The School of Odds
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VfB Stuttgart II v Alemannia Aachen

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 14:30 UTC

Final: VfB Stuttgart II 1–2 Alemannia Aachen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

VfB Stuttgart II (Local)

Prediction 33.21%3.01fair odd
EV +2.95%
Edge +0.953%
Kelly +1.41%
Growth +0.042%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.48%33.33%33.18%34.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.802.753.1040.00%35.73%36.36%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alemannia Aachen (Visit)

Prediction 41.52%2.41fair odd
EV -5.33%
Edge -2.34%
Kelly -4.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.08%41.45%41.47%46.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.122.152.2852.36%47.24%46.51%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.27%3.96fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -0.708%
Kelly -0.956%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.58%25.22%25.35%26.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.633.603.8530.30%27.55%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: VfB Stuttgart II (Local): 33.21%; Alemannia Aachen (Visit): 41.52%; Draw: 25.27%. For VfB Stuttgart II (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.01. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.95%.

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Virgin Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV +2.95%E +0.953%K +1.41%G +0.042%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.30%EV -17.78%E -8.98%K -18.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-19 14:50
LiveScore Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV +2.95%E +0.953%K +1.41%G +0.042%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.30%EV -17.78%E -8.98%K -18.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-19 14:49
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV +2.95%E +0.953%K +1.41%G +0.042%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.30%EV -17.78%E -8.98%K -18.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-19 14:50
Casumo🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV +2.95%E +0.953%K +1.41%G +0.042%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.43%EV -18.20%E -9.24%K -18.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.07%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-19 14:50
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV +2.95%E +0.953%K +1.41%G +0.042%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.43%EV -18.20%E -9.24%K -18.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.07%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-19 14:50
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV +2.95%E +0.953%K +1.41%G +0.042%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.43%EV -18.20%E -9.24%K -18.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.07%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-19 14:50
TABtouch🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV +2.95%E +0.953%K +1.41%G +0.042%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.43%EV -18.20%E -9.24%K -18.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.07%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-19 14:50
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV +2.95%E +0.953%K +1.41%G +0.042%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.43%EV -18.20%E -9.24%K -18.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.07%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-19 14:50
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.50%EV +2.95%E +0.953%K +1.41%G +0.042%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.43%EV -18.20%E -9.24%K -18.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.07%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-19 14:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.48%EV -0.368%E -0.123%K -0.184%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.30%EV -20.69%E -10.83%K -22.74%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.23%EV -7.78%E -2.13%K -2.93%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-19 14:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.22%EV -3.02%E -1.04%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.27%EV -5.33%E -2.34%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.51%EV -10.30%E -2.90%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 14:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.22%EV -3.02%E -1.04%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.27%EV -5.33%E -2.34%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.51%EV -10.30%E -2.90%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 14:10
Pinnacle🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.84%EV -3.69%E -1.27%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.77%EV -5.33%E -2.34%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.39%EV -5.25%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-24 14:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -3.69%E -1.27%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -8.65%E -3.93%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -6.51%E -1.76%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 13:40
Betway🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -7.01%E -2.50%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -8.65%E -3.93%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -9.04%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-24 14:10
1xBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.26%EV -7.01%E -2.50%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 42.22%EV -11.14%E -5.21%K -9.77%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 25.52%EV -10.56%E -2.98%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-24 13:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -8.67%E -3.15%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.35%EV -6.57%E -2.92%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.81%EV -5.25%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 13:55
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -8.67%E -3.15%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -8.65%E -3.93%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -9.04%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 13:40
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -8.67%E -3.15%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.03%EV -10.73%E -4.99%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -9.04%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-24 13:40
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -8.67%E -3.15%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -10.73%E -4.99%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -11.57%E -3.30%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-24 14:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -10.33%E -3.83%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.91%EV -8.65%E -3.93%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.95%EV -2.72%E -0.708%K -0.956%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-24 13:54
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.47%EV -10.33%E -3.83%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.08%EV -8.65%E -3.93%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -10.30%E -2.90%K -4.04%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-24 14:25
888sport🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.40%EV -10.33%E -3.83%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.08%EV -6.57%E -2.92%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -14.09%E -4.15%K -5.87%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-24 14:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.40%EV -10.33%E -3.83%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.08%EV -6.57%E -2.92%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -14.09%E -4.15%K -5.87%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-24 14:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.40%EV -10.33%E -3.83%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.08%EV -6.57%E -2.92%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -14.09%E -4.15%K -5.87%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-24 14:10
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.38%EV -10.33%E -3.83%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.92%EV -10.73%E -4.99%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.69%EV -7.78%E -2.13%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-24 14:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -10.33%E -3.83%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.06%EV -12.80%E -6.10%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.23%EV -11.57%E -3.30%K -4.63%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-24 14:25
Coolbet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -11.99%E -4.53%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.09%EV -6.57%E -2.92%K -5.26%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -2.72%E -0.708%K -0.956%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-24 14:25
SportsBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 32.88%EV -11.99%E -4.53%K -7.27%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.49%EV -12.80%E -6.10%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.63%EV -14.09%E -4.15%K -5.87%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-24 14:25
Neds🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.85%EV -12.66%E -4.81%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.41%EV -10.73%E -4.99%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.73%EV -9.04%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-24 14:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 33.85%EV -12.66%E -4.81%K -7.76%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.41%EV -10.73%E -4.99%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.73%EV -9.04%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-24 14:20
Coral🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.94%EV -12.99%E -4.96%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.36%EV -10.73%E -4.99%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.70%EV -9.04%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-24 14:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.94%EV -12.99%E -4.96%K -8.02%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.36%EV -10.73%E -4.99%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.70%EV -9.04%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-24 14:20
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.56%EV -13.65%E -5.25%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79%EV -10.73%E -4.99%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65%EV -3.99%E -1.05%K -1.42%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-24 14:25
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.45%EV -13.65%E -5.25%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -10.73%E -4.99%K -9.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -5.25%E -1.40%K -1.91%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-24 14:25
Sky Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.30%EV -13.65%E -5.25%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.23%EV -12.80%E -6.10%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.47%EV -14.09%E -4.15%K -5.87%G +0.000%15.5%2026-10-24 14:03
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 33.96%EV -16.97%E -6.79%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.45%EV -16.95%E -8.48%K -16.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.58%EV -9.04%E -2.51%K -3.48%G +0.000%17.8%2026-10-24 14:00
betano_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 33.25%EV -16.97%E -6.79%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 41.56%EV -16.95%E -8.48%K -16.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.19%EV -16.62%E -5.04%K -7.23%G +0.000%20.3%2026-10-24 13:39
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 33.25%EV -16.97%E -6.79%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 41.56%EV -16.95%E -8.48%K -16.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.19%EV -16.62%E -5.04%K -7.23%G +0.000%20.3%2026-10-24 13:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.64%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.83%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.53%0.4%2026-10-24 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.64%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.83%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.53%0.4%2026-10-24 14:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.00%2.36I 42.37%NM 41.94%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.06%1.0%2026-10-24 14:25