The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Rot-Weiss Essen v Jahn Regensburg

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 17:00 UTC

Final: Rot-Weiss Essen 1–0 Jahn Regensburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

43 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rot-Weiss Essen (Local)

Prediction 49.66%2.01fair odd
EV -5.65%
Edge -2.97%
Kelly -6.28%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.53%49.85%49.72%52.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.821.851.9058.82%54.83%54.05%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jahn Regensburg (Visit)

Prediction 26.88%3.72fair odd
EV +4.84%
Edge +1.24%
Kelly +1.67%
Growth +0.081%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.00%26.66%26.91%27.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.463.453.9032.26%28.92%28.99%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.46%4.26fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -0.519%
Kelly -0.683%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.61%23.50%23.37%25.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.743.704.1729.41%26.72%27.03%23.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rot-Weiss Essen (Local): 49.66%; Jahn Regensburg (Visit): 26.88%; Draw: 23.46%. For Jahn Regensburg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.72. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.84%.

Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -10.62%E -5.90%K -13.27%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV +4.84%E +1.24%K +1.67%G +0.081%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -8.50%E -2.18%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 15:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.49%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.08%EV -1.88%E -0.516%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -15.54%E -4.32%K -5.98%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-23 15:22
LiveScore Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.49%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.08%EV -1.88%E -0.516%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -15.54%E -4.32%K -5.98%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-23 15:22
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.49%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.08%EV -1.88%E -0.516%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -15.54%E -4.32%K -5.98%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-23 15:22
Unibet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.49%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.08%EV -1.88%E -0.516%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -15.54%E -4.32%K -5.98%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-23 15:21
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.49%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.08%EV -1.88%E -0.516%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -15.54%E -4.32%K -5.98%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-23 15:21
Virgin Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.49%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.08%EV -1.88%E -0.516%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -15.54%E -4.32%K -5.98%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-23 15:22
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.49%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.08%EV -1.88%E -0.516%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -15.54%E -4.32%K -5.98%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-23 15:21
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.49%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.08%EV -1.88%E -0.516%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -15.54%E -4.32%K -5.98%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-23 15:21
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.49%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.08%EV -1.88%E -0.516%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -15.54%E -4.32%K -5.98%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-23 15:21
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.49%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.08%EV -1.88%E -0.516%K -0.710%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -15.54%E -4.32%K -5.98%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-23 15:22
Pinnacle🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.10%EV -7.64%E -4.11%K -8.88%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.11%EV -2.15%E -0.591%K -0.815%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 22.79%EV -2.16%E -0.519%K -0.683%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-23 15:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.37%EV -13.10%E -7.49%K -17.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -3.23%E -0.896%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.66%EV -10.84%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-23 15:06
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.21%EV -13.10%E -7.49%K -17.47%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.89%EV -3.23%E -0.896%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.90%EV -12.02%E -3.20%K -4.37%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-23 15:07
1xBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.41%EV -12.60%E -7.16%K -16.58%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.27%EV -3.76%E -1.05%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 23.32%EV -8.97%E -2.31%K -3.11%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-23 13:25
PlayUp🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.33%EV -10.62%E -5.90%K -13.27%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.52%EV -4.57%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -12.02%E -3.20%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-23 15:18
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.57%EV -11.61%E -6.52%K -14.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.85%EV -4.57%E -1.29%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.58%EV -19.06%E -5.52%K -7.78%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-23 15:22
LowVig.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.82%EV -6.65%E -3.53%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.91%E -1.69%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 15:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.82%EV -6.65%E -3.53%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.91%E -1.69%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 15:25
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -5.91%E -1.69%K -2.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-23 15:50
Bovada🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -10.62%E -5.90%K -13.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.15%EV -7.26%E -2.10%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.74%EV -10.84%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-23 13:25
SportsBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 50.60%EV -14.59%E -8.48%K -20.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.23%EV -7.26%E -2.10%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.18%EV -15.54%E -4.32%K -5.98%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-23 15:06
Unibet (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.88%EV -5.65%E -2.97%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -8.50%E -2.18%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-23 13:52
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -7.14%E -3.82%K -8.21%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-23 13:25
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.11%EV -9.13%E -4.99%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.97%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-23 14:07
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.65%EV -12.11%E -6.84%K -15.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.99%EV -8.50%E -2.18%K -2.93%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-23 13:36
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 49.64%EV -13.10%E -7.49%K -17.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.55%EV -8.60%E -2.53%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.82%EV -17.88%E -5.11%K -7.15%G +0.000%15.1%2026-10-23 14:13
Winamax (DE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.23%EV -6.65%E -3.53%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -9.95%E -2.97%K -4.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.14%EV -6.15%E -1.54%K -2.05%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-23 13:54
Codere (IT)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.79%EV -6.65%E -3.53%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.38%EV -9.95%E -2.97%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.83%EV -9.67%E -2.51%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-23 14:07
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.64%EV -6.65%E -3.53%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.30%EV -9.95%E -2.97%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.06%EV -10.84%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-23 13:54
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.64%EV -6.65%E -3.53%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.30%EV -9.95%E -2.97%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.06%EV -10.84%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-23 13:53
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.53%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -11.29%E -3.42%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.26%EV -13.19%E -3.57%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-23 13:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.53%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -11.29%E -3.42%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.26%EV -13.19%E -3.57%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-23 13:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.53%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.21%EV -11.29%E -3.42%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.26%EV -13.19%E -3.57%K -4.89%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-23 13:26
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.80%EV -9.13%E -4.99%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -11.29%E -3.42%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -13.19%E -3.57%K -4.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-23 13:26
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.80%EV -9.13%E -4.99%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -11.29%E -3.42%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -13.19%E -3.57%K -4.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-23 13:25
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.80%EV -9.13%E -4.99%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -11.29%E -3.42%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -13.19%E -3.57%K -4.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-23 13:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.80%EV -9.13%E -4.99%K -11.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -11.29%E -3.42%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -13.19%E -3.57%K -4.89%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-23 13:25
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.37%EV -10.62%E -5.90%K -13.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -11.29%E -3.42%K -4.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -12.02%E -3.20%K -4.37%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-23 13:36
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.64%EV -8.14%E -4.40%K -9.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.69%EV -12.64%E -3.89%K -5.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.68%EV -10.84%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-23 13:54
betano_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 48.90%EV -15.58%E -9.17%K -22.26%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 26.65%EV -16.13%E -5.17%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.45%EV -20.23%E -5.95%K -8.43%G +0.000%20.3%2026-10-23 14:25
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 48.90%EV -15.58%E -9.17%K -22.26%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 26.65%EV -16.13%E -5.17%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.45%EV -20.23%E -5.95%K -8.43%G +0.000%20.3%2026-10-23 14:26
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 49.67%EV -14.09%E -8.15%K -19.31%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.72%EV -16.67%E -5.38%K -7.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.61%EV -10.84%E -2.85%K -3.87%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-23 15:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.88I 53.19%NM 51.85%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.37%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.78%2.6%2026-10-23 15:59
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.88I 53.19%NM 51.85%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.37%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.78%2.6%2026-10-23 15:59
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.88I 53.19%NM 51.85%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.37%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.78%2.6%2026-10-23 15:59