The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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VfB Stuttgart II v SSV Ulm 1846

Kickoff: 2026-04-08 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfB Stuttgart II (Local)

Prediction 48.29%2.07fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -1.22%
Kelly -2.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.13%48.29%48.19%50.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.931.912.0257.80%51.89%52.36%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SSV Ulm 1846 (Visit)

Prediction 27.23%3.67fair odd
EV -1.99%
Edge -0.552%
Kelly -0.765%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.99%27.21%27.31%29.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.223.253.6033.33%31.06%30.77%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.49%4.08fair odd
EV -2.05%
Edge -0.512%
Kelly -0.682%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.22%24.50%24.50%26.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.633.654.0032.26%27.51%27.40%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfB Stuttgart II (Local): 48.29%; SSV Ulm 1846 (Visit): 27.23%; Draw: 24.49%. For SSV Ulm 1846 (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.67. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.60, with an expected value of -1.99%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.28%EV -2.46%E -1.22%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.99%EV -16.96%E -5.56%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.72%EV -9.39%E -2.54%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-05 12:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.13%EV -2.46%E -1.22%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -16.96%E -5.56%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -10.62%E -2.91%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-08 16:15
Casumo🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.13%EV -2.46%E -1.22%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -16.96%E -5.56%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -10.62%E -2.91%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-08 16:15
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.13%EV -2.46%E -1.22%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -16.96%E -5.56%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -10.62%E -2.91%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-08 16:15
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.13%EV -2.46%E -1.22%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -16.96%E -5.56%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -10.62%E -2.91%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-08 16:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.13%EV -2.46%E -1.22%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -16.96%E -5.56%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -10.62%E -2.91%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-08 16:20
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.13%EV -2.46%E -1.22%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -16.96%E -5.56%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -10.62%E -2.91%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-08 16:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.13%EV -2.46%E -1.22%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -16.96%E -5.56%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -10.62%E -2.91%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-08 16:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.13%EV -2.46%E -1.22%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -16.96%E -5.56%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -10.62%E -2.91%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-08 16:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.13%EV -2.46%E -1.22%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -16.96%E -5.56%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -10.62%E -2.91%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-08 16:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.13%EV -2.46%E -1.22%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -16.96%E -5.56%K -8.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.98%EV -10.62%E -2.91%K -4.01%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-08 16:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -5.84%E -3.00%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.43%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -8.17%E -2.18%K -2.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-08 16:45
Fanatics🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -5.84%E -3.00%K -6.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -10.16%E -3.08%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -11.84%E -3.29%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.4%2026-04-08 16:44
Pinnacle🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.99%EV -6.33%E -3.26%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.77%EV -3.35%E -0.943%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.24%EV -4.01%E -1.02%K -1.37%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-08 16:50
Winamax (DE)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.01%EV -6.33%E -3.26%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.80%EV -8.79%E -2.63%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.19%EV -5.72%E -1.49%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-08 16:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.00%EV -6.33%E -3.26%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.23%EV -12.06%E -3.73%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.78%EV -9.88%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-08 16:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 47.00%EV -6.33%E -3.26%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.23%EV -12.06%E -3.73%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 24.78%EV -9.88%E -2.69%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-08 16:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.67%EV -6.81%E -3.53%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.46%EV -8.79%E -2.63%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -9.39%E -2.54%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-08 16:50
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -7.77%E -4.07%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -10.16%E -3.08%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -2.05%E -0.512%K -0.682%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-08 16:44
PlayUp🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.37%EV -7.77%E -4.07%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.84%EV -11.52%E -3.54%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.79%EV -10.62%E -2.91%K -4.01%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-08 16:50
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -7.77%E -4.07%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.16%E -3.08%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -14.29%E -4.08%K -5.72%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-08 16:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -7.77%E -4.07%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.16%E -3.08%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -14.29%E -4.08%K -5.72%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-08 16:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.07%EV -7.77%E -4.07%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -10.16%E -3.08%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -14.29%E -4.08%K -5.72%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-08 16:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -7.77%E -4.07%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -11.52%E -3.54%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -14.29%E -4.08%K -5.72%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-08 16:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -7.77%E -4.07%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -11.52%E -3.54%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -14.29%E -4.08%K -5.72%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-08 16:45
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -7.77%E -4.07%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -11.52%E -3.54%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -14.29%E -4.08%K -5.72%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-08 16:45
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.87%EV -7.77%E -4.07%K -8.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.55%EV -11.52%E -3.54%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -14.29%E -4.08%K -5.72%G +0.000%11.7%2026-04-08 16:44
Coolbet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.37%EV -9.22%E -4.91%K -10.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -4.71%E -1.35%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.11%EV -5.72%E -1.49%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-08 16:40
Suprabets🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.31%EV -9.22%E -4.91%K -10.48%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 26.87%EV -7.98%E -2.36%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 24.82%EV -10.37%E -2.83%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-08 16:52
Tipico (DE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.03%EV -9.71%E -5.19%K -11.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -1.99%E -0.552%K -0.765%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -4.49%E -1.15%K -1.55%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-08 16:45
Paddy Power🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.53%EV -10.67%E -5.77%K -12.55%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -10.16%E -3.08%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.26%EV -9.39%E -2.54%K -3.48%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-08 16:50
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.51%EV -11.64%E -6.36%K -14.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -7.43%E -2.19%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.84%EV -6.94%E -1.83%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-08 16:40
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.74%EV -11.64%E -6.36%K -14.02%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.30%EV -12.88%E -4.02%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.96%EV -14.29%E -4.08%K -5.72%G +0.000%14.5%2026-04-08 16:49
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.21%EV -11.64%E -6.36%K -14.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.80%EV -18.32%E -6.11%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.00%EV -11.84%E -3.29%K -4.55%G +0.000%15.8%2026-04-08 16:44
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.69%EV -13.09%E -7.27%K -16.36%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.97%EV -11.52%E -3.54%K -5.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.34%EV -11.84%E -3.29%K -4.55%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-08 16:50
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 46.43%EV -13.09%E -7.27%K -16.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.86%EV -18.32%E -6.11%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 25.71%EV -20.41%E -6.28%K -9.07%G +0.000%19.7%2026-04-08 16:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 47.26%EV -16.47%E -9.52%K -22.56%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.37%EV -15.60%E -5.03%K -7.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.37%EV -24.09%E -7.77%K -11.47%G +0.000%22.3%2026-04-08 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.01%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-04-08 16:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.01%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-04-08 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.01%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-04-08 16:55