The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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SSV Ulm 1846 v TSG Hoffenheim II

Kickoff: 2026-03-03 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SSV Ulm 1846 (Local)

Prediction 42.19%2.37fair odd
EV -2.96%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -2.27%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.84%42.27%42.13%43.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.202.202.3050.00%45.44%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

TSG Hoffenheim II (Visit)

Prediction 32.75%3.05fair odd
EV -1.74%
Edge -0.580%
Kelly -0.870%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.19%32.62%32.69%34.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.732.773.0038.46%36.57%36.04%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.05%3.99fair odd
EV -3.54%
Edge -0.920%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.20%25.11%25.18%26.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.593.603.8531.25%27.82%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SSV Ulm 1846 (Local): 42.19%; TSG Hoffenheim II (Visit): 32.75%; Draw: 25.05%. For TSG Hoffenheim II (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.05. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.00, with an expected value of -1.74%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.93%EV -2.96%E -1.29%K -2.27%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.92%EV -13.86%E -5.27%K -8.50%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.16%EV -8.55%E -2.34%K -3.23%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-03 17:31
BetOnline.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.14%EV -3.80%E -1.67%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.57%EV -3.38%E -1.14%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.29%EV -4.80%E -1.26%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-03 17:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.14%EV -3.80%E -1.67%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.57%EV -3.38%E -1.14%K -1.73%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.29%EV -4.80%E -1.26%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-03 17:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.84%EV -3.80%E -1.67%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.93%EV -14.84%E -5.71%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -9.81%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-03 17:31
TABtouch🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.84%EV -3.80%E -1.67%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.93%EV -14.84%E -5.71%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -9.81%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-03 17:31
Unibet (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.84%EV -3.80%E -1.67%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.93%EV -14.84%E -5.71%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -9.81%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-03 17:25
Grosvenor🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.84%EV -3.80%E -1.67%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.93%EV -14.84%E -5.71%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -9.81%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-03 17:30
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.84%EV -3.80%E -1.67%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.93%EV -14.84%E -5.71%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -9.81%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-03 17:31
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.84%EV -3.80%E -1.67%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.93%EV -14.84%E -5.71%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -9.81%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-03 17:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.84%EV -3.80%E -1.67%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.93%EV -14.84%E -5.71%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -9.81%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-03 17:30
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.84%EV -3.80%E -1.67%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.93%EV -14.84%E -5.71%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -9.81%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-03 17:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.84%EV -3.80%E -1.67%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.93%EV -14.84%E -5.71%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -9.81%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-03 17:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 39.84%EV -3.80%E -1.67%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.93%EV -14.84%E -5.71%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.23%EV -9.81%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-03 17:30
Pinnacle🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.57%EV -5.49%E -2.45%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.66%EV -4.36%E -1.49%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.77%EV -3.54%E -0.920%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-03 17:50
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.42%EV -7.18%E -3.26%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.24%EV -3.54%E -0.920%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-03 17:40
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.15%EV -7.18%E -3.26%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.12%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -6.05%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-03 17:40
Coolbet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.15%EV -7.18%E -3.26%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.12%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.73%EV -6.05%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-03 17:45
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.47%EV -7.18%E -3.26%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.18%EV -9.93%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.35%EV -9.81%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-03 17:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.09%EV -8.02%E -3.68%K -6.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.14%EV -8.55%E -2.34%K -3.23%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-03 17:40
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.52%EV -9.29%E -4.32%K -8.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -1.74%E -0.580%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -7.30%E -1.97%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-03 17:35
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.37%EV -9.29%E -4.32%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.97%EV -6.65%E -2.33%K -3.60%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.66%EV -11.06%E -3.12%K -4.34%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-03 17:55
Suprabets🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.31%EV -9.29%E -4.32%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.49%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 25.20%EV -9.56%E -2.65%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.9%2026-03-03 17:32
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.28%EV -9.29%E -4.32%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.47%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -9.81%E -2.72%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.0%2026-03-03 17:25
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -9.29%E -4.32%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.35%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.52%EV -11.06%E -3.12%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-03 17:56
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -9.29%E -4.32%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -14.82%E -4.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-03 17:45
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -9.29%E -4.32%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -14.82%E -4.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-03 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -9.29%E -4.32%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -14.82%E -4.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-03 17:56
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -9.29%E -4.32%K -8.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -8.29%E -2.96%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -14.82%E -4.36%K -6.17%G +0.000%11.6%2026-03-03 17:55
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.64%EV -11.40%E -5.43%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.16%EV -11.57%E -4.28%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.20%EV -7.30%E -1.97%K -2.70%G +0.000%11.7%2026-03-03 17:45
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.67%EV -11.40%E -5.43%K -10.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.82%EV -9.93%E -3.61%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.52%EV -17.32%E -5.25%K -7.53%G +0.000%14.3%2026-03-03 17:45
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.72%EV -15.62%E -7.81%K -15.62%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.86%EV -14.84%E -5.71%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.41%EV -12.31%E -3.52%K -4.92%G +0.000%17.0%2026-03-03 17:45
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 41.77%EV -15.62%E -7.81%K -15.62%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 32.13%EV -14.84%E -5.71%K -9.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.10%EV -19.83%E -6.20%K -9.01%G +0.000%19.7%2026-03-03 17:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.33%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.73%1.0%2026-03-03 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.33%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.73%1.0%2026-03-03 17:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.33%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.95%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.73%1.0%2026-03-03 17:55