The School of Odds
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SV Meppen v SG Sonnenhof Großaspach

Kickoff: 2026-08-15 12:00 UTC

Final: SV Meppen 2–0 SG Sonnenhof Großaspach

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SV Meppen (Local)

Prediction 37.00%2.70fair odd
EV -2.70%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.71%36.97%37.00%38.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.522.502.6343.48%39.70%40.00%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (Visit)

Prediction 36.38%2.75fair odd
EV -3.96%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -2.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.58%36.34%36.34%37.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.482.482.6443.48%40.37%40.32%37.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.62%3.76fair odd
EV -3.62%
Edge -1.00%
Kelly -1.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.38%26.69%26.66%28.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.333.303.6233.33%30.00%30.30%27.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SV Meppen (Local): 37.00%; SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (Visit): 36.38%; Draw: 26.62%. For SV Meppen (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.70. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.63, with an expected value of -2.70%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Virgin Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.00%EV -2.70%E -1.03%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.11%EV -9.78%E -3.94%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -12.14%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 11:09
Grosvenor🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.00%EV -2.70%E -1.03%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.11%EV -9.78%E -3.94%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -12.14%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 11:09
Unibet (NL)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.00%EV -2.70%E -1.03%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.11%EV -9.78%E -3.94%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -12.14%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 11:09
TABtouch🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.00%EV -2.70%E -1.03%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.11%EV -9.78%E -3.94%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -12.14%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 11:10
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.00%EV -2.70%E -1.03%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.11%EV -9.78%E -3.94%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -12.14%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 11:09
Casumo🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.00%EV -2.70%E -1.03%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.11%EV -9.78%E -3.94%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -12.14%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 11:09
LiveScore Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.00%EV -2.70%E -1.03%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.11%EV -9.78%E -3.94%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -12.14%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 11:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.00%EV -2.70%E -1.03%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.11%EV -9.78%E -3.94%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -12.14%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 11:09
ATG (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.00%EV -2.70%E -1.03%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.11%EV -9.78%E -3.94%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -12.14%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 11:09
Svenska Spel🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.00%EV -2.70%E -1.03%K -1.65%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.11%EV -9.78%E -3.94%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -12.14%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-15 11:09
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.06%EV -3.81%E -1.46%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.77%EV -7.24%E -2.84%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -8.15%E -2.36%K -3.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 11:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.62%EV -3.81%E -1.46%K -2.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.32%EV -7.24%E -2.84%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -12.14%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-15 11:44
Pinnacle🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.20%EV -5.29%E -2.06%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.49%EV -5.05%E -1.94%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 26.31%EV -3.62%E -1.00%K -1.38%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 11:50
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -5.66%E -2.22%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.36%EV -7.24%E -2.84%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -9.48%E -2.79%K -3.95%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-14 13:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.71%EV -5.66%E -2.22%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.19%EV -13.42%E -5.64%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.10%EV -16.13%E -5.12%K -7.50%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-15 11:09
BetOnline.ag🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -7.51%E -3.00%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.58%EV -3.96%E -1.50%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 11:44
LowVig.ag🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -7.51%E -3.00%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.64I 37.88%NM 35.58%EV -3.96%E -1.50%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.84%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 11:44
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -7.51%E -3.00%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -5.42%E -2.08%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -6.82%E -1.95%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 11:50
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -7.51%E -3.00%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.26%EV -9.05%E -3.62%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -12.14%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-14 04:19
Bovada🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -7.51%E -3.00%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.11%EV -9.05%E -3.62%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.78%EV -13.47%E -4.15%K -5.99%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-15 11:48
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -7.51%E -3.00%K -5.00%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -12.69%E -5.29%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -9.48%E -2.79%K -3.95%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-15 09:04
Suprabets🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 37.02%EV -8.99%E -3.65%K -6.15%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 36.58%EV -9.42%E -3.78%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -8.15%E -2.36%K -3.33%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-15 11:50
Fanatics🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -9.36%E -3.82%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.05%E -3.62%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -9.48%E -2.79%K -3.95%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-15 11:45
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.88%EV -9.36%E -3.82%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.14%EV -9.05%E -3.62%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.97%EV -10.81%E -3.23%K -4.60%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 11:49
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.76%EV -9.36%E -3.82%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.76%EV -10.87%E -4.44%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -9.48%E -2.79%K -3.95%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-14 13:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.19%EV -9.36%E -3.82%K -6.45%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -12.69%E -5.29%K -9.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -12.14%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-15 11:50
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -11.21%E -4.67%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -9.05%E -3.62%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -4.15%E -1.15%K -1.60%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-15 11:44
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.38%EV -11.21%E -4.67%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.16%EV -14.51%E -6.18%K -10.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.46%EV -12.14%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%14.5%2026-08-15 09:04
Sky Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.25%EV -11.21%E -4.67%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.56%EV -13.42%E -5.64%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.19%EV -14.80%E -4.63%K -6.73%G +0.000%14.9%2026-08-14 05:29
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 36.75%EV -11.95%E -5.02%K -8.66%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 36.75%EV -13.42%E -5.64%K -9.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.50%EV -12.14%E -3.68%K -5.28%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-14 05:29
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 36.14%EV -14.91%E -6.48%K -11.47%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 36.14%EV -16.33%E -7.10%K -12.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.71%EV -20.13%E -6.71%K -10.06%G +0.000%20.3%2026-08-15 11:49
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 36.14%EV -14.91%E -6.48%K -11.47%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 36.14%EV -16.33%E -7.10%K -12.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.71%EV -20.13%E -6.71%K -10.06%G +0.000%20.3%2026-08-15 11:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.73%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.46%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.80%0.8%2026-08-15 11:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.73%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.46%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.80%0.8%2026-08-15 11:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.73%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.46%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.80%0.8%2026-08-15 11:55