.31%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.46%EV -10.41%E -4.96%K -9.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.77%EV -3.42%E -0.833%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-13 16:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 30.87%EV -3.72%E -1.31%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 45.35%EV -17.24%E -8.89%K -18.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.78%EV -12.84%E -3.47%K -4.76%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-13 09:05
Coolbet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.10%EV -5.41%E -1.93%K -3.01%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.72%EV -9.56%E -4.51%K -8.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -5.77%E -1.44%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-13 16:39
Pinnacle🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 34.25%EV -6.09%E -2.19%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.13%EV -3.59%E -1.59%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 23.62%EV -5.07%E -1.26%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-13 16:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.83%EV -6.09%E -2.19%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.36%EV -5.29%E -2.38%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -6.95%E -1.76%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-13 16:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.83%EV -6.09%E -2.19%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.36%EV -5.29%E -2.38%K -4.34%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -6.95%E -1.76%K -2.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-13 16:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -7.10%E -2.58%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.04%EV -6.15%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.34%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-13 16:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.61%EV -7.10%E -2.58%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.40%EV -6.95%E -1.76%K -2.36%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-13 16:34
Bovada🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -7.10%E -2.58%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -10.41%E -4.96%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.10%EV -11.66%E -3.11%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-13 16:38
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -7.10%E -2.58%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -12.55%E -6.12%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.85%EV -11.66%E -3.11%K -4.24%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-13 02:39
Betway🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -8.79%E -3.25%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.85%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -5.77%E -1.44%K -1.92%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-13 16:54
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.49%EV -8.79%E -3.25%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.06%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.44%EV -12.84%E -3.47%K -4.76%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-13 16:34
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -8.79%E -3.25%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.92%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.69%EV -14.02%E -3.84%K -5.29%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-13 16:54
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.23%EV -8.79%E -3.25%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.77%EV -12.55%E -6.12%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -8.13%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-13 16:40
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.16%EV -8.79%E -3.25%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.64%EV -10.41%E -4.96%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -12.84%E -3.47%K -4.76%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-13 16:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.16%EV -8.79%E -3.25%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.64%EV -10.41%E -4.96%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -12.84%E -3.47%K -4.76%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-13 16:34
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.16%EV -8.79%E -3.25%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.64%EV -10.41%E -4.96%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -12.84%E -3.47%K -4.76%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-13 16:35
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.16%EV -8.79%E -3.25%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.64%EV -10.41%E -4.96%K -9.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -12.84%E -3.47%K -4.76%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-13 16:34
Paddy Power🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.03%EV -8.79%E -3.25%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.50%EV -12.55%E -6.12%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.47%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-13 16:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.87%EV -8.79%E -3.25%K -5.17%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.37%EV -14.68%E -7.34%K -14.68%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.76%EV -8.13%E -2.08%K -2.80%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-13 16:55
1xBet🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 33.61%EV -9.13%E -3.39%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 42.85%EV -9.99%E -4.73%K -9.00%G +0.000%3.84I 26.04%NM 23.54%EV -9.54%E -2.48%K -3.36%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-13 16:38
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.46%EV -10.48%E -3.95%K -6.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.51%EV -6.15%E -2.79%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-13 16:45
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.94%EV -11.49%E -4.39%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.36%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.70%EV -15.20%E -4.22%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-13 16:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.94%EV -11.49%E -4.39%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.36%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.70%EV -15.20%E -4.22%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-13 16:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.94%EV -11.49%E -4.39%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.36%EV -8.28%E -3.85%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.70%EV -15.20%E -4.22%K -5.84%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-13 16:54
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.06%EV -13.86%E -5.43%K -8.94%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 42.78%EV -13.40%E -6.60%K -13.01%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.16%EV -11.66%E -3.11%K -4.24%G +0.000%15.1%2026-10-13 16:54
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.32%EV -15.54%E -6.22%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 41.85%EV -12.55%E -6.12%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.83%EV -15.20%E -4.22%K -5.84%G +0.000%16.6%2026-10-13 16:34
betano_uk🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 33.95%EV -17.23%E -7.03%K -11.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 41.59%EV -14.68%E -7.34%K -14.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.46%EV -19.91%E -5.85%K -8.29%G +0.000%20.2%2026-10-13 16:38
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 33.95%EV -17.23%E -7.03%K -11.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 41.59%EV -14.68%E -7.34%K -14.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.46%EV -19.91%E -5.85%K -8.29%G +0.000%20.2%2026-10-13 16:38
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 35.88%EV -19.60%E -8.23%K -14.20%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 41.65%EV -12.55%E -6.12%K -11.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.47%EV -10.48%E -2.76%K -3.74%G +0.000%17.1%2026-10-13 16:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.10%2.24I 44.64%NM 44.33%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.57%0.7%2026-10-13 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.97%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.55%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.48%1.1%2026-10-13 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.97%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.55%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.48%1.1%2026-10-13 16:55