The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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TSG Hoffenheim II v VfL Osnabrück

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 12:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TSG Hoffenheim II (Local)

Prediction 31.43%3.18fair odd
EV -0.678%
Edge -0.214%
Kelly -0.314%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.05%31.39%31.41%32.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.892.883.1637.04%34.62%34.72%31.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfL Osnabrück (Visit)

Prediction 42.76%2.34fair odd
EV -5.07%
Edge -2.28%
Kelly -4.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.57%42.69%42.83%43.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.142.152.2251.28%46.68%46.51%45.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.81%3.87fair odd
EV -2.97%
Edge -0.789%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.02%25.92%25.76%27.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.123.453.453.7632.05%28.94%28.99%26.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TSG Hoffenheim II (Local): 31.43%; VfL Osnabrück (Visit): 42.76%; Draw: 25.81%. For TSG Hoffenheim II (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.18. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.16, with an expected value of -0.678%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯3.16I 31.65%NM 30.51%EV -0.678%E -0.214%K -0.314%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.43%EV -5.07%E -2.28%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.06%EV -4.52%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-22 12:19
LowVig.ag🎯3.16I 31.65%NM 30.51%EV -0.678%E -0.214%K -0.314%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.43%EV -5.07%E -2.28%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.06%EV -4.52%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-22 12:20
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -2.56%E -0.827%K -1.22%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -9.68%E -2.76%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 12:00
Pinnacle🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 31.55%EV -5.08%E -1.68%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.11%EV -5.50%E -2.49%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.34%EV -2.97%E -0.789%K -1.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-22 12:19
Unibet (UK)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.33%EV -7.28%E -2.47%K -3.73%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -7.10%E -1.97%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-22 11:54
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.06%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -4.52%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-22 12:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.65%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.49%EV -7.63%E -3.53%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.86%EV -8.39%E -2.36%K -3.29%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-22 12:00
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -5.92%E -2.69%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -12.26%E -3.61%K -5.11%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-22 11:59
theScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.34%EV -10.20%E -4.86%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -7.10%E -1.97%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-22 12:24
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.79%EV -9.34%E -4.41%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -9.68%E -2.76%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.2%2026-03-22 12:19
Bovada🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -10.20%E -4.86%K -9.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -9.68%E -2.76%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.7%2026-03-22 12:23
Paddy Power🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -8.85%E -3.05%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -12.34%E -6.02%K -11.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -12.26%E -3.61%K -5.11%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-22 12:24
TABtouch🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.69%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.86%EV -6.78%E -3.11%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.45%EV -10.97%E -3.18%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-22 11:55
LeoVegas🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.69%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.86%EV -6.78%E -3.11%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.45%EV -10.97%E -3.18%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-17 12:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.69%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.86%EV -6.78%E -3.11%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.45%EV -10.97%E -3.18%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-22 12:00
Unibet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.69%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.86%EV -6.78%E -3.11%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.45%EV -10.97%E -3.18%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-22 12:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.69%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.86%EV -6.78%E -3.11%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.45%EV -10.97%E -3.18%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-22 11:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.69%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.86%EV -6.78%E -3.11%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.45%EV -10.97%E -3.18%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-22 11:59
Grosvenor🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.69%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.86%EV -6.78%E -3.11%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.45%EV -10.97%E -3.18%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-22 12:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.69%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.86%EV -6.78%E -3.11%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.45%EV -10.97%E -3.18%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-22 11:59
Casumo🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.69%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.86%EV -6.78%E -3.11%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.45%EV -10.97%E -3.18%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-22 11:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.69%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.86%EV -6.78%E -3.11%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.45%EV -10.97%E -3.18%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-22 12:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.69%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.86%EV -6.78%E -3.11%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.45%EV -10.97%E -3.18%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-22 11:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.69%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.86%EV -6.78%E -3.11%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.45%EV -10.97%E -3.18%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-22 12:00
Suprabets🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.55%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.86%EV -9.34%E -4.41%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.59%EV -8.39%E -2.36%K -3.29%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-22 12:17
Neds🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -14.84%E -4.50%K -6.45%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-22 12:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.13%EV -9.48%E -3.29%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.70%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.17%EV -14.84%E -4.50%K -6.45%G +0.000%11.5%2026-03-22 11:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.21%EV -9.79%E -3.41%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.14%EV -14.84%E -4.50%K -6.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-22 11:59
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.21%EV -9.79%E -3.41%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.14%EV -14.84%E -4.50%K -6.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-22 12:00
Betway🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -11.99%E -4.28%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -7.10%E -1.97%K -2.73%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-22 12:19
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -11.99%E -4.28%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.26%E -3.61%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-22 12:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -11.99%E -4.28%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.26%E -3.61%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-22 12:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -11.99%E -4.28%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -8.06%E -3.75%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -12.26%E -3.61%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-22 12:05
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.78%EV -11.99%E -4.28%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.10%EV -14.48%E -7.24%K -14.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.12%EV -14.84%E -4.50%K -6.45%G +0.000%16.0%2026-03-22 12:24
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.66%EV -11.99%E -4.28%K -6.66%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.92%EV -14.48%E -7.24%K -14.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.42%EV -16.13%E -4.96%K -7.17%G +0.000%16.5%2026-03-22 12:24
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.17%EV -13.56%E -4.93%K -7.75%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.86%EV -14.48%E -7.24%K -14.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.97%EV -14.84%E -4.50%K -6.45%G +0.000%16.7%2026-03-22 11:54
Bet Victor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 30.77%EV -15.14%E -5.61%K -8.90%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 42.60%EV -16.61%E -8.52%K -17.49%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 26.63%EV -19.48%E -6.24%K -9.19%G +0.000%20.4%2026-03-22 12:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.13%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.11%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.77%2.1%2026-03-22 12:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.13%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.11%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.77%2.1%2026-03-22 12:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.25I 30.77%NM 30.13%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.11%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.77%2.1%2026-03-22 12:24