The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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TSG Hoffenheim II v SC Verl

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 11:30 UTC

Final: TSG Hoffenheim II 2–1 SC Verl

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

40 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TSG Hoffenheim II (Local)

Prediction 50.27%1.99fair odd
EV -5.99%
Edge -3.21%
Kelly -6.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.59%50.26%50.09%51.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.801.811.8759.88%55.52%55.25%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Verl (Visit)

Prediction 26.62%3.76fair odd
EV +1.16%
Edge +0.304%
Kelly +0.413%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.99%26.43%26.81%28.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.413.403.8033.33%29.30%29.41%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.11%4.33fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -0.700%
Kelly -0.918%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.15%23.31%23.10%24.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.883.904.2028.57%25.79%25.64%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TSG Hoffenheim II (Local): 50.27%; SC Verl (Visit): 26.62%; Draw: 23.11%. For SC Verl (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.76. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.16%.

Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.78%EV -5.99%E -3.21%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.99%EV +1.16%E +0.304%K +0.413%G +0.005%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.23%EV -9.41%E -2.40%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 11:15
LowVig.ag🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.09%EV -7.50%E -4.08%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -1.51%E -0.407%K -0.558%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -7.56%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-18 11:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.09%EV -7.50%E -4.08%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -1.51%E -0.407%K -0.558%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -7.56%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-18 11:09
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.93%EV -9.51%E -5.29%K -11.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -1.51%E -0.407%K -0.558%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -5.25%E -1.28%K -1.69%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 11:04
1xBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.80%EV -10.52%E -5.91%K -13.49%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 25.40%EV -5.23%E -1.47%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.80%EV -12.18%E -3.21%K -4.35%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-18 08:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.47%EV -9.01%E -4.98%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -6.83%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -9.87%E -2.53%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-15 09:55
Casumo🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.47%EV -9.01%E -4.98%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -6.83%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -9.87%E -2.53%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-15 09:55
Grosvenor🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.47%EV -9.01%E -4.98%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -6.83%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -9.87%E -2.53%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-15 09:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.47%EV -9.01%E -4.98%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -6.83%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -9.87%E -2.53%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-15 09:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.47%EV -9.01%E -4.98%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -6.83%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -9.87%E -2.53%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-15 09:55
TABtouch🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.47%EV -9.01%E -4.98%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -6.83%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -9.87%E -2.53%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-15 09:55
Unibet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.47%EV -9.01%E -4.98%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -6.83%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -9.87%E -2.53%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-15 09:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.47%EV -9.01%E -4.98%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -6.83%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -9.87%E -2.53%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-15 09:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.47%EV -9.01%E -4.98%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -6.83%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -9.87%E -2.53%K -3.40%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-15 09:54
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.01%EV -12.03%E -6.87%K -16.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -6.83%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -12.18%E -3.21%K -4.35%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-18 11:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.84%EV -7.00%E -3.78%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -9.49%E -2.79%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.56%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-18 11:04
Betway🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.84%EV -7.00%E -3.78%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -9.49%E -2.79%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.56%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-18 11:25
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.84%EV -7.00%E -3.78%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -9.49%E -2.79%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.05%EV -7.56%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-18 11:10
Fanatics🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -8.01%E -4.37%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -9.49%E -2.79%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -7.56%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-18 10:19
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.94%EV -11.02%E -6.23%K -14.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -9.49%E -2.79%K -3.96%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -7.56%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-18 11:04
Bovada🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.08%EV -9.51%E -5.29%K -11.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -9.49%E -2.79%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.41%EV -11.03%E -2.86%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-18 11:02
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.59%EV -7.00%E -3.78%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -9.49%E -2.79%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -16.80%E -4.67%K -6.46%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-18 11:04
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.59%EV -7.00%E -3.78%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -9.49%E -2.79%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -16.80%E -4.67%K -6.46%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-18 11:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.59%EV -7.00%E -3.78%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -9.49%E -2.79%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -16.80%E -4.67%K -6.46%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-18 11:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.93%EV -12.03%E -6.87%K -16.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -9.49%E -2.79%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.85%EV -9.87%E -2.53%K -3.40%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-18 11:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.61%EV -12.53%E -7.20%K -16.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.90%EV -9.49%E -2.79%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.48%EV -13.34%E -3.56%K -4.85%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-15 09:54
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.05%EV -6.50%E -3.49%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.79%EV -10.82%E -3.23%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.16%EV -2.94%E -0.700%K -0.918%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-18 11:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.63%EV -7.00%E -3.78%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.41%EV -10.82%E -3.23%K -4.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -7.56%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-18 11:09
PlayUp🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.89%EV -7.00%E -3.78%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.00%EV -10.82%E -3.23%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.12%EV -13.34%E -3.56%K -4.85%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-18 11:24
SportsBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.72%EV -13.03%E -7.53%K -17.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.19%EV -10.82%E -3.23%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -12.18%E -3.21%K -4.35%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-18 11:24
LeoVegas🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.41%EV -8.01%E -4.37%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -12.15%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.19%EV -9.87%E -2.53%K -3.40%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-18 11:05
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -9.51%E -5.29%K -11.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -12.15%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -7.56%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-18 11:09
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.83%EV -9.51%E -5.29%K -11.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -12.15%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -9.87%E -2.53%K -3.40%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-18 10:15
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.83%EV -9.51%E -5.29%K -11.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -12.15%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -9.87%E -2.53%K -3.40%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-18 10:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.83%EV -9.51%E -5.29%K -11.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -12.15%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -9.87%E -2.53%K -3.40%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-18 10:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.83%EV -9.51%E -5.29%K -11.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -12.15%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -9.87%E -2.53%K -3.40%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-18 10:15
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 50.75%EV -14.54%E -8.55%K -20.77%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.55%EV -13.49%E -4.15%K -5.99%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.70%EV -12.18%E -3.21%K -4.35%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-15 08:49
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 49.16%EV -14.54%E -8.55%K -20.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.96%EV -17.48%E -5.64%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.88%EV -19.12%E -5.46%K -7.65%G +0.000%19.7%2026-10-18 11:19
betano_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 49.16%EV -14.54%E -8.55%K -20.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 26.96%EV -17.48%E -5.64%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.88%EV -19.12%E -5.46%K -7.65%G +0.000%19.7%2026-10-18 11:17
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 50.65%EV -16.05%E -9.61%K -23.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.20%EV -20.14%E -6.71%K -10.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.15%EV -7.56%E -1.89%K -2.52%G +0.000%18.2%2026-10-18 08:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.33%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.28%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.40%1.5%2026-10-18 11:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.33%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.28%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.40%1.5%2026-10-18 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.33%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.28%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.40%1.5%2026-10-18 11:25