The School of Odds
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SG Sonnenhof Großaspach v SC Fortuna Köln

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 14:30 UTC

Final: SG Sonnenhof Großaspach 1–0 SC Fortuna Köln

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (Local)

Prediction 37.21%2.69fair odd
EV +0.087%
Edge +0.033%
Kelly +0.052%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.39%37.10%37.43%38.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.412.402.6944.44%41.53%41.67%37.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Fortuna Köln (Visit)

Prediction 35.91%2.78fair odd
EV -3.76%
Edge -1.40%
Kelly -2.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.95%35.95%35.93%36.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.572.602.6842.02%38.93%38.46%37.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.88%3.72fair odd
EV -5.91%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -2.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.92%26.95%26.64%28.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.283.303.5033.33%30.52%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (Local): 37.21%; SC Fortuna Köln (Visit): 35.91%; Draw: 26.88%. For SG Sonnenhof Großaspach (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.688. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.690, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.087%.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 35.39%EV +0.087%E +0.033%K +0.052%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.61%EV -6.64%E -2.55%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.00%EV -8.59%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-08 14:15
Tipico (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -5.12%E -2.01%K -3.30%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -8.43%E -3.31%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -5.91%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 14:19
BetOnline.ag🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 36.96%EV -5.49%E -2.16%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.02%EV -3.76%E -1.40%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -9.94%E -2.97%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 14:19
LowVig.ag🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 36.96%EV -5.49%E -2.16%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.02%EV -3.76%E -1.40%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.02%EV -9.94%E -2.97%K -4.23%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-08 14:19
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -6.98%E -2.79%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.64%E -2.55%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -5.91%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 14:20
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -8.84%E -3.61%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -6.64%E -2.55%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -5.91%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-08 13:45
Fanatics🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.55%EV -8.84%E -3.61%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.39%EV -6.64%E -2.55%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -8.59%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-08 14:20
Suprabets🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.86%EV -10.70%E -4.46%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.68%EV -5.92%E -2.26%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 27.45%EV -11.01%E -3.33%K -4.77%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 14:23
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -10.70%E -4.46%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -10.23%E -4.09%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -5.91%E -1.69%K -2.36%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-06 12:30
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.73%EV -10.70%E -4.46%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.83%EV -6.64%E -2.55%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -11.28%E -3.42%K -4.91%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 14:15
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -10.70%E -4.46%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -10.23%E -4.09%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -8.59%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 11:35
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -10.70%E -4.46%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -10.23%E -4.09%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -8.59%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 13:48
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -10.70%E -4.46%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -10.23%E -4.09%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -8.59%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-08 14:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.49%EV -10.70%E -4.46%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.95%EV -4.84%E -1.83%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -15.32%E -4.86%K -7.12%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-05 19:40
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.49%EV -10.70%E -4.46%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.95%EV -4.84%E -1.83%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -15.32%E -4.86%K -7.12%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-05 19:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.49%EV -10.70%E -4.46%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.95%EV -4.84%E -1.83%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -15.32%E -4.86%K -7.12%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-05 19:40
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.49%EV -10.70%E -4.46%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.95%EV -4.84%E -1.83%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -15.32%E -4.86%K -7.12%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-05 19:40
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.49%EV -10.70%E -4.46%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.95%EV -4.84%E -1.83%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -15.32%E -4.86%K -7.12%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-05 19:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.49%EV -10.70%E -4.46%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.95%EV -4.84%E -1.83%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -15.32%E -4.86%K -7.12%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-05 19:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.49%EV -10.70%E -4.46%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.95%EV -4.84%E -1.83%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -15.32%E -4.86%K -7.12%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-05 19:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.49%EV -10.70%E -4.46%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.95%EV -4.84%E -1.83%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -15.32%E -4.86%K -7.12%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-05 19:45
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.49%EV -10.70%E -4.46%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.95%EV -4.84%E -1.83%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -15.32%E -4.86%K -7.12%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-05 19:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.49%EV -10.70%E -4.46%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.95%EV -4.84%E -1.83%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -15.32%E -4.86%K -7.12%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-05 19:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.49%EV -10.70%E -4.46%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.95%EV -4.84%E -1.83%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -15.32%E -4.86%K -7.12%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-05 19:45
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.47%EV -10.70%E -4.46%K -7.64%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.27%EV -8.43%E -3.31%K -5.44%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.25%EV -11.28%E -3.42%K -4.91%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-08 14:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.43%EV -11.45%E -4.81%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.36%EV -12.02%E -4.91%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.20%EV -8.59%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-08 14:20
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.81%EV -14.42%E -6.27%K -11.09%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.23%EV -13.82%E -5.76%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.96%EV -9.94%E -2.97%K -4.23%G +0.000%15.0%2026-08-08 11:34
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 37.51%EV -14.42%E -6.27%K -11.09%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.95%EV -13.82%E -5.76%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.54%EV -12.63%E -3.89%K -5.61%G +0.000%15.9%2026-08-06 12:30
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 38.18%EV -16.28%E -7.24%K -13.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 35.79%EV -13.82%E -5.76%K -9.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.03%EV -11.28%E -3.42%K -4.91%G +0.000%16.4%2026-08-08 14:24
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 37.10%EV -16.28%E -7.24%K -13.03%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 35.07%EV -14.54%E -6.11%K -10.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.83%EV -19.35%E -6.45%K -9.67%G +0.000%19.8%2026-08-08 14:24
betano_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 37.10%EV -16.28%E -7.24%K -13.03%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 35.07%EV -14.54%E -6.11%K -10.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 27.83%EV -19.35%E -6.45%K -9.67%G +0.000%19.8%2026-08-08 14:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 37.77%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.57%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.66%1.8%2026-08-08 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 37.77%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.57%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.66%1.8%2026-08-08 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 37.77%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.57%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.66%1.8%2026-08-08 14:25

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