The School of Odds
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SC Fortuna Köln v 1. FC Saarbrücken

Kickoff: 2026-10-10 12:00 UTC

Final: SC Fortuna Köln 0–0 1. FC Saarbrücken

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

37 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Fortuna Köln (Local)

Prediction 29.92%3.34fair odd
EV +1.73%
Edge +0.510%
Kelly +0.722%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.30%29.88%29.68%31.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.962.903.4035.71%33.78%34.48%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Saarbrücken (Visit)

Prediction 44.44%2.25fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.73%44.57%44.77%47.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.072.052.2052.36%48.32%48.78%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.64%3.90fair odd
EV -5.13%
Edge -1.39%
Kelly -1.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.21%25.55%25.55%26.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.523.503.7029.85%28.43%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SC Fortuna Köln (Local): 29.92%; 1. FC Saarbrücken (Visit): 44.44%; Draw: 25.64%. For SC Fortuna Köln (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.34. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.73%.

Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV +1.73%E +0.510%K +0.722%G +0.013%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -13.35%E -6.84%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-03 21:50
Pinnacle🎯3.18I 31.45%NM 29.45%EV -4.85%E -1.52%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.24%EV -8.01%E -3.87%K -7.49%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.31%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-03 18:10
BetOnline.ag🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.38%EV -5.75%E -1.82%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.92%EV -8.46%E -4.11%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -7.69%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-03 18:29
LowVig.ag🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.38%EV -5.75%E -1.82%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.92%EV -8.46%E -4.11%K -7.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -7.69%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-03 18:30
Fanatics🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.24%E -2.34%K -3.45%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -8.90%E -4.34%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -7.69%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-05 12:04
1xBet🎯3.09I 32.36%NM 29.26%EV -7.54%E -2.44%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.20%EV -11.12%E -5.56%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 25.54%EV -9.23%E -2.61%K -3.63%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-05 12:30
Suprabets🎯3.02I 33.11%NM 29.25%EV -9.64%E -3.19%K -4.77%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 44.84%EV -12.46%E -6.32%K -12.84%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 25.91%EV -12.57%E -3.69%K -5.21%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-03 18:09
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -10.24%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -11.12%E -5.56%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -7.69%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-05 11:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -10.24%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -11.12%E -5.56%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -7.69%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-05 12:01
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -10.24%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -11.12%E -5.56%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -7.69%E -2.14%K -2.96%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-05 12:01
888sport🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.86%EV -10.24%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93%EV -13.35%E -6.84%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-04 21:00
888sport (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.86%EV -10.24%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93%EV -13.35%E -6.84%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-04 21:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 29.86%EV -10.24%E -3.41%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93%EV -13.35%E -6.84%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -5.13%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-04 21:00
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.80%EV -11.73%E -3.98%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.86%EV -5.79%E -2.73%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -11.54%E -3.34%K -4.71%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-05 12:00
Betsson🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.80%EV -11.73%E -3.98%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.86%EV -5.79%E -2.73%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.34%EV -11.54%E -3.34%K -4.71%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-05 12:00
Bovada🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.58%EV -11.73%E -3.98%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.01%EV -8.90%E -4.34%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.41%EV -8.98%E -2.53%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-05 12:42
TABtouch🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -13.23%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -2.24%E -1.02%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -11.54%E -3.34%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-05 12:25
Casumo🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -13.23%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -2.24%E -1.02%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -11.54%E -3.34%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-05 12:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -13.23%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -2.24%E -1.02%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -11.54%E -3.34%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-05 12:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -13.23%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -2.24%E -1.02%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -11.54%E -3.34%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-05 12:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -13.23%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -2.24%E -1.02%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -11.54%E -3.34%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-05 12:25
Grosvenor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -13.23%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -2.24%E -1.02%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -11.54%E -3.34%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-05 12:25
Unibet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -13.23%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -2.24%E -1.02%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -11.54%E -3.34%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-05 12:24
Virgin Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -13.23%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -2.24%E -1.02%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -11.54%E -3.34%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-05 12:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -13.23%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -2.24%E -1.02%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -11.54%E -3.34%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-05 12:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.66%EV -13.23%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.73%EV -2.24%E -1.02%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -11.54%E -3.34%K -4.71%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-05 12:25
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -13.23%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -4.46%E -2.07%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-05 12:01
Codere (IT)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.10%EV -13.23%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 42.75%EV -6.24%E -2.96%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.15%EV -11.54%E -3.34%K -4.71%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-05 13:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.50%EV -13.23%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.23%EV -11.12%E -5.56%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.27%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-05 12:00
Coral🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.50%EV -13.23%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.23%EV -11.12%E -5.56%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.27%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-05 12:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.50%EV -13.23%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.23%EV -11.12%E -5.56%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.27%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-05 12:01
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.50%EV -13.23%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.23%EV -11.12%E -5.56%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.27%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-05 12:00
SportsBet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.43%EV -13.23%E -4.56%K -6.96%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 44.35%EV -11.57%E -5.81%K -11.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.22%EV -10.26%E -2.93%K -4.10%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-05 11:59
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 29.81%EV -13.83%E -4.80%K -7.35%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 44.94%EV -15.12%E -7.92%K -16.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.25%EV -12.82%E -3.77%K -5.34%G +0.000%16.5%2026-10-03 12:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.70%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.30%EV -8.90%E -4.34%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.00%EV -8.98%E -2.53%K -3.52%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-05 12:01
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 41.84%EV -5.79%E -2.73%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.48%EV -14.10%E -4.21%K -6.00%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-05 12:25
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.68%EV -16.22%E -5.79%K -9.01%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 44.05%EV -13.35%E -6.84%K -14.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.27%EV -12.82%E -3.77%K -5.34%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-05 12:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.18%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%8.8%2026-10-05 13:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.18%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%8.8%2026-10-05 13:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.18%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%8.8%2026-10-05 11:55