The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Rot-Weiss Essen v Alemannia Aachen

Kickoff: 2026-11-07 13:03 UTC

Final: Rot-Weiss Essen 1–0 Alemannia Aachen

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

41 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Rot-Weiss Essen (Local)

Prediction 50.19%1.99fair odd
EV -4.13%
Edge -2.16%
Kelly -4.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.20%50.43%50.21%52.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.841.831.9158.82%54.43%54.64%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Alemannia Aachen (Visit)

Prediction 25.81%3.87fair odd
EV +3.25%
Edge +0.811%
Kelly +1.08%
Growth +0.035%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.33%25.61%25.86%27.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.483.504.0031.25%28.77%28.57%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.99%4.17fair odd
EV -1.38%
Edge -0.336%
Kelly -0.444%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.91%23.97%23.93%25.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.773.754.1127.78%26.49%26.67%24.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Rot-Weiss Essen (Local): 50.19%; Alemannia Aachen (Visit): 25.81%; Draw: 23.99%. For Alemannia Aachen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.87. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.25%.

Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.73%EV -11.16%E -6.30%K -14.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV +3.25%E +0.811%K +1.08%G +0.035%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -6.42%E -1.65%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-07 12:55
Pinnacle🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.10%EV -8.15%E -4.45%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.70%EV -0.368%E -0.095%K -0.129%G +0.000%4.11I 24.33%NM 23.20%EV -1.38%E -0.336%K -0.444%G +0.000%4.9%2026-11-07 12:45
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.39%EV -12.16%E -6.95%K -16.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -4.50%E -1.22%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -11.22%E -3.03%K -4.16%G +0.000%11.2%2026-11-07 12:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.46%EV -6.64%E -3.57%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -7.08%E -1.97%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -4.02%E -1.01%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-07 12:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.46%EV -6.64%E -3.57%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -7.08%E -1.97%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -4.02%E -1.01%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-07 12:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.96%EV -7.64%E -4.15%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -7.08%E -1.97%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.51%EV -10.02%E -2.67%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-07 12:55
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -7.14%E -3.86%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -7.08%E -1.97%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -11.22%E -3.03%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-07 12:50
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -7.14%E -3.86%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -7.08%E -1.97%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -11.22%E -3.03%K -4.16%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-07 12:55
PlayUp🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.34%EV -9.65%E -5.36%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.17%EV -7.08%E -1.97%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -11.22%E -3.03%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.4%2026-11-07 12:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.04%EV -12.16%E -6.95%K -16.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.81%EV -7.08%E -1.97%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.14%EV -11.22%E -3.03%K -4.16%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-07 12:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.13%EV -6.64%E -3.57%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -8.37%E -2.36%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.61%EV -5.22%E -1.32%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-11-07 12:55
Codere (IT)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.64%EV -7.14%E -3.86%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.87%EV -8.37%E -2.36%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -10.02%E -2.67%K -3.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-11-07 12:55
Bovada🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.72%EV -8.65%E -4.75%K -10.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.49%EV -8.37%E -2.36%K -3.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.79%EV -12.42%E -3.40%K -4.69%G +0.000%10.5%2026-11-07 12:54
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.22%EV -7.14%E -3.86%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -9.66%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -4.02%E -1.01%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-07 12:46
Fanatics🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.08%EV -5.13%E -2.72%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.50%EV -9.66%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -8.82%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.8%2026-11-07 12:45
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -9.65%E -5.36%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -9.66%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -4.02%E -1.01%K -1.34%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-07 12:45
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.30%EV -9.65%E -5.36%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -9.66%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -8.82%E -2.32%K -3.15%G +0.000%10.4%2026-11-07 12:45
1xBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 49.97%EV -9.15%E -5.05%K -11.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.84%EV -9.66%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.18%EV -10.26%E -2.74%K -3.74%G +0.000%10.6%2026-11-07 12:35
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -8.15%E -4.45%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -9.66%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -13.62%E -3.78%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.0%2026-11-07 12:45
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -8.15%E -4.45%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -9.66%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -13.62%E -3.78%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.0%2026-11-07 12:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -8.15%E -4.45%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -9.66%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -13.62%E -3.78%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.0%2026-11-07 12:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -8.15%E -4.45%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -9.66%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -13.62%E -3.78%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.0%2026-11-07 12:45
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -9.65%E -5.36%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.66%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -13.62%E -3.78%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-07 12:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -9.65%E -5.36%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.66%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -13.62%E -3.78%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-07 12:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -9.65%E -5.36%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -9.66%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -13.62%E -3.78%K -5.24%G +0.000%11.9%2026-11-07 12:45
SportsBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 50.93%EV -14.17%E -8.29%K -19.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.88%EV -9.66%E -2.76%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.19%EV -13.62%E -3.78%K -5.24%G +0.000%14.8%2026-11-07 12:45
LeoVegas🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.38%EV -8.15%E -4.45%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.19%EV -10.95%E -3.17%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.42%EV -11.22%E -3.03%K -4.16%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-07 12:55
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.28%EV -9.65%E -5.36%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -12.24%E -3.60%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -13.62%E -3.78%K -5.24%G +0.000%12.7%2026-11-07 11:38
Unibet (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.20%EV -4.13%E -2.16%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -14.82%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -7.62%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-02 13:04
TABtouch🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.20%EV -4.13%E -2.16%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -14.82%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -7.62%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-02 13:04
Unibet (NL)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.20%EV -4.13%E -2.16%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -14.82%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -7.62%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-02 13:05
Casumo🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.20%EV -4.13%E -2.16%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -14.82%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -7.62%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-02 13:05
Grosvenor🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.20%EV -4.13%E -2.16%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -14.82%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -7.62%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-02 13:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.20%EV -4.13%E -2.16%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -14.82%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -7.62%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-02 13:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.20%EV -4.13%E -2.16%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -14.82%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -7.62%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-02 13:05
Unibet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.20%EV -4.13%E -2.16%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -14.82%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -7.62%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-02 13:04
ATG (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.20%EV -4.13%E -2.16%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -14.82%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -7.62%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-02 13:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.20%EV -4.13%E -2.16%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -14.82%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -7.62%E -1.98%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.6%2026-11-02 13:05
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.37%EV -9.65%E -5.36%K -12.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -14.82%E -4.49%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -10.02%E -2.67%K -3.64%G +0.000%12.5%2026-11-07 12:45
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 50.60%EV -14.67%E -8.63%K -20.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.47%EV -16.11%E -4.96%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.94%EV -10.02%E -2.67%K -3.64%G +0.000%16.3%2026-11-07 12:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.39%EV -8.15%E -4.45%K -9.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.67%EV -17.40%E -5.44%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.93%EV -11.22%E -3.03%K -4.16%G +0.000%12.9%2026-11-02 13:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.03%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.98%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.98%1.7%2026-11-07 12:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.03%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.98%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.98%1.7%2026-11-07 12:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.03%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.98%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.98%1.7%2026-11-07 12:45

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