The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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TSG Hoffenheim II v FC Viktoria Köln 1904

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 13:00 UTC

Final: TSG Hoffenheim II 0–1 FC Viktoria Köln 1904

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

40 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TSG Hoffenheim II (Local)

Prediction 27.25%3.67fair odd
EV +0.834%
Edge +0.225%
Kelly +0.309%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.97%27.06%27.54%32.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.703.283.203.7037.04%30.53%31.25%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Viktoria Köln 1904 (Visit)

Prediction 49.69%2.01fair odd
EV -0.611%
Edge -0.305%
Kelly -0.611%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.25%49.83%49.35%51.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.851.852.0058.82%54.03%54.05%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.05%4.34fair odd
EV -1.79%
Edge -0.421%
Kelly -0.550%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.34%23.11%23.11%24.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.823.754.2628.57%26.19%26.67%23.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TSG Hoffenheim II (Local): 27.25%; FC Viktoria Köln 1904 (Visit): 49.69%; Draw: 23.05%. For TSG Hoffenheim II (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.67. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.834%.

Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV +0.834%E +0.225%K +0.309%G +0.003%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.66%EV -9.56%E -5.25%K -11.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -5.48%E -1.34%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-31 12:45
LowVig.ag🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV +0.834%E +0.225%K +0.309%G +0.003%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.66%EV -9.56%E -5.25%K -11.65%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -5.48%E -1.34%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-31 12:45
Tipico (DE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV +0.834%E +0.225%K +0.309%G +0.003%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.93%EV -10.55%E -5.86%K -13.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV -5.48%E -1.34%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 12:45
Pinnacle🎯3.68I 27.17%NM 25.95%EV +0.289%E +0.078%K +0.108%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.63%EV -8.06%E -4.36%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.42%EV -1.79%E -0.421%K -0.550%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-31 12:50
Paddy Power🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -1.89%E -0.525%K -0.727%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -13.03%E -7.45%K -17.38%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -12.40%E -3.26%K -4.43%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-31 12:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -4.62%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 50.85%EV -13.03%E -7.45%K -17.38%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -13.55%E -3.61%K -4.93%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-31 12:55
SportsBet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.39%EV -5.98%E -1.73%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 50.93%EV -14.53%E -8.44%K -20.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.68%EV -14.70%E -3.97%K -5.45%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-31 12:55
Betway🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -7.34%E -2.16%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -10.55%E -5.86%K -13.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -7.79%E -1.95%K -2.60%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-31 12:45
PlayUp🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.66%EV -7.34%E -2.16%K -3.06%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 49.80%EV -9.56%E -5.25%K -11.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV -11.25%E -2.92%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-31 12:50
1xBet🎯3.37I 29.67%NM 26.83%EV -8.16%E -2.42%K -3.44%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.23%EV -10.55%E -5.86%K -13.19%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 22.95%EV -9.17%E -2.33%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-31 12:45
Winamax (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.09%EV -10.07%E -3.05%K -4.38%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.30%EV -6.57%E -3.50%K -7.47%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -5.48%E -1.34%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-31 12:45
Unibet (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.08%EV -10.07%E -3.05%K -4.38%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.76%EV -5.58%E -2.94%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -7.79%E -1.95%K -2.60%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-31 12:45
Codere (IT)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -10.07%E -3.05%K -4.38%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.74%EV -6.57%E -3.50%K -7.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.49%EV -10.09%E -2.59%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-31 12:50
Fanatics🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.67%EV -10.07%E -3.05%K -4.38%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 48.31%EV -6.08%E -3.22%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -12.40%E -3.26%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-31 12:40
Bovada🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.32%EV -10.07%E -3.05%K -4.38%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.26%EV -9.06%E -4.95%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.42%EV -11.25%E -2.92%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-31 12:47
888sport🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -10.07%E -3.05%K -4.38%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.96%EV -9.06%E -4.95%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -13.55%E -3.61%K -4.93%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-31 12:45
888sport (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -10.07%E -3.05%K -4.38%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.96%EV -9.06%E -4.95%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -13.55%E -3.61%K -4.93%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-31 12:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.15%EV -10.07%E -3.05%K -4.38%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.96%EV -9.06%E -4.95%K -10.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -13.55%E -3.61%K -4.93%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-31 12:45
Coolbet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.38%EV -11.43%E -3.52%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.55%EV -5.58%E -2.94%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -7.79%E -1.95%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-31 12:45
Grosvenor🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -12.79%E -4.00%K -5.81%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.22%EV -4.09%E -2.12%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.30%EV -13.55%E -3.61%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-31 12:35
Virgin Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -12.79%E -4.00%K -5.81%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.22%EV -4.09%E -2.12%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.30%EV -13.55%E -3.61%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-31 12:35
LiveScore Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -12.79%E -4.00%K -5.81%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.22%EV -4.09%E -2.12%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.30%EV -13.55%E -3.61%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-31 12:35
TABtouch🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -12.79%E -4.00%K -5.81%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.22%EV -4.09%E -2.12%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.30%EV -13.55%E -3.61%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-31 12:35
Unibet (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -12.79%E -4.00%K -5.81%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.22%EV -4.09%E -2.12%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.30%EV -13.55%E -3.61%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-31 12:35
Casumo🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -12.79%E -4.00%K -5.81%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.22%EV -4.09%E -2.12%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.30%EV -13.55%E -3.61%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-31 12:35
Unibet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -12.79%E -4.00%K -5.81%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.22%EV -4.09%E -2.12%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.30%EV -13.55%E -3.61%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-31 12:35
Svenska Spel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -12.79%E -4.00%K -5.81%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.22%EV -4.09%E -2.12%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.30%EV -13.55%E -3.61%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-31 12:35
ATG (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -12.79%E -4.00%K -5.81%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.22%EV -4.09%E -2.12%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.30%EV -13.55%E -3.61%K -4.93%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-31 12:35
theScore Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.18%EV -12.79%E -4.00%K -5.81%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.28%EV -9.06%E -4.95%K -10.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -7.79%E -1.95%K -2.60%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-31 12:45
LeoVegas🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -12.79%E -4.00%K -5.81%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.58%EV -8.06%E -4.36%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.34%EV -11.25%E -2.92%K -3.95%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-31 12:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.82%EV -12.79%E -4.00%K -5.81%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.12%EV -8.06%E -4.36%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.06%EV -14.70%E -3.97%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-31 12:40
Neds🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.82%EV -12.79%E -4.00%K -5.81%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.12%EV -8.06%E -4.36%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.06%EV -14.70%E -3.97%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-31 12:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.82%EV -12.79%E -4.00%K -5.81%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.12%EV -8.06%E -4.36%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.06%EV -14.70%E -3.97%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-31 12:40
Coral🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.82%EV -12.79%E -4.00%K -5.81%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.12%EV -8.06%E -4.36%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.06%EV -14.70%E -3.97%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-31 12:40
betfred_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.83%EV -15.52%E -5.01%K -7.39%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 48.83%EV -9.06%E -4.95%K -10.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -7.79%E -1.95%K -2.60%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-31 12:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.27%EV -15.52%E -5.01%K -7.39%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.38%EV -8.06%E -4.36%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.35%EV -17.01%E -4.72%K -6.54%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-31 12:35
Bet Victor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 26.96%EV -15.52%E -5.01%K -7.39%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 49.16%EV -15.52%E -9.13%K -22.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.88%EV -19.31%E -5.52%K -7.73%G +0.000%19.7%2026-10-31 12:50
betano_uk🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 26.96%EV -15.52%E -5.01%K -7.39%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 49.16%EV -15.52%E -9.13%K -22.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.88%EV -19.31%E -5.52%K -7.73%G +0.000%19.7%2026-10-31 12:49
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 30.66%EV -25.06%E -9.11%K -14.32%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 46.85%EV -10.55%E -5.86%K -13.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.49%EV -13.55%E -3.61%K -4.93%G +0.000%18.6%2026-10-31 12:54
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.04%EV -26.42%E -9.78%K -15.54%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.25%EV -0.611%E -0.305%K -0.611%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.71%EV -19.31%E -5.52%K -7.73%G +0.000%15.6%2026-10-31 12:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.30%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%1.2%2026-10-31 12:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.30%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%1.2%2026-10-31 12:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.00I 25.00%NM 24.71%1.89I 52.91%NM 52.30%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.99%1.2%2026-10-31 12:55

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