The School of Odds
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SV Meppen v VfB Stuttgart II

Kickoff: 2026-10-10 12:00 UTC

Final: SV Meppen 1–1 VfB Stuttgart II

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SV Meppen (Local)

Prediction 44.12%2.27fair odd
EV -5.13%
Edge -2.39%
Kelly -4.46%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.10%44.09%44.02%45.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.062.052.1552.36%48.63%48.78%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfB Stuttgart II (Visit)

Prediction 31.36%3.19fair odd
EV -3.72%
Edge -1.21%
Kelly -1.80%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.29%31.41%31.53%32.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.852.853.0737.04%35.13%35.09%32.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.52%4.08fair odd
EV -6.84%
Edge -1.80%
Kelly -2.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.49%24.50%24.44%25.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.713.703.8029.41%26.99%27.03%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SV Meppen (Local): 44.12%; VfB Stuttgart II (Visit): 31.36%; Draw: 24.52%. For VfB Stuttgart II (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.19. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.07, with an expected value of -3.72%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.10%EV -5.13%E -2.39%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -10.62%E -3.73%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -6.84%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-29 02:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.31%EV -6.46%E -3.05%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.88%EV -9.68%E -3.36%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -9.29%E -2.51%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-05 12:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.31%EV -6.46%E -3.05%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.88%EV -9.68%E -3.36%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -9.29%E -2.51%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-05 12:05
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.31%EV -6.46%E -3.05%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.88%EV -9.68%E -3.36%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -9.29%E -2.51%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-05 12:05
Unibet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.31%EV -6.46%E -3.05%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.88%EV -9.68%E -3.36%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -9.29%E -2.51%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-05 12:05
LiveScore Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.31%EV -6.46%E -3.05%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.88%EV -9.68%E -3.36%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -9.29%E -2.51%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-05 12:04
Casumo🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.31%EV -6.46%E -3.05%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.88%EV -9.68%E -3.36%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -9.29%E -2.51%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-05 12:04
TABtouch🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.31%EV -6.46%E -3.05%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.88%EV -9.68%E -3.36%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -9.29%E -2.51%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-05 12:04
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.31%EV -6.46%E -3.05%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.88%EV -9.68%E -3.36%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -9.29%E -2.51%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-05 12:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.31%EV -6.46%E -3.05%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.88%EV -9.68%E -3.36%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -9.29%E -2.51%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-05 12:05
Pinnacle🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%3.07I 32.57%NM 30.50%EV -3.72%E -1.21%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 24.91%EV -7.82%E -2.08%K -2.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-03 18:10
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.92%EV -7.34%E -3.49%K -6.67%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -9.05%E -3.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -6.84%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-30 18:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.41%EV -8.22%E -3.95%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.29%EV -4.35%E -1.43%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.31%EV -10.52%E -2.88%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-03 18:01
LowVig.ag🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.41%EV -8.22%E -3.95%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.29%EV -4.35%E -1.43%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.31%EV -10.52%E -2.88%K -3.97%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-03 18:01
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.87%EV -8.22%E -3.95%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -9.05%E -3.12%K -4.77%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.66%EV -9.29%E -2.51%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-03 12:15
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.13%EV -9.55%E -4.66%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.74%EV -10.62%E -3.73%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.13%EV -8.07%E -2.15%K -2.93%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-05 12:22
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.88%EV -9.55%E -4.66%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.13%EV -12.19%E -4.35%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.99%EV -8.07%E -2.15%K -2.93%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-03 12:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -9.55%E -4.66%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -13.76%E -5.00%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.85%EV -8.07%E -2.15%K -2.93%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-05 12:00
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -9.55%E -4.66%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -13.76%E -5.00%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.85%EV -8.07%E -2.15%K -2.93%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-05 12:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -9.55%E -4.66%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -13.76%E -5.00%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.85%EV -8.07%E -2.15%K -2.93%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-05 12:01
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -9.55%E -4.66%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.52%EV -13.76%E -5.00%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.85%EV -8.07%E -2.15%K -2.93%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-05 12:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.30%EV -9.55%E -4.66%K -9.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.70%EV -12.19%E -4.35%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.00%EV -12.97%E -3.65%K -5.09%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-05 12:04
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.63%EV -11.75%E -5.88%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.88%EV -12.19%E -4.35%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -6.84%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-05 14:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.63%EV -11.75%E -5.88%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.88%EV -12.19%E -4.35%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -6.84%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-05 14:35
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.63%EV -11.75%E -5.88%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.88%EV -12.19%E -4.35%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -6.84%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 14:01
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.63%EV -11.75%E -5.88%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.88%EV -12.19%E -4.35%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -6.84%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 14:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.63%EV -11.75%E -5.88%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.88%EV -12.19%E -4.35%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -6.84%E -1.80%K -2.44%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-03 13:59
Suprabets🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.27%EV -11.75%E -5.88%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 30.64%EV -9.37%E -3.24%K -4.96%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 25.08%EV -13.46%E -3.81%K -5.32%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-03 12:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.81%EV -11.75%E -5.88%K -11.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.86%EV -13.76%E -5.00%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.34%EV -11.75%E -3.26%K -4.52%G +0.000%14.1%2026-09-22 06:54
1xBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 45.43%EV -12.19%E -6.13%K -12.32%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.65%EV -7.49%E -2.54%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 23.92%EV -7.33%E -1.94%K -2.64%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-05 10:40
SportsBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 44.36%EV -12.19%E -6.13%K -12.32%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.10%EV -13.76%E -5.00%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.54%EV -8.07%E -2.15%K -2.93%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-05 14:41
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 43.87%EV -13.96%E -7.16%K -14.69%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.69%EV -15.33%E -5.68%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.44%EV -14.20%E -4.06%K -5.68%G +0.000%16.9%2026-10-05 14:50
BoyleSports🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 44.07%EV -15.72%E -8.23%K -17.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.17%EV -15.33%E -5.68%K -9.02%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.76%EV -16.65%E -4.90%K -6.94%G +0.000%18.8%2026-10-03 12:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 33.41%1.39I 71.94%NM 33.41%1.40I 71.43%NM 33.17%115.3%2026-10-05 13:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 33.41%1.39I 71.94%NM 33.41%1.40I 71.43%NM 33.17%115.3%2026-10-05 13:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 33.41%1.39I 71.94%NM 33.41%1.40I 71.43%NM 33.17%115.3%2026-10-05 13:45