The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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SC Fortuna Köln v VfB Stuttgart II

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 17:00 UTC

Final: SC Fortuna Köln 0–1 VfB Stuttgart II

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Fortuna Köln (Local)

Prediction 43.98%2.27fair odd
EV -4.12%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -3.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.97%43.98%43.80%45.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.102.102.1851.28%47.60%47.62%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfB Stuttgart II (Visit)

Prediction 30.54%3.27fair odd
EV -2.29%
Edge -0.715%
Kelly -1.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.19%30.45%30.66%32.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.892.883.2038.17%34.56%34.72%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.48%3.92fair odd
EV -3.17%
Edge -0.834%
Kelly -1.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.40%25.57%25.55%28.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.513.503.8035.71%28.50%28.57%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SC Fortuna Köln (Local): 43.98%; VfB Stuttgart II (Visit): 30.54%; Draw: 25.48%. For VfB Stuttgart II (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.27. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.20, with an expected value of -2.29%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.25%EV -4.12%E -1.89%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.91%EV -6.87%E -2.25%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -6.99%E -1.92%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-16 16:55
LowVig.ag🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.25%EV -4.12%E -1.89%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.91%EV -6.87%E -2.25%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -6.99%E -1.92%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-16 16:55
Unibet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.55%EV -5.00%E -2.31%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.91%EV -12.06%E -4.19%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.27%E -2.30%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-11 17:20
Casumo🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.55%EV -5.00%E -2.31%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.91%EV -12.06%E -4.19%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.27%E -2.30%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-11 17:19
Grosvenor🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.55%EV -5.00%E -2.31%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.91%EV -12.06%E -4.19%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.27%E -2.30%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-11 17:19
TABtouch🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.55%EV -5.00%E -2.31%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.91%EV -12.06%E -4.19%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.27%E -2.30%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-11 17:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.55%EV -5.00%E -2.31%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.91%EV -12.06%E -4.19%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.27%E -2.30%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-11 17:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.55%EV -5.00%E -2.31%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.91%EV -12.06%E -4.19%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.27%E -2.30%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-11 17:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.55%EV -5.00%E -2.31%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.91%EV -12.06%E -4.19%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.27%E -2.30%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-11 17:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.55%EV -5.00%E -2.31%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.91%EV -12.06%E -4.19%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.27%E -2.30%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-11 17:19
ATG (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.55%EV -5.00%E -2.31%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.91%EV -12.06%E -4.19%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.27%E -2.30%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-11 17:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -5.44%E -2.53%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -16.03%E -5.83%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -10.81%E -3.09%K -4.33%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-16 16:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -5.44%E -2.53%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -16.03%E -5.83%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -10.81%E -3.09%K -4.33%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-16 16:35
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -5.44%E -2.53%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -16.03%E -5.83%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -10.81%E -3.09%K -4.33%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-16 16:35
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.73%EV -5.44%E -2.53%K -4.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.63%EV -16.03%E -5.83%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.64%EV -10.81%E -3.09%K -4.33%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-16 16:35
Pinnacle🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.49%EV -5.88%E -2.75%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.85%EV -2.59%E -0.813%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.66%EV -5.46%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-16 16:55
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.78%EV -6.76%E -3.19%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.46%EV -9.92%E -3.36%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.75%EV -4.44%E -1.18%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-16 16:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.16%EV -7.64%E -3.64%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.44%EV -9.92%E -3.36%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.40%EV -3.17%E -0.834%K -1.13%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-16 16:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -7.64%E -3.64%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -8.39%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.27%E -2.30%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-16 16:55
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -7.64%E -3.64%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -8.39%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.27%E -2.30%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-16 16:50
PlayUp🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -7.64%E -3.64%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -11.45%E -3.95%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -10.81%E -3.09%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-16 16:55
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -7.64%E -3.64%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -12.06%E -4.19%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -10.81%E -3.09%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-16 16:40
LeoVegas🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -7.64%E -3.64%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.31%EV -12.06%E -4.19%K -6.41%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -10.81%E -3.09%K -4.33%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-16 16:55
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -7.64%E -3.64%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -8.39%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -15.91%E -4.82%K -6.92%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-16 16:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -7.64%E -3.64%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -8.39%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -15.91%E -4.82%K -6.92%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-16 16:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.80%EV -7.64%E -3.64%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.96%EV -8.39%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -15.91%E -4.82%K -6.92%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-16 16:55
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.79%EV -7.64%E -3.64%K -6.94%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.53%EV -12.97%E -4.55%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.68%EV -10.81%E -3.09%K -4.33%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-16 16:49
1xBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.47%EV -8.52%E -4.09%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 30.55%EV -9.62%E -3.25%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 25.98%EV -11.32%E -3.25%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-16 16:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.54%EV -8.52%E -4.09%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.18%EV -16.03%E -5.83%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -10.81%E -3.09%K -4.33%G +0.000%13.0%2026-10-11 17:19
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.56%EV -9.83%E -4.80%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.19%EV -2.29%E -0.715%K -1.04%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -5.72%E -1.55%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-16 16:50
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -9.83%E -4.80%K -9.37%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -8.39%E -2.80%K -4.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -8.27%E -2.30%K -3.18%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-16 16:50
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.93%EV -9.83%E -4.80%K -9.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.05%EV -11.45%E -3.95%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.02%EV -8.27%E -2.30%K -3.18%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-16 16:40
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -9.83%E -4.80%K -9.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -11.45%E -3.95%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -13.36%E -3.93%K -5.57%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-16 16:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -9.83%E -4.80%K -9.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -11.45%E -3.95%K -6.03%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -13.36%E -3.93%K -5.57%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-16 16:55
SportsBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.09%EV -11.15%E -5.52%K -10.94%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.54%EV -12.97%E -4.55%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.37%EV -15.91%E -4.82%K -6.92%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-16 16:55
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.19%EV -12.03%E -6.02%K -12.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.41%EV -16.03%E -5.83%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.40%EV -13.36%E -3.93%K -5.57%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-16 14:55
BoyleSports🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 43.56%EV -14.23%E -7.30%K -14.98%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 31.46%EV -17.55%E -6.50%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.98%EV -13.36%E -3.93%K -5.57%G +0.000%17.7%2026-10-16 16:44
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 42.89%EV -14.23%E -7.30%K -14.98%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 30.98%EV -17.55%E -6.50%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.14%EV -18.46%E -5.77%K -8.39%G +0.000%19.6%2026-10-16 16:54
betano_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 40.97%EV -14.23%E -7.30%K -14.98%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 30.49%EV -20.00%E -7.63%K -12.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 28.53%EV -28.65%E -10.23%K -15.92%G +0.000%25.2%2026-10-16 16:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 43.88%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.25%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.87%1.7%2026-10-16 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 43.88%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.25%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.87%1.7%2026-10-16 16:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 43.88%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.25%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.87%1.7%2026-10-16 16:55