The School of Odds
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TSG Hoffenheim II v SV Meppen

2026-09-19 12:00 UTC — 3. Liga - Germany

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TSG Hoffenheim II (Local)

Prediction 54.36%1.84fair odd
EV -7.59%
Edge -4.46%
Kelly -10.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.36%54.36%54.36%54.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.701.701.7058.82%58.82%58.82%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SV Meppen (Visit)

Prediction 22.54%4.44fair odd
EV -7.59%
Edge -1.85%
Kelly -2.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.54%22.54%22.54%22.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.104.104.1024.39%24.39%24.39%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.10%4.33fair odd
EV -7.59%
Edge -1.90%
Kelly -2.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.10%23.10%23.10%23.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.004.004.0025.00%25.00%25.00%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: TSG Hoffenheim II (Local): 54.36%; SV Meppen (Visit): 22.54%; Draw: 23.10%. For SV Meppen (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.44. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.10, with an expected value of -7.59%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.36%EV -7.59%E -4.46%K -10.84%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.54%EV -7.59%E -1.85%K -2.45%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -7.59%E -1.90%K -2.53%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-13 21:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.